Paddypower C&C bet. No brainer?

BendiBus

At the current price they might be of interest to a larger more diversified drinks company that would like to add an established cider brand to their stable.

daveirl

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flogen

While daveirl has some fair points to make I still think they're worth a punt at the current price - a good summer next year will see their value rise significantly, even if it isn't back to the good auld days (IMO).

The fact that they're a potential takeover target helps too - I don't see the shares dropping any more than they did, certainly not for any length of time.

While they may have been overvalued, I think the movement after their profit readjustment was an over-reaction too.

BlackIguana

Well I'm very happy to have turned my £100 into £200 with pp..... (Fingers crossed, and barring a takeover!)

I actually don't know much about the fundamentals of the company but it's certaintly had an interesting few weeks. I don't think that the current price (EUR6.50) is necessarily an overshoot...

For the following reasons...

1) They have opened up the market for cider in the UK. Most definitely. But 'Bulmers UK' (not owned by C&C) are selling very well. There's a lot of nationalism in the UK and a lot of young brits would rather drink 'old english cider' than 'the irish stuff'. It doesn't taste very different and Bulmers probably have distribution advantages...

2) Mangagement have not covered themselves in glory over the past few weeks. The share buy-back programme (now cancelled but not before they spent 120m on shares when the price was between 8 - 12) has been disasterous. Awful timing considering they should have known that some sales difficulties were coming downstream....

3) When it was floated (only 2/3 years ago) the price was around 2.50 euros I think. So it has still come a long way...

Most likely outcome is a takeover. Hopefully not before October though.

Cheers.

Gary ITR

BlackIguana wrote:

When it was floated (only 2/3 years ago) the price was around 2.50 euros I think. So it has still come a long way...

€2.27, I got 654 of them for nothing so I'm still up once they stay above 1cent

Sonnenblumen

One of C & C's main UK competitors Scot & New ie Bulmers have reported record cider sales this summer!! Makes one wonder if there's more than weather affecting C&C's Magner sales in UK etc?

Sonnenblumen

daveirl wrote:

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Bull****, CRH have been dragged through courts in several countries for breaching rules + regs, corporate governance etc. They are like all building companies susceptible to market changes, cyclical or otherwise.

They are a big player and acutely aware of the political spheres.

Terrontress

Sonnenblumen wrote:

One of C & C's main UK competitors Scot & New ie Bulmers have reported record cider sales this summer!! Makes one wonder if there's more than weather affecting C&C's Magner sales in UK etc?

Of course! They created a market for a product and then let everyone else come in and take advantage of that.

5 years ago the only cider being drunk in English pubs was on draught. Now there is bottled cider everywhere. Magners, Bulmers, Strongbow Cirrus, Kopparberg, St. Helier.

I think C&C tried to get too big, too quickly. They thought that as long as they were encouraging people to drink bottled cider in the good weather that they woudl triumph.

daveirl

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Moggaman

daveirl wrote: »

Of course they are susceptible to market changes my point was that by virtue of operating in far more countries they were more robust than C&C.

Any updates on yer forecasts there lad?