Friday night at Lukes

brianmc

Blinds 150-300

Hero - 19000
Villain - Table chip leader - covers by a few K - Villain seems to be a newish player - not great - doesn't seem inclined towards fancy play.

Folded to hero in CO -1. Raise to 800 with 7c8c.

Folded to Villain in SB. Flat calls. BB folds.

Flop: T88.

Villain Checks. Hero bets 1500. Villain raises to 4000. Hero calls.

Turn: T883r

Villain bets 7000.


Read on villain is that I am pretty certain that he believes he is ahead. In his range I'm expecting rag aces, rag kings and pocket pairs up to say, JJ. Slightly reduced possibility of AA, KK, QQ.

Now that he believes he's ahead - that to me means AA, KK, QQ, TT, perhaps JJ. AT, A8, K8, possibly KT.

He won't fold. It's stack time. Does anybody feel like doing the maths?

30something

Oops, tricky situation. He has bet 7k into a ~10k pot. You have 11k left and can fold with enough left to play.

Alternatively if you call and win you'll have 40k.

He's in the BB, could have a better 8, could have a worse 8, could have a good 10 (or pocket 10s).


This is precisley the position in a tourney we gotta gamble to win IMO and thus I'm leaning towards a shove and if he has a better 8 at least you went down fighting. If your call is good your going deep.

PS - has the top up passed?

bottom feeder

I don't think im getting away from this, I'd probably push to his raise on the flop - but that's me 'sicko' cant get away from hands.

When your describing his hand possibilities i noticed that you never mentioned 10's, is there any reason why he cant have said hand...!

5starpool

I like this situation mostly tbh against the palyer you have described. I call here after a dramatic dwell up, and call a push on the river, or push if checked to. Against a more experienced player though I play it more cautiously, depending if I know them or not, but in this situation I think you will see Tx a good bit, or possibly even a pair (hopefully not TT).

brianmc

The rebuy and top up are gone.

TT is mentioned.

I would have about 14K left if I fold to his bet

RoundTower

I would put him on most likely a T and go all in. If better 8s are possible then surely lots of Ts are in his range as well. Also if he has a better 8, we have outs.

bottom feeder

brianmc wrote:

The rebuy and top up are gone.

TT is mentioned.

I would have about 14K left if I fold to his bet

so it is sry...

ollyk1

Do these guys ever check raise and then lead with a T ?? Ever???? :rolleyes:

5starpool

ollyk1 wrote:

Do these guys ever check raise and then lead with a T ?? Ever???? :rolleyes:

Given Brians description, 'these guys' often do in my experience, yes.

RoundTower

I think so, top pair is a pretty good hand.

brianmc

Ok...

I agree with most of what has been said so far.

To get closer to the nub of my problem though... When this guy bet 7000 on the turn my read tightened up to - This guy really BELIEVES that he is ahead. He hasn't got doubts. I think that reduces the chances of a T pretty dramatically. I'm not saying it's not possible. If he has a T then it's probably AT or TT.

Do we still put the stack in?

LuckyLloyd

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BigCityBanker

this hand is fine, so long as you didnt fold.

cooker3

I think it's far more likely he has a ten then a 8.
He would be more inclined to c/c and "slowplay" his monster judging by his description

White Knight

I like an instant Hellmuthesque dramatic all in push to scare the bejaysus out of him

valor

just put it in, flop call is good

5starpool

He "knows you have AK".

zuutroy

I would think overpair or A-10, and would probably shove to his check-raise.

feefeen

your all muppets.....kermit....miss piggy....get a life

zuutroy

feefeen wrote:

your all muppets.....kermit....miss piggy....get a life

and YOUR reported.

mrflash

i'm not sure if this is the same brian, who i played with in a sng at the ept last year, but if it is, i distinctly remember the first two hands of the sng and this player showed a suited one gapper when shoving all in over the top of a raiser who did not call, and the very next hand shoved over my raise and i folded and again this player showed his hand which on the second occasion was qq. now the reason i bring this up is that if it is the same player, and you have showed a couple of bad hands after taking down pots, then i would be in shoving mode in this situation, but if your image is solid, i would play it more carefully and try and extract as much as is possible out of him. its impossible to put him on an exact hand from the information supplied, but it would certainly look like a10 to me. its a very likely hand for a newbie to play strongly.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ollyk1

mrflash wrote:

i'm not sure if this is the same brian, who i played with in a sng at the ept last year, but if it is, i distinctly remember the first two hands of the sng and this player showed a suited one gapper when shoving all in over the top of a raiser who did not call, and the very next hand shoved over my raise and i folded and again this player showed his hand which on the second occasion was qq. now the reason i bring this up is that if it is the same player, and you have showed a couple of bad hands after taking down pots, then i would be in shoving mode in this situation, but if your image is solid, i would play it more carefully and try and extract as much as is possible out of him. its impossible to put him on an exact hand from the information supplied, but it would certainly look like a10 to me. its a very likely hand for a newbie to play strongly.

It's not the same Brian. I agree Brian's image is important in this hand. I think you can assume his image is reasonably solid at this stage but he would have a range for raising!! lol

Hitman Actual

brianmc wrote:

Blinds 150-300

Hero - 19000
Villain - Table chip leader - covers by a few K - Villain seems to be a newish player - not great - doesn't seem inclined towards fancy play.

Folded to hero in CO -1. Raise to 800 with 7c8c.

Folded to Villain in SB. Flat calls. BB folds.

Flop: T88.

Villain Checks. Hero bets 1500. Villain raises to 4000. Hero calls.

Turn: T883r

Villain bets 7000.


Read on villain is that I am pretty certain that he believes he is ahead. In his range I'm expecting rag aces, rag kings and pocket pairs up to say, JJ. Slightly reduced possibility of AA, KK, QQ.

Now that he believes he's ahead - that to me means AA, KK, QQ, TT, perhaps JJ. AT, A8, K8, possibly KT.

He won't fold. It's stack time. Does anybody feel like doing the maths?

The maths is pretty clear. Your implied odds for pushing in your last 7200 (taking into account the 7K call) is something like 20%BE. And you're 80% against the range you're talking about (TT+,AT/8, KT/8). There's plenty of margin there if you want to start weighting the hands you think beat you.

Captain Tom

well played, now call.

cardshark202

Yes good play so far, I like pushing now though.

brianmc

Yeah, I'm not really sure what my exact question was. I was using this to mull it all over I think.

I RRAI on the turn. Villain called with K8.

What made the hand stick in my head so much - apart from knocking me out of the tournament - was the moment he bet the turn.

My gut feel - suddenly went - "oh sh1t". I stopped and thought it through for a while though and pushed based on the same analysis that pretty much everyone else in the thread made - but I would have been stunned if he'd turned over a ten.

I often wonder though (against this type of weak player) just how finely you could tune your instincts and whether I should have more faith in them.

5starpool

I knew you should fold. Sure didn't I say that above

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

mrflash

brianmc wrote:

What made the hand stick in my head so much - apart from knocking me out of the tournament - was the moment he bet the turn.
My gut feel - suddenly went - "oh sh1t". I stopped and thought it through for a while though and pushed based on the same analysis that pretty much everyone else in the thread made - but I would have been stunned if he'd turned over a ten.

This is very important. In my experience if i get that gut feeling, 98 times out of 100 i am beaten. i used to ignore it, but i have learned the hard way that when you get this feeling, its a good idea to fold.

brianmc

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I remember a post on 2+2 where NATH (a devastatingly good tournament donk) argued that much of current thought process and hand analysis - even from good players - conveniently shuns the question "but does he have it this one time" because it is far too difficult to think in those terms. But, for Nath in anycase, that is where we should be striving to get to. Knowing what is profitable or not in the long - term, but trying to dig that extra level deeper.

I don't really think that is plausible myself - and I believe you are beating yourself up a bit too much here tbh.

I guess that's what I'm talking about.

I think it is something that would be much harder for a player to achieve online than in live situations.

Live games are full of information that online games are missing - the sound of a voice - the body position of your opponent - they way they move their chips in. I don't see why experience can't teach you how to pick up on a lot of that information. I expect though that it is something almost subconscious that you need to learn to tap in to.

In live games myself, I know that there have been maybe 4 or 5 times over the last few years where I found myself calling off flop, turn and river bets for large percentages of stack with an underpair to the board and showing the best hand. This hand was very close to being the converse of this for me - I really did consider laying it down. (I'm not normally a sufferer of MUTBS)

When the big calls have happened they have happened out of the blue when I wasn't expecting them. Something about the situation just seemed to scream "you're ahead!". After the hand - that something doesn't seem to be easily identifiable.

At the moment (and in this hand) what I'm struggling with is that - I think I've tapped into that strong read and picked up on something - but the "boards style" logic side of my brain shouts too loudly and I discount the read too much.

I think I need to learn to trust it more.

Captain Tom

Captain Tom wrote:

well played, now call.

sorry meant shove.

a147pro

I've been thinking about this a lot recently, particularly since I couldn't let go with a str8 on a paired river to a repush. Everything was telling me house but I couldn't let go and consider myself a poorer player for it. I think in any tournie you go deep in you will be on one side of one or more big hands like this. If you can learn to get away from them you will win more. But its so hard. Cos you see so many crap players, so you call, or players you don't know so you figure they're crap too and call. Or youre online so have less gut instinct. And you sit there folding all night to get in to these positions so you can't let them go. Or you think of the logic expounded here that is he's rarely ahead so call him, this is poker, over time you'll be on the right side of these hands if you call all the time. But I still think a good player can get away from them and can hugely increase his profit from tournaments over time if he does.

I'm just struggling to find the balance cos I know I've folded the best hand in the past. I reckon it is in going with your instinct rather than calling when you simply want to believe you're ahead. And if that means folding the winning hand occasionally so be it.