$2 $4 Strange hand

Hectorjelly

A friend of mine played this hand and I thought it was interesting. I may have some of the details slightly wrong.

$2/4, we are on the BB with ATo. Several limpers and we check.

The flop is TT9r. We check, button bets and we call.

Turn is a 6 putting two clubs on the board. We lead out 2/3 pot and the button calls.

The river is a nine of clubs, for a board of Tc Tx 9c 9x 6c.

Just to make it clear, we have the nut house, no other house beats us. 99 and 78c are the only two hands we have to worry about.

We lead out for about 70 into the pot of 100. Villain pushes, its about 450 to call. Call or fold?

Villain is loose and not great. We've never seen him bluff, but havent been paying him much attention.

ligger

I can't fold here. I think most of the time you see the other Ten in his hand. Pretty sick if he has the Straight flush or quads

OutOfPosition

insta call, chop chop a lot of the time if not take it here
http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=318578

phantom_lord

I think i'd let it go.

OutOfPosition

phantom_lord wrote:

I think i'd let it go.

explain pls

Hectorjelly

OutOfPosition wrote:

insta call, chop chop a lot of the time if not take it here
http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=318578

No its not an insta-call, and I would appreciate it if you don't direct my threads to the bbv sticky, especially when you do so in a post that gives away your inexperience. I didn't play this hand, I didn't post it because I wanted sympathy. I posted it because I felt that there is actually an interesting and unusual decision on the river. Its common practice amongst players who have a clue to fold in situations where they are faced with a big bet and very little chance to win the hand.

If you think you win the hand a sizable proportion of the time calling is fine. If its always a chop or you lose then you should fold. (assuming the %'s arent too skewed)

ocallagh

i think all of this can be worked out by maths (assuming he acts the same with Tx as he does with 99/78c)

Tx = 1/45
99 OR 7c8c = (2/45 * 1/44) + (2/45 * 1/44)

You will see that it is much more likely for him to have Tx. Roughly 12 times as likely.

If he has Tx 88% of the time, 99 or 78c 8.5% of the time and bluffs or misclicks the rest, it's marginal but you make money.

(85 * .88 = 75)
+ (-450 * .085 = -38.25)
+ (690 * .035 = 24.15)
_____________________
=$+60



edit: The button does not limp with T2o etc, so this becomes much more marginal than I thought
edit: forgot about our 70

Flushdraw

It looks like we're calling $380 for a split pot at best so we get about $110 back. I'm sure its -EV there somewhere along the line. I fold

phantom_lord

OutOfPosition wrote:

explain pls

I wouldn't ever expect him to win here, the other guy is shoving tx, quads and the nuts, it's 450 to get get back 85, I don't think it's really worth it. plus calling and losing would probably put me on mega tilt!


fwiw i love shoving in these type of situations, since most people are retarded and can't fold in these spots, even if the pot is ~15bbs or something and they've to call 100bbs, (zeebo therom i think), like when u have 5 on a 555xa board, just go all in and expect to be called by an a.

Hectorjelly

I dont think he does act the same with a ten though. With 99 and 78s on the river you can push because a ten will always call. With a ten though there is very little value to pushing. Even an idiot will realize a 9 will probably fold.
Its very common for even bad players to make bets in situations like this when they realise their opponent has a worse but unfoldable hand.

If I was him and I had 99 or 78c I would push all in because i know people are too stupid to fold a ten there. If I had a ten I wouldn't push because I think a 9 definitely folds to a push.

ocallagh

Hectorjelly wrote:

I dont think he does act the same with a ten though. With 99 and 78s on the river you can push because a ten will always call. With a ten though there is very little value to pushing. Even an idiot will realize a 9 will probably fold.
Its very common for even bad players to make bets in situations like this when they realise their opponent has a worse but unfoldable hand.

If I was him and I had 99 or 78c I would push all in because i know people are too stupid to fold a ten there. If I had a ten I wouldn't push because I think a 9 definitely folds to a push.

agreed, he prob calls or maybe value raises with Tx a large % of the time, and if you exclude T2-T6 from his range it probably is a fold

DemocAnarchis

After a bit of thought im still not sure. River is Tc Tx 9c 9x 6c, we have ATo. Hmm. What does he think our range is? I think 78c is well within his range, but does he call our turn bet when drawing to a fairly low flush? I dont think he'd be getting the right odds to call the turn with 78c. Does he limp with 99? Possibly, Im not sure he does, and if he's loose I'd expect some sort of action from his part on the turn. But how does he shove? A double paired board, he has to consider a house. He can easily put us on a ten. Could he be trying to rep the nut house and put us on a flush draw?

I guess my answer is I just dont know. Im sure my thoughts are influenced by the implication that your friend lost the hand. Im not comfortable calling his shove, and given that I cant tell where we stand, I probably fold. Donkaments, etc

RoundTower

I think this is a fold. If he has Tx 75% of the time and the nuts the rest it is a marginal fold.

Gholimoli

villain has been described as loos and not great.
does this mean he could call the flop bet with 66?
could he do this with a lone 9?

i think if the answer to the above is at all a maybe then i think it's a call.
simple cuz there is more chance of him having thoes hands than a 99 or 78c.

if i thought the min he would do this with is a T then obviously it's a fold.
i think against a loos player though i lean more towards calling.

Mr.Plough

if i was playing the hand i'd call, but realise afterwards it was a fold.

gosplan

Would loose villian limp with 99?

If he did and flopped house would he bet or check behind?

78c seems more likely to me.

(now that I've said this results will definatly show 99)

Hectorjelly

I dont think you will ever see someone turn up with a 9 here; to do that they would want to be totally braindead and we would of noticed that by now.

califano

Im going to go out on a limb here and say he limped after others with AA and now refuses to lose. The 9 on the turn really helped him he reckons so push time he reckons?.

HeeHawsCantona

In retrospect our bet on the river is not too clever unless it's designed to get us away from this sort of situation. Personally I can't give him 99 (egg on face if he did) but the way the hand played 78c is a strong possibility - only an absolute clown can push here with 66 9x etc so I'd have to make a decision on 78c or a split. The correct decision is a fold and I hope I'd be able to make it but I fear I'd call often here. Great Thread!

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

BigCityBanker

LuckyLloyd wrote:

In practice, I could not fold a 10 here. Man, I'm such a fish.

ditto to this.

I want to be in a serious poker zone to hit the fold button here..

buck65

THIS IS FREAKING ME OUT....
i fold one minute and call the next
mmmmmmmmmm call and squeeze

robinlacey

Hectorjelly wrote:

I dont think you will ever see someone turn up with a 9 here; to do that they would want to be totally braindead and we would of noticed that by now.

i had a very similar hand to this one recently,except that the board was 99688,and the guy pushed with TT.i nearly folded my 9,since he had been playing fairly solidly up to that point. i'm not sure whether a call or fold is correct,but i think you have to be aware that there is all sorts of random stuff in his range here,and that people act strangely on a paired board.

DeadParrot

LuckyLloyd wrote:

In practice, I could not fold a 10 here. Man, I'm such a fish.

I'm the same Lloyd, though after reading some of the other posts, I can see why it could be done.

RoundTower

Mr.Plough wrote:

if i was playing the hand i'd call, but realise afterwards it was a fold.

me too.

fuzzbox

HeeHawsCantona wrote:

In retrospect our bet on the river is not too clever unless it's designed to get us away from this sort of situation.

The river bet is a perfectly good value bet. We can get called here by all manner of rubbish. We cant expect him to bet for us, so we should definitely bet.

gosplan

lol, never fold trips but occasionally fold nut house

HeeHawsCantona

fuzzbox wrote:

The river bet is a perfectly good value bet. We can get called here by all manner of rubbish. We cant expect him to bet for us, so we should definitely bet.

At a certain level yes of course that maybe correct but I think this situation proves otherwise. We cannot be sure that we are ahead and in those circumstances do we valuebet? Here we have a situation where some of us feel that the correct play is not to call the reraise so therefore is a value bet correct? Yes we might get called by a 9, 67o etc but a good player might fold these to a bet of 70 also when having invested less than 50 in the pot. This might be the rare occasion when a check on the river with the 3rd nuts is correct.

ollyk1

HeeHawsCantona wrote:

At a certain level yes of course that maybe correct but I think this situation proves otherwise. We cannot be sure that we are ahead and in those circumstances do we valuebet? Here we have a situation where some of us feel that the correct play is not to call the reraise so therefore is a value bet correct? Yes we might get called by a 9, 67o etc but a good player might fold these to a bet of 70 also when having invested less than 50 in the pot. This might be the rare occasion when a check on the river with the 3rd nuts is correct.

If you play your poker based on results you could well be right sir!

Scouser in Dub

There's nothing wrong with betting for value only to fold when a raise tells you your behind

I still think I call here only to think it's a fold later

HeeHawsCantona

Scouser in Dub wrote:

There's nothing wrong with betting for value only to fold when a raise tells you your behind

I still think I call here only to think it's a fold later

I know what you're saying put read what you have said here and think about it!

Gholimoli

HeeHawsCantona wrote:

At a certain level yes of course that maybe correct but I think this situation proves otherwise. We cannot be sure that we are ahead and in those circumstances do we valuebet? Here we have a situation where some of us feel that the correct play is not to call the reraise so therefore is a value bet correct? Yes we might get called by a 9, 67o etc but a good player might fold these to a bet of 70 also when having invested less than 50 in the pot. This might be the rare occasion when a check on the river with the 3rd nuts is correct.

this is none sense ,a bet/fold is a perfectly good strategy in alot of situations including this one ,as fuzz said you bet cuz you can get called by alot of worse hands and you fold to a raise cuz you can only beat a bluff then.

Hyzepher

I suppose I would try and analyse this from the Villian's point of view. His pre flop limp could easily be made with Tx, 99, 7c8c, 78o or even any range of pocket pair.

The bet on the flop after our check is the first clue. I don't think 99 would bet here - he might even check behind with Tx hoping we catch a card. 7c8c & 78o would most likely bet here, as would a pocket pair.

The call on the turn is clue number 2. I think if he had the straight he would re-raise and only flat call with Tx - maybe fearing the straight.

Our river raise doesn't phase him and now he decides to go over the top. We have to put him on Tx. Most average players may see this as the nuts anyway.

I think 99 and 7c8c can be discounted due to his betting pattern - however people don't always follow predictable paths.

For me he has Tx.

As for whether a call or fold is best for us - I think given the limits (2/4) and the size of the bet I would put him on Tx - I think he would value bet 99 or 7c8c.

HeeHawsCantona

Gholimoli wrote:

this is none sense ,a bet/fold is a perfectly good strategy in alot of situations including this one ,as fuzz said you bet cuz you can get called by alot of worse hands and you fold to a raise cuz you can only beat a bluff then.

That's not "Value Betting" - and my argument is that this maybe an occasion where a value bet is not correct. If we both have 10X then I'd sooner be him obviously.

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

ianmc38

Its easy to say afterwards that theoretically its a fold, but I would never fold here against the described guy and I dont know too many people who would fold while actually playing the hand.

HeeHawsCantona

agreed it would take an awesome effort to fold this

bottom feeder

Daragh if im honest when I first read this I automatically was thinking insta call, due to him being very loose and not a great player. but after reading on through the thread and taking into consideration other peoples opinions, it seems like a fold.
Even so I don’t think I’d find a fold TBH - interesting though…!

Hectorjelly wrote:

No its not an insta-call, and I would appreciate it if you don't direct my threads to the bbv sticky, especially when you do so in a post that gives away your inexperience. I didn't play this hand, I didn't post it because I wanted sympathy. I posted it because I felt that there is actually an interesting and unusual decision on the river. Its common practice amongst players who have a clue to fold in situations where they are faced with a big bet and very little chance to win the hand.

If you think you win the hand a sizable proportion of the time calling is fine. If its always a chop or you lose then you should fold. (assuming the %'s arent too skewed)

LMAO

gosplan

Anyone an idea on the maths of calling 450 to win 85?

Given the likelyhood of him actually having a hand that beats us is this a close call?

5starpool

Again, I don't think I'd be able to fold here even though I wouldn't be thrilled about calling, especially not in the allotted time online. I have seen similiar situations to this in Omaha though where I have seen poeple call, but being sure it was a wrong call. In HE it is much more marginal though.

bops

i know its silly but i v often see people pushing here with a T...like vvv often

split 75%
99/78s 15%
crazy bluff 10%

i got those stats from the bops calctm...it never fails

...my hunch is the nulteys

busted flush

without much thought i call but hey im not that good

bops

...oh yeah and for the record i've seen it been called by the stupid house :rolleyes: ...jesus i play with some retards, that might explain why i think i'm good

cardshark202

I doubt you should fold here against a bad loose player. I saw a very similiar hand yesterday on a 553 board where a guy with 83s rivered a three and bet the river and called a shove and another hand two days ago where a guy with 44 on a KK4TT overbet pushed the river into 2 players after heavy action on previous streets. They both called with their kings lol.
Basically as robin said, there are too many weird hands that can show up here, so I would never fold unless the player was pretty good and I had a particular read.

Hitman Actual

gosplan wrote:

Anyone an idea on the maths of calling 450 to win 85?

We need to win 45% of the time to break even: 450/(450+85+450)
And we lose to two hands, tie with a load of Tx hands, and beat fcuk all, unless he's a mentalist.

I couldn't find a fold in the heat of battle.

CaptainNemo

The last hand I heard of like this was a massive 3-way pot with a board of AATTx. The guy with quads got called by 2 people with 1 ace each.

I think you have to fold this. Your best case scenario is a split.

EDIT: Like most people here have admitted, I would probably call very quickly and only realize later how wrong I was.

Scouser in Dub

Who folds here holding 10 9?

AmarilloFats

relatively quad nines is the same hand!

since alll that beats u is quad tens and straight flush.. so if no BBJ - who folds quad nines!?

jbravado

lol at people who say they ACTUALLY fold this.In reality NOBODY ever EVER folds this.

bottom feeder

jbravado wrote:

lol at people who say they ACTUALLY fold this.In reality NOBODY ever EVER folds this.

.

bottom feeder

jbravado wrote:

lol at people who say they ACTUALLY fold this.In reality NOBODY ever EVER folds this.

.