Saturday

iloveireland

Chester 2:25

I am very confident that Somnus will win and will have a big bet on it. 4/1 at the moment but it will go off lower.

if the ground stays soft i think it is a two horse race between Opera cape and Somnus but im prety sure Somnus will win. Somnus finished ahead of Silver Touch two races ago and Silver Touch went on to win a far more competitive class one race yesterday at the same distance.7 furlong is an ideal trip and soft ground should suit.

4/1 is a great bet for a very good horse in a poor race for his standards.

if soft ground
small bet reverse forecast
1st somnus
2nd Opera Cape
+
big bet Somnus win 4/1


if firm ground
small bet reverse forecast
1st Somnus
2nd Misu Bond
+
big bet Somnus win at 4/1

Bluetonic

Would the lack of a recent run not be a concern?

Not the best of draws for Chester either, will have a bit to do I'd imagine.

BobbyD10

5.7 (just over 9/2) on betfair prob drift to 6.0 within the hr..

mayosteve99

So who ye betting on ?? Somous or???

iloveireland

Bluetonic wrote:

Would the lack of a recent run not be a concern?

Not the best of draws for Chester either, will have a bit to do I'd imagine.

i wouldnt worry too much about the lack of runs but i am aware a low draw and a good start is very important at chester. Somnus rarely misses the break and i just think he will be too good for these. The ground is soft so I can only see Opera Cape causing any problems. 9/2 is a great price for Somnus.

i think a reverse forecast between the two is a very good back up bet and it will pay about 15/1 (more) as Misu Bond is fav.

Bluetonic

So whats your conclusions?

iloveireland

Bluetonic wrote:

So whats your conclusions?

wow that didnt go to plan. I have no excuses for that complete mess,but at least someone is posting.
The flat season has been very difficult this year but the winners will come soon. Towards the end of the summer, more horses will have ran more races and it will be easier to pick winners.

TedKelly

iloveireland wrote:

wow that didnt go to plan. I have no excuses for that complete mess,but at least someone is posting.
The flat season has been very difficult this year but the winners will come soon. Towards the end of the summer, more horses have run more races and it is easier to pick a winner.

Fair play to ya, unlucky today but keep them coming!

Mountjoy Mugger

iloveireland wrote:

more horses will have ran more races and it will be easier to pick winners.

I'll have to remember that!