National Hunt Season 2007/08

Colonel Sanders

Since the Cheltenham thread was locked I've asked could I set up a thread to discuss the forthcoming National Hunt season seeing as most people seem to be looking forward to it and prefer jumps to Flat.

Any opinions welcome including horses to follow, ante post value etc.

Please no abusing each other in this thread, we don't want it to be closed again!!!

jimmyboy

Can anyone tell me whats the story with Kicking King and War of Attrition? Any chance we could see either of them this season?

Colonel Sanders

I heard an inerview with Conor Clarkson just before last year's Cheltenham festival. Said KK was going back in training but if he didn't look like he'd be able to compete at a high level they'd retire him.

No idea about WOA.

PS is Aran Concerto really out for the season?

Morgans

Brave Inca is out until the new year at least, and probably for the full year. There must be a chance that he will be retired if not recapturing his form. Twenty years ago, he would have been an ideal Gold Cup candidate, but had the speed to win twice over 2m at the festival. Great horse for his connections and trainer. (And a superb training performance throughout his entire career)

fr wishy washy

Afaik,Kicking King is back doing light work and they're just taking it week by week with him.

Shame about Brave Inca.

masterK

fr wishy washy wrote:

Afaik,Kicking King is back doing light work and they're just taking it week by week with him.

Shame about Brave Inca.

Real shame about Brave Inca, despite what Murphy is saying the odds must be against him ever reappearing.

knighted

does any one on here venture over to cheltenham in november for the open meeting ?
i go to the festival every year but might go to the open this year as well for a change

qzy

I have been over for the Open meeting (and the Pillar) and really enjoyed it - easy to move around, get a pint etc. I can recommend it!

Colonel Sanders

went last year for the saturday and sunday and going again this year. Quality racing and not the kind of crowds at the festival. A great weekend

knighted

yeah i want to see the place non festival just for a change

mdwexford

Festival ftw!!!

The crowds are what makes it imo.

Id like to go to the Tingle Creek meeting, anyone ever go??

Colonel Sanders

Been to the 'meeting' once (2004, go on Moscow!!) but have gone over on a day trip for the saturday the last 2 yrs (and have a flight booked for this year again). The friday isn't great but the saturday is well worth it.

finbarrk

Yeah, the November meeting is supposed to be great craic, I'm going to try it this season for a change.

knighted

the way im starting to see things is that if you book far enuff in advance it works out quite affordable to go to england for some of thier big race days in comparision to going to a festival over here -for example the galway festival leopardstown christmas punchestown -i usually go to the henessy ,pierce and the champion after christmas but this season i think i will cross the water for a few i havent been to -starting to get bored with leopardstown anyway ,too many 'ross o carroll kellys' for my liking

Colonel Sanders

I go across to england as often as I can. Rarely pay more tha 50 quid for the return ticket (thank you ryanair!!) and since its only day trips no worries about rip off luggage charges etc. Got tingle creeks flights for 26 quid return (inc all taxes). Open meeting cost 68 return to birmingham (leaving saturday morning, coming back monday). Have a flight booked for the pillar too and that also cost 26 quid. Next on the list is a visit to newbury for either the hennessy or the Aon chase-tote gold trophy card in February. Altho that might have to wait til 2009!!

zuzu

is there any offical date that the national hunt season starts??
is it the 1st of september??

knighted

it officially starts the day after the old one stops ie the first of may but traditionally it is seen to start end of oct start of nov when the flat is winding down -no top class horses out b4 then

knighted

Colonel Sanders wrote:

I go across to england as often as I can. Rarely pay more tha 50 quid for the return ticket (thank you ryanair!!) and since its only day trips no worries about rip off luggage charges etc. Got tingle creeks flights for 26 quid return (inc all taxes). Open meeting cost 68 return to birmingham (leaving saturday morning, coming back monday). Have a flight booked for the pillar too and that also cost 26 quid. Next on the list is a visit to newbury for either the hennessy or the Aon chase-tote gold trophy card in February. Altho that might have to wait til 2009!!

jaysus u must have a ball -work commitments have stopped me in the past committing to so many trips but as i said im starting to see things differently now so i think i will start booking ,but am deffo going the open to start with

Colonel Sanders

I work Monday to Friday so its no hassle to do a day trip on a saturday. I work in Dublin too so I don't have to worry about getting to the airport.

Colonel Sanders

zuzu wrote:

is there any offical date that the national hunt season starts??
is it the 1st of september??

I always go by the Charlie Hall chase, thats when the quality jumps meetings return with a bang.

Mr Brightside

Colonel Sanders wrote:

I always go by the Charlie Hall chase, thats when the quality jumps meetings return with a bang.

Yeah charlie hall where we start too!! Have the irish got anything this year for the charlie hall or even any 3m+ races to take on kauto,denman+mwds?? Even if WOA and KK come back they canna live with that 3??

Mr Brightside

masterK wrote:

Real shame about Brave Inca, despite what Murphy is saying the odds must be against him ever reappearing.

Even if he did make a comeback,would you want to back him? No chance,best left alone and retire him now! He has taken some beatens from mccoy anyway!!

Sir Denman

Colonel Sanders wrote:

Since the Cheltenham thread was locked I've asked could I set up a thread to discuss the forthcoming National Hunt season seeing as most people seem to be looking forward to it and prefer jumps to Flat.

Any opinions welcome including horses to follow, ante post value etc.

Please no abusing each other in this thread, we don't want it to be closed again!!!

Colonel- Apologies for getting the Cheltenham thread closed, that was out of order, got carried away and no need for it. I enjoyed the banter but shame it was taken so personally, no offence intended to anyone.

All the best.

knighted

Mr Brightside wrote:

Yeah charlie hall where we start too!! Have the irish got anything this year for the charlie hall or even any 3m+ races to take on kauto,denman+mwds?? Even if WOA and KK come back they canna live with that 3??

prob not up to the standards of these but i will be keeping an eye on micheal o briens in compliance this season over 3 miles -plauged by sickness in the yard last year i dont think we have seen the best of this horse yet and i have him down as a possible improver

de valira might give the two mile hurdlers something to thing about -form last year is hard to work out having won on a varity of ground conditions ,but floping at cheltenham ,i will give him the benifit of my doubt and hope he has come on over the summer as i liked this horse since i seen him win his bumper (ran twice at leopardstown wins twice ,ran twice won twice at fairyhouse ,3 runs at punchestown no wins 2 places and an u/r-)
trying to see a pattern ,maybe just me but he might like the flater galloping tracks thought fairyhouse not so flat but i think you can see where im coming from

will add more later

Colonel Sanders

De Valira's a horse to watch alright. I had a nice ew bet on him the day he beat arrive sir clive at fairyhouse in his maiden hurdle. Any idea if he definately stays hurdling or goes over fences?

knighted

i can find out soon -if it were up to me i would keep him hurdling as i dont think he ready for fences and with a lack of top class 2m hurdlers around he should collect a few decent pots provided he has come on over the summer but i really think he could be an improving horse -im trawling through races from last year trying to find or identify possible improvers so as i post i would appreciate peoples comments and views -you never know we could find some decent winners between us

knighted

just from memory i remember devil winds another o brien horse running in some very good bumpers without winning ,but that wouldnt bother me as we all know some top class bumper horses never went on to anything big but i remember watching devil winds and thinking he needed further than two miles -maybe a 21/2 -3m hurdler to watch -i will watch his races later and give more detailed comment then

knighted

just going thru the ratings- http://www.turfclub.ie/site/ratingsnh.pdf

and it appears that devalira and catch me are our two top rated novices at around the 140 mark -doesnt fill me with confidence looking at the rest as we seem to have a whole lot of moderate hurdlers to follow this season

farmer brown rated 143 been talked about as a champion hurdle contender for next year ?

havent done the chase ratings yet

Morgans

I dont think either are good enough really. In Compliance has some chance of progressing, but he would need to be getting closer to Neptune Collonges over 3m on good ground than what he did at punchestown to be considered a gold cup contender. Has to be a huge doubt that he stays 3m. Not for me. Could pick up some of the handy 2m4f chases not contested by the top performers.

De Valira is on 140 - Ebaziyan 146, Clopf 142, Wins Now 140. Too many bad runs for me, including an awful one at punch before the festival.

O'Brien is a fantastic trainer of young horses, but very few of his ever seem to progress. Forget the Past gold cup run was something of an exception. I would think that De Valira could have a profitable season in novice chases without being good enough to challenge the best in any discipline.

Colonel Sanders

I think far too much was made of In compliance's defeat of WOA in the John Durkan last year. It was obvious that WOA was being aimed at one race and one race only last year. His seasonal debut looked impressive but watson lake is very in and out and is most certainly a 2m chaser rather than a stayer.

A horse I was thinking could make a decent novice chase prospect for this season was arrive sir clive. First time I saw him in the flesh was hennessy day ad he looked every inch a chaser (as did aran concerto). Hopefuly he'll do better than Vic Venturi did for connections ast year.

I think the champion hurdle is a poor enough race this year, however I still reckon bob's pride is my 'if he wins I'll give up' horse this year. DK Weld's cheltenham record is abysmal. You could possibly make a case for him at around the 50/1 mark but 20s is a joke. Maybe a horse coming off the flat could make a big impression this year. As i stated before I've heard Ask has been bought to go hurdling (He's ran in the name of new 'Irish sounding' owners his last 2 runs, maybe more) but that might never happen if he has a decent back end of the flat season.

knighted

Morgans wrote:

I dont think either are good enough really. In Compliance has some chance of progressing, but he would need to be getting closer to Neptune Collonges over 3m on good ground than what he did at punchestown to be considered a gold cup contender. Has to be a huge doubt that he stays 3m. Not for me. Could pick up some of the handy 2m4f chases not contested by the top performers.

De Valira is on 140 - Ebaziyan 146, Clopf 142, Wins Now 140. Too many bad runs for me, including an awful one at punch before the festival.

O'Brien is a fantastic trainer of young horses, but very few of his ever seem to progress. Forget the Past gold cup run was something of an exception. I would think that De Valira could have a profitable season in novice chases without being good enough to challenge the best in any discipline.

i note your points and agree to an extent -have you noticed anything that we could class as an improver for the coming season as ive said we seem to have a moderate bunch of hurdlers coming thru that it might be dominated by ex flat horses and hopefully something might come out of the bumper ranks

Mr Brightside

knighted wrote:

just going thru the ratings- http://www.turfclub.ie/site/ratingsnh.pdf

and it appears that devalira and catch me are our two top rated novices at around the 140 mark -doesnt fill me with confidence looking at the rest as we seem to have a whole lot of moderate hurdlers to follow this season

farmer brown rated 143 been talked about as a champion hurdle contender for next year ?

havent done the chase ratings yet

What was sublimity rated at this time last year? Does it really make a diffo?

knighted

sublimity was rated 138 at this stage last year ,dont know if it makes a difference cause i personally think his mark was too low based on what he done -but it gives us something to go on

Morgans

Seems like Aran Concerto might in fact be running this season. From the RP

"Another talented Irish hurdler, Aran Concerto, is due to return to trainer Noel Meade's yard in the near future having spent the past few months under the care of Newmarket vet Ian Wright recovering from a hock injury sustained at the end of last season.
Meade said on Friday: "The latest word is that the horse has made good progress and is back in good exercise. He'll be back with us during the month and then it will be a case of getting him fit and, hopefully, starting him off over fences before the end of the year.

"We'll have to see how he progresses when he goes back into training and it's much too soon to say when he will be back in action."

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote:

Seems like Aran Concerto might in fact be running this season.

Good news. There had been nothing on the betfair forum about it either so I had my fingers crossed he was OK

Colonel Sanders

Field commander looked a nice horse when winning at the galway festival and won again today to make it 4 in a row. Giving strangely brown 10lbs and a 4l beating is a pretty smart performance. Could make a good chaser in time (2008/09 season!!)

Mr Brightside

Colonel Sanders wrote:

Good news. There had been nothing on the betfair forum about it either so I had my fingers crossed he was OK

Any reasons why?

Colonel Sanders

In terms of some of the early season handicaps, what are people's ideas?

Don't push it was a horse I had my eye on forthe Paddy Power but he's hardly well treated off a mark of 149 (I think). He could still be interesting in this race but i thought he'd get a slightly easier mark. He has course form in an excellent 2nd to Denman in last year's november meeting when he might have been slightly unlucky when making a terrible error.

Does anyone know what mark Denman got? Surely the Hennessy is an early season option?

mdwexford

I agree Dont Push It could be interesting this year.

I dont know what mark Denman got but you'd have to think it would be very high maybe 163ish. Nicholls is not afraid to run top class horses in handicaps, Strong Flow and Azertyuiop to mention 2 recent ones but i dont think he'll risk it.
The Lexus would be a nice early target, soft field and nice prize money providing the grounds not a bog.

Colonel Sanders

Considering Nicholls said he's gonna keep Denman and Kauto star apart til the festival a few trips to Ireland surely look on the cards. Was thinking maybe the hennessy as, as you say MD, he's never afraid to run good horses. Strong Flow and also Cornish Rebel after a placed run in the RSA (altho Cornish rebel is obviosuly not in Denman's league!)

Roll on the charlie hall when we are rid of this flat rubbish and back to the REAL racing!!!!

EDIT: Just checked Denman's profile on the racingpost website. No rating published but he has a racingpost rating of 165. I was thinking 160ish.

Sir Denman

Denman 161 official.

Gungadu his Hennessy horse.

mdwexford

Where did you see the official marks out of interest SD??

I wasnt too far off, handicapping is easy, lol.

Gungadu makes sense as his Hennessy horse alright

Sir Denman

mdwexford wrote:

Where did you see the official marks out of interest SD??

I wasnt too far off, handicapping is easy, lol.

Gungadu makes sense as his Hennessy horse alright

Heres the link MD, hope you are fine.
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/media/2.5.5.2.asp

Mr Brightside

Sir Denman wrote:

Heres the link MD, hope you are fine.
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/media/2.5.5.2.asp

Nice thread? Have to admit cheltenham festval far more better craic and had more points to discuss? Always need peoples points off view,good or bad? Not the backslapping fencesitters? Come back sir denman and morgans???

rynners

Hi Guys,
Am new enough to this forum, but looking for some opinions on a horse I have in training and you all seem to know your stuff so here goes.

5yr old gelding, bought feb 2006 (private) for 26k on advice of TOP NH trainer. He's a half brother to "More than a stroll" by Rudimentary out of Jenny's Child. Big Horse (bit of giant really). Hasn't run yet as got pin fired last year. Will run in month or 2 with luck. I was told he was a little bit hoopy on the hind when I bought him, told this year that he moves much better than last year on the gallops (pin fired/time off prob sorted that). Am moving abroad within next year and will only keep if he's graded race quality (coming back once a month for donkey derbys wouldn't be on).

Guess I'm looking for opinion on the following, I think he's probably a chaser in the making given his size (and half brother), but by rudimentary he should have a little pace for hurdles, (though more than a stroll was 3 mile chaser) when should I expect him to be at his best? Over hurdles in next year or is it a definate wait for the fences when he turns say 7? Do rudimentaries (?) have success at the hurdles or fences in general?
thanks for any comments

btw big horses need big checkbooks, don't buy em big!

mdwexford

Sir Denman wrote:

Heres the link MD, hope you are fine.
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/media/2.5.5.2.asp

Nice one SD.

I am very good thanks, you need to start posting more btw, dont let the rubbish from the other thread stop you, there are not many decent posters on here so more good opinions are welcomed.

mdwexford

rynners wrote:

Hi Guys,
Am new enough to this forum, but looking for some opinions on a horse I have in training and you all seem to know your stuff so here goes.

5yr old gelding, bought feb 2006 (private) for 26k on advice of TOP NH trainer. He's a half brother to "More than a stroll" by Rudimentary out of Jenny's Child. Big Horse (bit of giant really). Hasn't run yet as got pin fired last year. Will run in month or 2 with luck. I was told he was a little bit hoopy on the hind when I bought him, told this year that he moves much better than last year on the gallops (pin fired/time off prob sorted that). Am moving abroad within next year and will only keep if he's graded race quality (coming back once a month for donkey derbys wouldn't be on).

Guess I'm looking for opinion on the following, I think he's probably a chaser in the making given his size (and half brother), but by rudimentary he should have a little pace for hurdles, (though more than a stroll was 3 mile chaser) when should I expect him to be at his best? Over hurdles in next year or is it a definate wait for the fences when he turns say 7? Do rudimentaries (?) have success at the hurdles or fences in general?
thanks for any comments

btw big horses need big checkbooks, don't buy em big!

Hi rynners,

To be honest breeding is not my strong point but from your description i would suggest he will be at his best when he takes to fences but obviously that is not to say he cant be successful over hurdles, look at Denman, Keen Leader, Aran Concerto et al.

Best of luck with him anyway.

rynners

thanks WD, guess I'll have a much better idea once he runs. Named Archaeologist with N. Meade. Keep an eye out end sept/october.

Fanny Wank

Must say if I'd only one horse in training (no idea if you have one or more) I'd definately give it to a smaller trainer. Noel Meade is obviously one of the leading trainers andthis is usully reflectedd in the price of his runners.

Leonard Whitmore would be my man. A shrewd cookie and certainly knows what to do when he gets a decent one.

Colonel Sanders

Fanny **** wrote:

Must say if I'd only one horse in training (no idea if you have one or more) I'd definately give it to a smaller trainer. Noel Meade is obviously one of the leading trainers andthis is usully reflectedd in the price of his runners.

Leonard Whitmore would be my man. A shrewd cookie and certainly knows what to do when he gets a decent one.

I'd agree with this, the smaller you go the more attention the trainer can give you and your horse. Some very good smaller trainers out there who'll as good a job for lower fees and as was pointed out you'll get a better price if you decide to have a punt.

Leonard Whitmore is a very good trainer IMO also, but he's not the only one. Charles Byrnes is another but the cat is well and truly out of the bag with him.

knighted

rynners wrote:

Hi Guys,
Am new enough to this forum, but looking for some opinions on a horse I have in training and you all seem to know your stuff so here goes.

5yr old gelding, bought feb 2006 (private) for 26k on advice of TOP NH trainer. He's a half brother to "More than a stroll" by Rudimentary out of Jenny's Child. Big Horse (bit of giant really). Hasn't run yet as got pin fired last year. Will run in month or 2 with luck. I was told he was a little bit hoopy on the hind when I bought him, told this year that he moves much better than last year on the gallops (pin fired/time off prob sorted that). Am moving abroad within next year and will only keep if he's graded race quality (coming back once a month for donkey derbys wouldn't be on).

Guess I'm looking for opinion on the following, I think he's probably a chaser in the making given his size (and half brother), but by rudimentary he should have a little pace for hurdles, (though more than a stroll was 3 mile chaser) when should I expect him to be at his best? Over hurdles in next year or is it a definate wait for the fences when he turns say 7? Do rudimentaries (?) have success at the hurdles or fences in general?
thanks for any comments

btw big horses need big checkbooks, don't buy em big!

hows things -heres my tuppence worth-if he were mine i would start him off in a point to point if your only going to keep him a year plus this is a shop window for all the big boys
you didnt state how many hands high he is to give us an idea of size ,but if you intend selling him the top buyers over here of nh horses want a big horse ,over 16hands 1 or 2 with the looks and conformation to match -
when you say 'hoopy' do you mean slight bend or curved behind?which shouldnt be a real problem but could knock a few grand off his price
pin firing is grand and strenghtens the legs especially needed with big horses


if he is a problem horse you should take the other guys advice and consider a smaller yard as he will get much more attention as he is probably getting lost in a big yard -plus a big horse costs the same to keep as a small horse there shouldnt really be that much expense on your part until he in full training -

noel meade should know soon how pacey he is if he works him in a string with some of his bumper winners ,meade knows his stuff but at the end of the day it was bought on trainers advice so he not going to be able to tell you he is a bag of muck ,that would make him look bad and you will lose prob 50 k at this stage so you have to assess the horse yourself ,the pros and cons financially -anybody on here can give you advice but we are not paying the bills ,you could have a superstar on your hands or you could have donkey -nobody really knows till they actually hit the racetrack proper -
so if you think he going to make a chaser you should really think about the point to point scene if he wins a point you will recoup your investment or at least know your horse can race -

the very best of luck with him ,i see he hasnt been entered in any thing yet but i will watch with interest ,i hope it goes well for you but dont let your heart rule your wallet -if you have any doubts this early on and he wins for you accept if an offer is made for him

and as you ask about pace for hurdles ,if you want him to be graded class at least ,you will have to take on the ex flat horses in that sphere or class so its a handicap for a big horse to start with -

but the main thing is to enjoy


ps.
if he wins the gold cup for you you have to buy everyone on here a drink ,