Interesting 100nl Hand

dvdfan

Noble Poker 0.50/1.00, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Button ($98.50)
SB ($204.20)
BB Hero ($131.20)
UTG ($150.95)
UTG+1 ($99.50)
CO ($1.90)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with 9 9
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 4.00, 3 folds, Hero calls 3.00.

Flop (8.50) T 5 7
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 7.00, Hero calls 7.00.

Turn (22.50) 8
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 15.00, Hero ?????


Ok this was a hard hand for me, Villain is 16/13/2.78 Went to SD 27% And Won at SD 62%, hes flop aggression is large 5.5 and hes turn and river are in the 1-1.5 region.

I ran through pokerstove what i taught was hes calling range if i made a 3bet here considering hes PFR is 13% and hes Raising from EP:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,540 games 0.031 secs 49,677 games/sec

Board: Td 5s 7d 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.377% 28.38% 00.00% 437 0.00 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 71.623% 71.62% 00.00% 1103 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 88-77, 55, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, QdJd }

So i dont think hes folding enough to make that profitable. But my question is in this scenario how would you estimate your outs, if he has a flush i only have 2 outs but if he has set i have 14-16 outs, what do you usually do in this situation to estimate your outs.

And while your there what do you do in this situation, i suppose the answer to the last question has a big bearing on that but id be interested in replies.

cooker3

Well the problem with calling is that he likely shuts down if you hit with your outs as 4 diamonds or 4 to straight will scare him, if you hit a 9 then there is a straight on board and going by your read then calling is unprofitable.

Do you think he can fold an overpair?
In that case you can try raising him now as how you played it looks awfully like a draw but giving your read folding is ok although I highly doubt I do that in the heat of battle.

Killme00

dvdfan wrote:

Flop (8.50) T 5 7
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 7.00, Hero calls 7.00.

Turn (22.50) 8
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 15.00, Hero

I am inclined to check raise here representing the diamonds. I would fold to a push

CaptainNemo

Killme00 wrote:

I am inclined to check raise here representing the diamonds. I would fold to a push

I like a call here.

You do have 2 outs to the pure nuts and a good chance of getting paid off if you do hit, since you have so many flushes in his range.

If he has an overpair then a call is as good as a raise since he will probably not bet at it again as the board is so scary.

If you go raise/fold then you allow yourself to be pushed off a very good draw by a hand you have a very good chance of beating with 1 more card, such as a set.

If he bets out on the river and you have only improved to a straight or a 10 high flush then you could use your own judgement but I would probably fold.

fuzzbox

CaptainNemo wrote:

I like a call here.

You do have 2 outs to the pure nuts and a good chance of getting paid off if you do hit, since you have so many flushes in his range.

If he has an overpair then a call is as good as a raise since he will probably not bet at it again as the board is so scary.

If you go raise/fold then you allow yourself to be pushed off a very good draw by a hand you have a very good chance of beating with 1 more card, such as a set.

If he bets out on the river and you have only improved to a straight or a 10 high flush then you could use your own judgement but I would probably fold.

... erm ... I dont like any of this.

Killme00

fuzzbox wrote:

... erm ... I dont like any of this.

What do you like? :rolleyes:

Van Dice

I just fold, I hate playing against nits like this guy

CaptainNemo

Killme00 wrote:

What do you like? :rolleyes:

Yes I'd be interested too...I don't post my opinion so people will go "Oh baby that's so money" but in the hope that people who disagree will tell me why...aren't we all friends here helping each other to improve? Maybe I'm playing the wrong game...

sikes

I would certainly fold now against this opp.

Captain:

1) Calling to hit a two outer and getting paid isnt going to be profitable at all. So we need to get paid other ways.

2) If we raise, we could get him to fold said over pair, thats great news.

3) If we raise, and then he pushes, we have a pretty easy decision either way, though I doubt we have enough to allow us to raise fold, but it depends on what we think he is capable of.

I much prefer to raise or fold.

RasTa

Easy fold because it's the easy thing to do! There is no real point in raising after a nit fired twice with a p/f raise.

dvdfan

hmmm, how would a 16/13/2.78 play a combo here if i re-raised and if so is 3betting and folding a profitable move?? I havent nor has anyone else been making any moves that would suggest our actions are out of line.

My real question here is how many outs do you estimate we have and why? We cant make our next decision until we know this so how many and why???????

Van Dice

dvdfan wrote:

My real question here is how many outs do you estimate we have and why? We cant make our next decision until we know this so how many and why???????

What do you think his range is? His raising range UTG is very tight anyway, and what part of that do you think he fires again on the turn?

dvdfan

Van Dice wrote:

What do you think his range is? His raising range UTG is very tight anyway, and what part of that do you think he fires again on the turn?

I defined his calling range above but id say hes raising range is AK-AT, KQ, 55-AA and less likely QJs, and JTs and A9s

Hectorjelly

Well calling has the advantage of keeping the pot smallish and inducing action from worse hands. In actual play I would tend to call here if I thought there was a reasnable chance my hand was best. He may be tight but many tight players will cb with nothing, He picks up the diamond draw on the turn and follows through. Also I like a call here because i think if we hit our flush our opponent will play very honestly, so we cant make a mistake.

If the stacks were a little bigger I think a turn small raise then push on river is the best play if we have a good image, he can only call with a flush and since he raised in early position its far more likely he has a set or overpair.

I dont like just raising the turn because that turn bet usually (not always) means the player is committed to seeing the river at least. IE he has either a pair including the ace of diamonds, a set, or an overpair he isn't folding. A raise and then a push is much stronger than a single raise.

cooker3

Hectorjelly wrote:

He may be tight but many tight players will cb with nothing, He picks up the diamond draw on the turn and follows through.

Do you really think a tight player would fire a second barrel with nothing or even a draw after a card which completes every draw imaginable hits. I would imagine most would shut up shop fairly sharpish.

spectre

I call here. Trying to push players off overpairs at this level is folly, even on this board. Value bet a rivered straight. Check all other rivers

Folding seems awfully weak

bops

cooker3 wrote:

Do you really think a tight player would fire a second barrel with nothing or even a draw after a card which completes every draw imaginable hits. I would imagine most would shut up shop fairly sharpish.

a tight player that cbet with Ad Kx/Qx maybe?

i like hectors line here - the call is good

sikes

We are OOP, we are going to find it difficult to extract value if we do hit a straight or a flush.

CaptainNemo

bops wrote:

i like hectors line here - the call is good

I claim precedence

dvdfan

Result:

Noble Poker 0.50/1.00, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Button ($98.50)
SB ($204.20)
BB Hero ($131.20)
UTG ($150.95)
UTG+1 ($99.50)
CO ($1.90)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with 9 9
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 4.00, 3 folds, Hero calls 3.00.

Flop (8.50) T 5 7
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 7.00, Hero calls 7.00.

Turn (22.50) 8
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 15.00, Hero raises to 78.50, UTG+1 moves all-in for 73.50, Hero calls 10.00.

River (199.50) A

Hero shows 9 9
UTG+1 shows Q K

UTG+1 wins 199.50 with Flush (Diamonds) with King high

I went with a push but didnt like it hence my post. I mean at the time in the 30 seconds or so i had to compute i struggled to come up with a good line. I hated folding because i had a huge amount of outs against a set, 2 pair was never in his range on that flop and a push here gives him a horrible decision with a set or any drawing hand, a set, Flush Draw and Flush were the 3 most likely hands here.

Unfortunately hes hand was strong but in heinsight i probably dont have good implied odds and im only getting 2.5/1 on the call. Alot of this hinges on what were putting the villain on and its a very hard hand to narrow a range on that board OOP and fold/call/raise all could argue a good case depending on what hand you put him on.

So i could call the turn and check/fold to any river unimproved. If i complete the straight on a non diamond river i think im getting all in on the river but how often am i getting called by a worse hand? Same if i hit my set we now have a T987 board, what hand calls me on that board that i beat?

if the river comes a diamond i complete my weak flush and he pushes i have a hard decision because A,K,Q,J make up the vast majority of hes range so if he pushes a diamond river its most likely with one of these which beats my flush, so if im calling for implied odds how often will i get a caller if i push on the river with a straight/set or a flush on that board so i may be getting into a situation where im not getting paid off much if i improve on the river after calling and when i do get a caller or someone pushes when i improve on that river im not going to be ahead that often either. Based on that i think a fold as weak as it may sound may be best on that board.

Thanks for the replies