Tourney FT Situation

5starpool

Ok, this is not so much about the result, but the situation given the number of players left, stacksizes, and payouts.

100 FO in Lukes last night, 5 handed.

SB - ~20k irrelevant to this hand
BB - AKQJT from boards, ~24.5k
UTG - John S (pit manager in Lukes) - ~70k, chipleader
CO - ~30k, irrelevant to this hand
Button - Me, ~59k

Payout is :

1st: 1300
2nd: 700
3rd: 500
4th: 250
5th: 100

I was the stortstack and the start of the FT, but have been getting more active, rarely getting called. I have acquired chips in a couple of biggish clashes too when I called with A7 vs KQ, and my 77 vs AQ. Previous hand, Mark (AKQJT) was UTG and raised, button though for ages and folded, I raised with QQ (not shown) and Mark folded.

Mark has been fairly active with little recent success, and has moved from around 50k to his present position. John S has been quite aggressive, raising and reraising a good bit, but showing a lot of good hands too, never been caught without them.

Ok, the hand.Blinds, 2k/4k/400, John raises UTG to 13k, folded to me, I look at JsJc. What to do here? I am comfortably second in chips, and am about to playing a big pot against the CL with JJ. I am not so sure this is a great idea, and briefly consider folding but then I chastise myself for being a big girl. I figure John for a pair 77+, or AJ+, so standard enough range.

I call, and then Mark goes all in on BB for 24.5k. John tries to go allin, until I point out that it is an underraise, so he calls, and I of course at this point call.

Flop is 8s6c2s (or similiar, def 2 spades and 1 club). John pushes, and I have 34k. There is ~76k in the middle. Easy call at this point? I call anyhow, as I think it is a straightforward call.

Ok, I won't post results yet obviously, but what I would like to know, allied with standard hand criticisms, is whether there is a case for folding preflop here given the situation, and him being the only player able to knock me out at this point? I pretty much never do in this situation, and it has got me in trouble before too often probably, but in a game where there is still some play left (although quite a bit reduced at this point), is folding a viable, possibly even correct option?

Cheers.

*Counterfeit*

I wouldn't criticise a fold, in fact it might be the correct move on the basis of furthering your payout position, but you weren't to know that the man behind you was going to ship. What I don't like is the flat call of John's open raise. What's your logic here/plan for the flop?

Mellor

It may be a call in terms of c+EV. Although marginal. This probably results in a €-EV when a ICM calc is run.

Ill try it give me a sec

Mellor

Ok, by folding you hand an equity of €723
Doubling up increased your ICM to €1009, including marks stack its 1108
To make the call against right you need to be 70%
JJ isn't 70% against the range you posted for John. Fold and let mark ship it.

RoundTower

I think this is a clear shove preflop.

ozpoker

Seems like a fold to me. Here's the ICM analysis:

JJ vs 77+, AJ+ has 56.4% equity.

Assuming no one else plays if you jam (may be a bad assumption in this case), and the big stack will call (he'll be getting (59 + 8 + 13) : (59 - 13), or ~1.5:1), the chip distributions and your ICM $EV are:

SB - 18k
BB - 20.5k
UTG - 11k
CO - 30k
Hero - Me, 124k

which works out to a $EV of $1033. So your EV(jam) = .564(1033) = $583

The chip distribution if you and everyone else folds is:

SB - 18k
BB - 20.5k
UTG - 78k
CO - 30k
Hero - 59k

which ICM gives a $EV of $728.

Obviously, you will gain from jamming if you have any fold equity, but usually players will fold the bottom part of their range and call with the stronger part of their range. If you could give estimates for this situation, we could factor it into the analysis.

The other thing increasing the complexity of the decision is when a player behind you decides to get involved as was the case in this hand. But this possibility should make the case for a fold even stronger.

-Oz-

[edit] oops, I see Mellor already ran these numbers

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Mr.Plough

RoundTower wrote:

I think this is a clear shove preflop.

.

Glowingmind

I Shove PF too. JJ should be miles ahead of any player's 5 handed PF raising range. If you're behind AA/KK/QQ then it's just bad luck, but the spots to get your chips in so strong at the FT will be few and far between.

*Counterfeit*

So basically fold or shove - certainly not a call though. Did you call the all-in on the flop?

Hitman Actual

RoundTower wrote:

I think this is a clear shove preflop.

With 15BBs, and without looking at any numbers, I would have thought so too.

5starpool

If I shove preflop, I am not getting called by anytihng other than AA, KK, QQ and AK I'd be fairly sure. Outside chance I think of TT/AQ calling.

Counterfeit, as mentioned, I did call the allin on the flop. Thanks for all the replies so far.

Flushdraw

I'd shove preflop and sit there like a pig in sh!t happy either to take it down preflop and increase my stack by 33%ish (21k), or else take a call from the CL and hope he turns over the anything bar AA,KK,QQ

The prizemoney isnt big enough to try and hang on to creep up the payout ladder so waiting to find a better spot isnt an option. You only have 15BB left, so pushing PF is the only option here IMO

*Counterfeit*

What were their hole cards?

bops

pushski

Hitman Actual

Here's some real quick numbers, I haven't really time for this. I've ignored JJ as one of his possible hands, and not considering what happens when there's action behind. I'm also not bothering to adjust for blinds taken out of stacks, I'm just taking the stacks as given in the OP. These factors make fcuk all difference to the result.

ICM Fold: €713.4

ICM Push:
Taking the range 77+, AQ+, assume he calls with QQ+, AK, and folds the rest. So he calls with 41% of hands and folds 59% of hands.

When he calls, our equity is JJ v QQ+, AK = 36%.

ICM if he folds is €821.5
ICM if he calls and we double up is €1022.5

=> ICM_push = 0.59(€821.5) + 0.41(€1022.5) = €904 [wrong!! see Edit]

So push is better than fold.

Apologies for the quick maths, I haven't time to go into details, and there may be some errors. Actually there probably are loads of errors!

Edit: Oops, serious error there!
ICM_push = 0.59(€821.5) + (0.41)(0.36)(€1022.5) = €636.06.

Okay, fold is better than push, sorry.

samelterrance

Hello,

I think I would lay this down.

With two players in it, and a large pot, the big blind is going to go all in regardless I think.
Also,
Am I correct in saying you're folding post flop to a large/all in bet regardless of what's on the board (unless you flop your set).

You're in a great position regarding chips, think folding would be the right play. In saying that, I don't think it's a straight forward fold.

DeadParrot

RoundTower wrote:

I think this is a clear shove preflop.

My thinking too, 15bbs, I'd happily take the CL raise and would be comfortable with a call (obv apart from QQ,KK,AA)

5starpool

samelterrance wrote:

Hello,

I think I would lay this down.

With two players in it, and a large pot, the big blind is going to go all in regardless I think.
Also,
Am I correct in saying you're folding post flop to a large/all in bet regardless of what's on the board (unless you flop your set).

You're in a great position regarding chips, think folding would be the right play. In saying that, I don't think it's a straight forward fold.

I certainly don't think the BB is shoving in with any two cards here.

Flushdraw

samelterrance wrote:

With two players in it, and a large pot, the big blind is going to go all in regardless I think.

What makes you think the big blind is going allin regardless?? He has 4k invested out of 24.5. Considering that the CL raised and the 2nd CL flatcalled, i'd be amazed if Mark pushed with anything other than QQ+, maybe AK just sneaking into his range

samelterrance

5starpool wrote:

I certainly don't think the BB is shoving in with any two cards here.

really ? Even though he's 2nd last in chips and there is more in the pot than his stack ? I would call, try get lucky and triple up.

But even on my second reason, why would you call, diminish your stack by over 13k, in a chance of hitting an 8/1 and then folding if you don't hit your set ?

Flushdraw

samelterrance wrote:

really ? Even though he's 2nd last in chips and there is more in the pot than his stack ? I would call, try get lucky and triple up.

But even on my second reason, why would you call, diminish your stack by over 13k, in a chance of hitting an 8/1 and then folding if you don't hit your set ?

lol

*Counterfeit*

5starpool wrote:

If I shove preflop, I am not getting called by anytihng other than AA, KK, QQ and AK I'd be fairly sure. Outside chance I think of TT/AQ calling.

Don't necessarily accept this assertion, unless it's read dependant based on history with the players. I'd put the range down as being much wider, A10+ and 88+ .

samelterrance

Flushdraw wrote:

lol

Any comments on your "lol" or is that it ?
I've posted MY opinion
you could at least backup your comments don't you think rather than laughing. This IS a forum isn't it, where people are allowed post comments without the ridicule ?

Van Dice

I don't know enough about ICM and cEV v $EV, but I would definitely shove anyway fwiw

Hitman Actual

*Counterfeit* wrote:

5starpool wrote:

If I shove preflop, I am not getting called by anytihng other than AA, KK, QQ and AK I'd be fairly sure. Outside chance I think of TT/AQ calling.

Don't necessarily accept this assertion, unless it's read dependant based on history with the players. I'd put the range down as being much wider, A10+ and 88+ .

Considering how much of a regular on the Dublin scene 5starpool is, then you can take his ranges/reads as being very good.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Flushdraw

samelterrance wrote:

Any comments on your "lol" or is that it ?
I've posted MY opinion
you could at least backup your comments don't you think rather than laughing. This IS a forum isn't it, where people are allowed post comments without the ridicule ?

I'd already replied to your last comment/similar to 5starpools reply and you came back with a new reply to Dom with started with the word ... Really?

Theres no way Mark is pushing here with ATC in the hope of getting lucky and trebling up. You dont put your money in a pot hoping to "get lucky", you put it in when you think you have the best hand, or have the odds to call, or if you think you can make the best hand fold and pushing with ATC doesnt meet any of these requirements.

The fact there is more in the pot than in his stack or that he is 2nd lowest on chips isnt an arguement for pushing.

And for your second point. I doubt Dom is calling here hoping to flop a set or else give up the hand. If Dom put the CL on AA,KK or QQ then he'd muck his hand PF and not call for set value

ozpoker

Van Dice wrote:

I don't know enough about ICM and cEV v $EV, but I would definitely shove anyway fwiw

Not to be snide, but this attitude is why there continues to be value in tourneys, as most players don't understand how stepped payouts have a massive effect on the hand values required to go to war. This entire thread (with 2 exceptions) is pretty good evidence for my position.

-Oz-

grey_abbey

Personally I shove because CL's range should be wider here imho. Payout structure makes it a closer decision though...

NickyOD

What Roundtower said. Push with no regrets. Way to big a hand to play passively at this point unless you sense being in real trouble.

EDIt. just spotted the ICM. Didn't expect it to be that close given the villain's range.

samelterrance

grey_abbey wrote:

Think you contradicted yourself a bit there.

How on earth did I contradict myself, I said this is a forum for comments,
yes, LOL is a fantastic comment !!!!!.

strewelpeter

If it wasn't an under raise and the CL had shoved would you call PF?

PF - without knowing the Action from the BB I don't think I can ever not shove JJ with these stacks and payouts.

NOW - Am I missing something here - as well as the 76 in the middle isn't there 30K more for you to call into the sidepot, so you could stay on 60K, score 136K and a massive CL or have your buy in back and an early night.
Its going to take a major accident to miss the top two if you win here.
Is there anyone saying you should fold now?

5starpool

samelterrance wrote:

really ? Even though he's 2nd last in chips and there is more in the pot than his stack ? I would call, try get lucky and triple up.

It would be out of character with his play and the table in general if he did this. I don't think he played all night to gamble with any 2 into a raise and a flat call. In my OP, I stated that he raised the previous hand and when I reraised he folded, depsite having put 8k in there. Actually come to think of it, were the blinds only 1500/3k???? Hmmm. That might change things a bit, not much mind though.

samelterrance wrote:

But even on my second reason, why would you call, diminish your stack by over 13k, in a chance of hitting an 8/1 and then folding if you don't hit your set ?

Where did I say I would fold if I didn't hit a set? I still called despite not hitting a set. True, if an A or K came on the flop I would likely fold to a push, and this is the main reason my preflop call may be iffy, as it allows me to be bluffed off it a lot. Q high flop and it's 50/50 I reckon a lot as to whether I call the inevitable push or not.

*Counterfeit* wrote:

Don't necessarily accept this assertion, unless it's read dependant based on history with the players. I'd put the range down as being much wider, A10+ and 88+ .

It pretty much is an assertion on the basis of several factors, and I would be amazed if his range to call a push was as wide as your above.

grey_abbey

samelterrance wrote:

How on earth did I contradict myself, I said this is a forum for comments,
yes, LOL is a fantastic comment !!!!!.

I was talking about your previous post when u said BB should call and try to get lucky and then stated the hero shouldn't call and try to get lucky.
Just what i got out of it, mayb you meant something else.

Regarding the lol post, its out of order yeah but fcuk it, its a forum, people dont have to be nice...

samelterrance

5starpool wrote:

Where did I say I would fold if I didn't hit a set?

Point taken starpool,
I would have presumed though with such a hesitant call to begin with, that the flop not in your favour in any way, it would be an instant fold to all-in.

samelterrance

grey_abbey wrote:

I was talking about your previous post when u said BB should call and try to get lucky and then stated the hero shouldn't call and try to get lucky.
Just what i got out of it, mayb you meant something else.

Regarding the lol post, its out of order yeah but fcuk it, its a forum, people dont have to be nice...

You're right, people don't have to be nice, I was suggesting a more description response to backup the LOL, that's all...

*Counterfeit*

5starpool wrote:

It pretty much is an assertion on the basis of several factors, and I would be amazed if his range to call a push was as wide as your above.

Even though he'll get 2.2/1 the worst of it with his two cards?
And the chance to guarantee at least a third place finish, not to mention a monster chip lead?
I think you may be showing too much respect here...

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Flushdraw

grey_abbey wrote:

I was talking about your previous post when u said BB should call and try to get lucky and then stated the hero shouldn't call and try to get lucky.
Just what i got out of it, mayb you meant something else.

Regarding the lol post, its out of order yeah but fcuk it, its a forum, people dont have to be nice...

Meh, i'm a nice guy..just found the post funny and samel didnt understand why so i explained it.

Valor would have got away with it...:p

Van Dice

ozpoker wrote:

Not to be snide, but this attitude is why there continues to be value in tourneys, as most players don't understand how stepped payouts have a massive effect on the hand values required to go to war. This entire thread (with 2 exceptions) is pretty good evidence for my position.

-Oz-

I didn't say I knew nothing about them, what I really meant was that I would be surprised if this turned out to be a fold, as it would not even be remotely close in a cash game. So the payout structure effects would need to be very large to turn this into a fold. Just my 2c.
And I doubt it's my attitude that contributes to good tournament player's earnings

ozpoker

LuckyLloyd wrote:

What I am saying is that I think many thinking tourney players will shove in this situation. I think your grasp of the fundamentals would be beyond extremely solid if you automatically work out that folding pre - flop is the correct play.

I can't honestly say that I would fold 100% of the time, but I've worked through enough of these situations to know that jamming isn't the clear play like so many in this thread seem to think. I've folded in similar spots in the past, so I could probably find one here.

-Oz-

Lafortezza

Does the CL try to reshove preflop with AA or KK all the time?

*Counterfeit*

ozpoker wrote:

I can't honestly say that I would fold 100% of the time, but I've worked through enough of these situations to know that jamming isn't the clear play like so many in this thread seem to think. I've folded in similar spots in the past, so I could probably find one here.

-Oz-

It's either jam or fold though, you accept that?

Van Dice

I also think the hand range you are giving the chip leader is way too tight, he's an aggressive chipleader 5-handed, I don't believe 77+, AJ+ is realistic

5starpool

strewelpeter wrote:

If it wasn't an under raise and the CL had shoved would you call PF?

PF - without knowing the Action from the BB I don't think I can ever not shove JJ with these stacks and payouts.

NOW - Am I missing something here - as well as the 76 in the middle isn't there 30K more for you to call into the sidepot, so you could stay on 60K, score 136K and a massive CL or have your buy in back and an early night.
Its going to take a major accident to miss the top two if you win here.
Is there anyone saying you should fold now?

I don't think anyone has suggested it is a fold having got to the flop as I did.

If it was not an underraise, I would have had a right good old think about it, and the sidepot factor - basically neutral for me, plus the chance to knock out a dangerous player would probably have resulted in me calling if this was the case.

Overall, my thinking here preflop, flawed and all as it may have been, is as follows.

1. If I shove I am not getting called by a worse hand, unless AK, which is a flip essentially. I am not particularly factoring in the 2 players yet to act.
2. If I call and lose, I will still be second in chips, and despite the increasing blinds, I still fancied my chances.
3. Shoving and losing would be poor play (although unfortunate he had a big hand) I thought at the time given the stacks and prizemoney.
4. Result was more important nearly than the money as in general I have been playing quite poorly.
5. If I call and money goes in on the non A/K flop, then as well as the times I am behind, I catch the times where he shoves with a hand I beat. If the two of us get to the flop, there will be ~33k in the middle, so he shoves no matter what he has at this point. Maybe this point is wrong though, but this is a (flawed?) concept that I am using more lately as a bluff catcher.

ozpoker

*Counterfeit* wrote:

It's either jam or fold though, you accept that?

Unquestionably.

5starpool

Van Dice wrote:

I also think the hand range you are giving the chip leader is way too tight, he's an aggressive chipleader 5-handed, I don't believe 77+, AJ+ is realistic

Quite possibly, but as I mentioned, he had been getting good cards a lot by his own admission, so it can be easy to look aggressive when he had been getting lots of good cards, so this may have skewed my thinking slightly, but at the time thins is pretty much what I thought. Possibly I might extend it to include 55-66 and A7s+, but at the time I was't really including these.

5starpool

lafortezza wrote:

Does the CL try to reshove preflop with AA or KK all the time?

In this situation, I would be surprised if he did not, esp with KK. We were not deep enough not to imo.

ollyk1

5starpool wrote:

I 3. Shoving and losing would be poor play (although unfortunate he had a big hand) I thought at the time given the stacks and prizemoney.

Results based thinking?? or is losing a hand always a bad play in your book Dom???

This has to be push or fold. Flat calling isn't good imo and if your thinking at the time is that shoving and getting called is bad (and Oz tells us mathematically it is bad) and you think its 50/50 on whether he calls a shove or not then its a fold.

Interesting that JohnS missed the stacks sizes of the blinds and that his raise to 13k has created a situation where he can't reraise. He's obviously not a regular tournie player then to me.

If John had not been picking on the shortstack blinds without a hand at the FT I think i might find a fold here. Also if its unusual for him to raise utg it lends weight to a fold.

I guess in conclusion i'd want to fold here but sometimes my hand would push my stack all-in!! :eek:

ianmc38

I like a fold here.