Boards.ie Lotto Syndicate Via Paypal ?

Raiser

The odds on winning that €12,000,000+ on Wed. night are 1 in 8,145,060 - ie. almost no fcuking chance.

If you are a member of a syndicate you can shorten those odds considerably - the only drawback being that you have to share your winnings with some other folks, which is fine by me seeing as I never refuse tax-free wads of ca$h.

- The way I see it, I'd prefer to have some chance of winning say €300,000 than next to no chance of winning €12,000,000. Even if you pool together with the dept. at work, school/college folks, friends or whatever you won't bring those crap odds down enough......

Therefore I propose a large syndicate where the Jackpot could conceivably be shared amongst the participants. The syndicate numbers are capped only at the point where the payout becomes too small to make participation worthwhile. Perhaps going forward the Euromillions would be the best choice as its jackpots are commonly massive.


So surely theres a way of organising this/making it workable [?] - cash via paypal, buyers nominated/voted on and a witness or two nominated to oversee things. Finally all tickets kept at a secure location, solictor's office or wherever until they can be checked.

Finally, this thread isn't about anything other than making this plan workable, all critisism is welcome as long as its constructive and you're not a moron.


Disclaimer/Declaration Of Honest Intent & Tosser Clause

I have no ulterior motive or angle on this & am happy to just participate.

Re. the avalanche of criticism, guffawing and wankerism this thread will attract - PFO, Kthanxbye

*Edit for speling mistkes

Mr E

If it can be properly organised (I think Paypal is easiest), then I'm all for it! Are you talking 1 box each, or 4, or even 8?

biko

Not into gambling myself but good luck!

DonalN

it's a good idea - but you may want to wait till next week, cos I'm going to win it on Wed. ..seriously...I am..

tba

even better idea!!!!

Lets pool our our money into a long term savings scheme with a guaranteed rate of return!

Tar.Aldarion

You get huge interest in accounts with large amounts of money in them, You know what to do.

PeakOutput

while i feel that this will end in tears after a long drawn out court case i would participate.

i reckon 6-10 euro each should be the amount and cap it so that IF the syndicate wins then every member gets 100K so i think for wednsday that would be 120 people.

potentially 1,200 euro worth of tickets at 3 euro a line(i think) is400 tickets. chances of winning are still horribly small

but like i said im in if its done

cooperguy

I would be up for it. Paypal commisions would have to be taken into account though

shrapnel222

good idea. the biggest diffficulty is there is no site in ireland where you can buy tickets online, so either you have to trust the buyer 100% because there is no way he's scanning 100 tickets so that everyone can see them and check them or you have to meet the buyer in order to get photocopies. i'd be game though

PeakOutput

scanning in 100 tickets prob wouldnt take too long(in bulk obviously not one at a time) but your right i wouldnt do it.

maybe one high res photo???? dont know how practical that is

User45701

I like the idea allot, paypall would be the way to go even tho i hate it , ive been avoding getting paypall for a long time.

Best way to do this is to orginise it around a big euro millions about 2 weeks After the next boards beers that way it can be discussed in detail.

MooseJam

+ 1 I also want to win some of this money

Cool_CM

shrapnel222 wrote:

because there is no way he's scanning 100 tickets so that everyone can see them

Firstly they'd have to fill in all those lotto tickets before getting anywhere near the scanning stage!

Owen

Count me in.

PeakOutput

Cool_CM wrote:

Firstly they'd have to fill in all those lotto tickets before getting anywhere near the scanning stage!

quick piks solve that problem

wba88

Im well up for it, and if there is no set amount i.e. as many lines as people want to buy then i would buy a good few.

So if there was 20ppl and 100lines, of which i bought 20lines, i would be entitled to 20% of the winnings. This would suit more ppl but would be harder to manage.

Also very hard to do before wednesday

looksee

What do you do about the small wins that divide up at less than say a couple of euros each, you would have to decide not to share out less than €10 pp (if you have 50 people in thats a win of €500, most wins would be less than that). Can you distribute it by paypal?

Its already been established that if someone is in one week and misses the next they can claim they are in the syndicate, unreasonable as it seems. And dont call it Boards.ie syndicate, you might find everyone is in!!

PeakOutput

looksee wrote:

What do you do about the small wins that divide up at less than say a couple of euros each

I would advise that anything that equalled less than 50 euro each be put back in for more tickets

looksee

So are you in on the week when tickets are bought with money that you put in 2 weeks ago that won another small amount which was reinvested, but you omitted to pay up this week?

PeakOutput

looksee wrote:

So are you in on the week when tickets are bought with money that you put in 2 weeks ago that won another small amount which was reinvested, but you omitted to pay up this week?

thats a good point


i would say no you are not but i can see that being a problem

Redders825

Count me in! We Would need to get the ball rolling if we want to get it set-up for Weds night! Simply 400 people at 10euro each! All Quickpicks, and the person can scan/email numbers to each persons email addresses.

We need :

1. Person to Maintain the PayPal Account - needs to be well known and trustworthy.

2. Person to Buy the Tickets - Friend of Above maybe

3. Person to generate E-Mail List of Participants!

What ye think?

Flukey

The odds on winning that €12,000,000+ on Wed. night are 1 in 8,145,060

Wrong. You have to buy a minimum of 2 lines, so it is half that, unless you were stupid enough to have the same numbers on both lines.

eirebhoy

200 people.
€9 and 6 lines each Wednesday and Saturday.
€18 and 12 lines each per week.
Total of 2,400 lines every week.
Odds on winning the Lotto in any given week: 3,394/1

Total spent per person per year: €936
Chances of winning the Lotto in any given year: 65/1

I think?

PeakOutput

so its 9-1 to break even and 65-1 to make a profit.........hmmmmmmm

does that not assume that each prior draw affects the next?

i dont honestly know myself but it would seem too easy if that was all you needed to do.

I think you would need to pick the same numbers every week for it to be even close to working like that and because you choose different numbers each week and because the draws are independant of one another each week you have the same chance as before ie 1-4million or something............

im open to correction on all of the above as im not a gambler besides a bit of poker........

Irish Wolf

eirebhoy wrote:

200 people.
€9 and 6 lines each Wednesday and Saturday.
€18 and 12 lines each per week.
Total of 2,400 lines every week.
Odds on winning the Lotto in any given week: 3,394/1

Total spent per person per year: €936
Chances of winning the Lotto in any given year: 65/1

I think?

I finally got my head around the 2/8145060.. but I can't figure this.. it's 1 in 8145060 per draw.. so based on the above it's 1200/8145060 per draw.. and not (52*2*1200)/8145060 per year..

I always hated probability..

wba88

eirebhoy, i like those 65/1 odds

My suggestion;

1. Pick a number of ppl (100, 200, 400 etc)

2. Everyone pays the €18 per week suggested by eirebhoy but to save the hassle it is paid every 4weeks (€72).

3. Seen as everyone is paying the same amount then everyone has the same winnings.

4. After the four weeks if the total prize fund is split up and equates to over the previously set amount (e.g. €50 per person) then it is sent to everyone or put towards their next payment, it is at their discretion.

5. So basically have accounts for everyone or alternatively if the amount of prize fund for each person is over the set amount then send it to everyone regardless of their wishes as this is less hassle for the organisers.


I think it would work better with 75, 100, 150ppl rather than 200+

I could have missed something out as I am very tired so let me know if I did and remember it is just a suggestion.

cooperguy

Is there really a need for each member to buy more than 2 lines in any 1 draw. With so many syndicate members each person should just buy the minimum 2 lines. That would still be 300+ lines for each draw and would open up the syndicate to smaller players. Because although this thread has gotten plenty of positive responses its a long way away from the 150-200 being looked for.

Also any of the smaller prizes should either be distributed between the syndicate members or if the prizes are too small then raffled off. Putting the money back into tickets is a bad idea.

magpie

Count me in

Raiser

So we lost a load of time there due to a dodgy RAID controller it seems - I'm not too bothered as I'd like this to be a long term project until we get the big win as opposed to being something that fades away after the hype of tomorrow nights record jackpot has blown over..............

Theres been quite a few good suggestions/point raised here [please give yourself some credit] and I've listed a few points below very quickly to try and progress things a little further. I'm delighted by the positive response and I really hope this gets off the ground as I think we really could work our way towards a nice win and perhaps an early retirement with a small bit of effort and committment.

- Finally re. tomorrow nights draw, I'm happy to fire €10-€20 at it via this approach on a wing and a prayer even if things are still a bit rough - Isn't it just the price of a ham sandwich and a cup of tea in todays Ireland



How many lines/how much ca$h per syndicate member ?
Personally I think this is quite important, I think we need to hit a sweet spot - a monthly figure that people are happy to transfer in order to keep participation levels up until we get our big win. If this figure is too high I think we'll see declining numbers etc.

What to gamble on and the frequency ?
I'm open here - I reckon the Irish Lotto is prob. the obvious staple - the Euromillions second & theres no reason why we couldn't go international via our subscribers abroad and IBAN no.s if the pickings looked sweet in, for example, the Aussie Lotto

How many people are to be allowed in before membership is closed ?
I reckon the upper limit needs to be capped in response to the diminishing returns angle - but also from the logistics perspective, this needs to be workable not misery for those who're trying to make it work on a regular basis.

Cash transfers, Paypal and other considerations, eg. commission etc. ?
Dunno - Paypal is the current favourite - anything other nominations shall be considered on their merits.

Verification - How can the Syndicate Members view the tickets, both for reassurance and practicality reasons ?
A high res. photo was suggested - I assume that an uber-mega 15MB high res. snap taken properly could provide a photographic record of tickets for reference and a distributable record/proof of purchase for members.

Numbers to be chosen in the draw itself ?
I assume quick-picks only - end of story, both for the [ridiculous] logistics involved and because statistically they're out in front. Only mentioned in case I'm missing something here.

Proportional participation and payouts ?
I personally think its not workable to allow people to pay more in each draw/join more than once per person [what if this happens without our knowledge via dual accounts etc. ?] ? Again only throwing this out there just in case.


Small wins - What to do, pay out pittance or bank ?
I personally would be very much against sending ~€50-€75 etc. to each member - prefering it to be ploughed straight back in for the jackpot win - but I know that theres a certain value in returning dividends to the masses for the associated positive vibe/morale boosting purposes etc. We perhaps have a vote on what to do with non-jackpot wins [should be a regular occurence] via a poll etc.

Definition of roles & responsibility
How do we we decide on our representatives and whos going to to do what, when & where ?

Legal issues how to protect ourselves, the Syndicate itself and ensure that malicious or dishonest intent can be mitigated against.
Theres any number of ways that this could end in tears, we need to protect ourselves and may need to get a legal document drafted, sent out and signed etc. Any input is welcome from any informed source.

eirebhoy

Odds of matching the following:

Match 6: 8,145,060/1
Match 5 + Bonus: 1,357,510/1
Match 5: 35,724/1
Match 4 + Bonus: 14,290/1
Match 4: 772/1
Match 3 + Bonus: 579/1
Match 3: 48/1

If we staked a total of €1,800 in each draw (200 * €9).

Thats a total of...
€187,200 spent per year
and
124,800 lines per year

How many times a year we'll get the following on average (excluding Jackpot and 5+bonus):

Match 5: 3.5 times per year (or 7 times every 2 years)
Match 4 + Bonus: 8
Match 4: 161
Match 3 + Bonus: 215
Match 3: 2,600

Estimated winnings on each per year (excluding Jackpot and 5+bonus):

Match 5: 3.5 * €1,500 = €5250
Match 4 + Bonus: 8 * €150 = €1200
Match 4: 161 * €50 = €8,050
Match 3 + Bonus: 215 * €25 = €5,375
Match 3: 2,600 * €5 = €13,000

Total winnings on the 'smaller' amounts:
€32,875

Which is 17.5% of the total stake.

If we all spent €936 a year we'd get back on average €164 each. I think it'd be best to give everyone their winnings at the end of the year but it's a lot harder to do.

Anyway, that's going by the way I explained in my previous post which required 200 committed people. We won't get anywhere near that amount. It just makes it a lot easier to work the calculations that way.

/My calculations are probably wrong btw.

cooperguy

Raiser you are talking about it as if its a gauranteed win its still far more likely that your going to get raped by a rabid turtle. Which is why returning winnings is a much better idea. Throwing an extra €50 per person into a draw will not reduce the odds by a huge amount its much better to get some return.

looksee

From experience of a largish syndicate which won mostly minimum number prizes your figures are quite close to the results we got, a bit conservative if anything.

Would suggest you have a series of separate syndicates, money up front, for a fixed time (like 1 month) with no carry-over of people or money from one to another then you won't have people who were in in July then dropped out, claiming to be part of the syndicate when you win in September.

Terry

looksee wrote:

From experience of a largish syndicate which won mostly minimum number prizes your figures are quite close to the results we got, a bit conservative if anything.

Would suggest you have a series of separate syndicates, money up front, for a fixed time (like 1 month) with no carry-over of people or money from one to another then you won't have people who were in in July then dropped out, claiming to be part of the syndicate when you win in September.

That's actually a very good idea.
Give people a certain amount of time to sign up and if they don't meet the deadline, then it should be made clear that they have no claim on anything won that month.

Shortly after the lotto first began, I was part of a 50 something person syndicate. for the 6 months I was in it, we never won anything.

User45701

my lotto luck is all over the place i wont win anything for a year and then in the space of one month (this time last year actually) i won 13 times in one month (2 euro millions, 11 national lotto wins) in 4 weeks.

ok so lets hope noone wins the lotto today then let it roll over so we can get this orginised and win it as a syndicate

Lump

So who looks after the tickets?

Mr E

I'd go with looksee's plan (standalone, one month syndicates). If you're in, you're in. If you're not, you're not! No debate, no discussion, no problems.

faceman

ive arranged some large syndicates before. Best of luck to the organiser here, its a nightmare. Just make sureyou get a document drafted outlinin the rules and make sure everyone signs it. Emails or posts on boards confirming agreement wont do!

BaZmO*

Flukey wrote:

Wrong. You have to buy a minimum of 2 lines, so it is half that, unless you were stupid enough to have the same numbers on both lines.

Nope. It's not half of 8.5m if you do 2 lines. The odds remain essentially the same.

I can never understand when people do more than the minimum amount of lines when playing the Lotto. Doing more lines (the average 4 or 5 extra) only increases your odds of winning by a minuscule amount. The way I see it, if it's time for you to win you will win.

Raiser

cooperguy wrote:

Raiser you are talking about it as if its a gauranteed win its still far more likely that your going to get raped by a rabid turtle. Which is why returning winnings is a much better idea. Throwing an extra €50 per person into a draw will not reduce the odds by a huge amount its much better to get some return.

I'm happy to proceed in whatever direction proves to be the most popular & you make a good point - if folks are handing over cash and getting none back in return while we wait patiently to win big, then human nature will probably cause people to lose enthusiasm over time - We need to have some nice regular payoffs to keep people happy and committed while we wait for our Jackpot day to arrive.

looksee wrote:

From experience of a largish syndicate which won mostly minimum number prizes your figures are quite close to the results we got, a bit conservative if anything.

Would suggest you have a series of separate syndicates, money up front, for a fixed time (like 1 month) with no carry-over of people or money from one to another then you won't have people who were in in July then dropped out, claiming to be part of the syndicate when you win in September.

Yeah - that seems like being the way forward......elegance in simplicity and eliminates a lot of the problems from the start - thanks for the suggestion.


- Also could anyone thats interested in joing please copy & paste the below into your own sig. in User CP [You'll need to change the x to a U] - we need a bit of advertising to build our numbers a small bit

[xRL="http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055124848"][/URL]

* Edit to include updated cool Sig. Graphic - Courtesy of Duggy747 over at Digital Art and Design - Thanks again !!!

Terry

The good folk here will throw out a few logos for you.

i71jskz5xu42pb

BaZmO* wrote:

I can never understand when people do more than the minimum amount of lines when playing the Lotto. Doing more lines (the average 4 or 5 extra) only increases your odds of winning by a minuscule amount.

If you do twice as many lines you have increased your odds of winning by 100%, no? Since when was a 100% increase considered "a minuscule amount."

Granted the odds are still way out there but it's still a 100% increase in your chances. Unless I misreading you?

Terry

Two seperate lines both have the same chance of winning.
I don't know how to do the maths on it, but you would only increas your chances of a jackpot win by very little. It would go from 8,555,444 in one to 8,555,443 in one or something to that effect.

On the other hand, you do increase your odds of a small win by a fair bit.

i71jskz5xu42pb

I don't know if you are agreeing with me or not

Terry wrote:

Two seperate lines both have the same chance of winning.

Agreed

Terry wrote:

I don't know how to do the maths on it

Here's how I'd do it

Let's say there are 8,555,444 permutations (I have not worked out the exact number)
With one line you have 1 in 8,555,444 chance of winning
With two lines you have 2 in 8,555,444 chance of winning
So you've doubled you (admittedly small) odds

cooperguy

Terry wrote:

That's actually a very good idea.
Give people a certain amount of time to sign up and if they don't meet the deadline, then it should be made clear that they have no claim on anything won that month.

Shortly after the lotto first began, I was part of a 50 something person syndicate. for the 6 months I was in it, we never won anything.

Seconded

Terry

PaschalNee wrote:

I don't know if you are agreeing with me or not


Agreed


Here's how I'd do it

Let's say there are 8,555,444 permutations (I have not worked out the exact number)
With one line you have 1 in 8,555,444 chance of winning
With two lines you have 2 in 8,555,444 chance of winning
So you've doubled you (admittedly small) odds

You don't post here much.
I don't know if you read much, but I'll just tell you now that I don't have a clue what I'm talking about. Ever.

Your point about the odds does make sense though.

BaZmO*

PaschalNee wrote:

If you do twice as many lines you have increased your odds of winning by 100%, no? Since when was a 100% increase considered "a minuscule amount."

Granted the odds are still way out there but it's still a 100% increase in your chances. Unless I misreading you?

You don't increase you chances to win by 100%. All you do is have 2 chances to win at 8.5million to 1.

i71jskz5xu42pb

BaZmO* wrote:

You don't increase you chances to win by 100%. All you do is have 2 chances to win at 8.5million to 1.

And 2 chances are how many times bigger than 1 chance? Anyone, anyone - yes 100% bigger.
By your logic if you bought all the tickets your odds would not increase. You would just have 8.5million chances to win at 8.5million to 1 even though you'd be guaranteed to win.

If I'm wrong (it's been known to happen) here I'd love to see some mathematical explanation why.

(Obviously we're not taking about odds on a outright win as you need to factor in the number of other participants for that)

BaZmO*

The exact odds for winning the Lotto with 1 line is 8,145,060/1

How you work it out is as follows:

Starting from the highest number 45 work back six numbers multiplying by each other.....

45 x 44 x 43 x 42 x 41 x 40 = 5,864,443,200

Then you need to do the same for the amount of numbers you can pick, which is six....

1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 = 720

You then divide the 720 into 5,864,443,200 which gives you 8,145,060

So I'm guessing that if you do two lines the odds of winning (matching 6 numbers) becomes 8,145,059/1?

Tar.Aldarion

It may have increased your chances by '100%' but the change is so miniscule it is not worth it.

So I'm guessing that if you do two lines the odds of winning (matching 6 numbers) becomes 8,145,059/1?

No, that's not how it works.

PeakOutput

BaZmO* wrote:

So I'm guessing that if you do two lines the odds of winning (matching 6 numbers) becomes 8,145,059/1?

as far as i know you are right up to this point.

one line = 1-8,000,000

two lines = 2-8,000,00 = 1-4,000,000

you do not change the 8mill figure when you add another line because the 8 mill figure is the possible number of permutations of 6 numbers....that number does not change no matter how many lines you pick as there are always the same number of possible outcomes for the draw. what does change is how many of those outcomes you have chosen. increasing the numbers of lines you do is the only time you double your chances of winning though. if you have 3 lines the odds are 3-8,000,000 = 1-2,666,666(roughly)

BaZmO*

PeakOutput wrote:

as far as i know you are right up to this point.

one line = 1-8,000,000

two lines = 2-8,000,00 = 1-4,000,000

Yeah you're right. We just had a discussion here in work as to how the odds are worked out when you increase the amount of lines that you do.