Whats the story with the dollar at the moment

ianmc38

Someone mentioned ages ago that it had been devaluing at an alrming rate. I recently put 2k on party and cashed out for a little more. However my small win turned into a loss of about 80 euro after the conversion back was done.

I dont follow the currency markets at all so ive just been leaving all my money in $ in my online accounts (GJP mainly). Is the euro a much safer option for my money? I can transfer my roll in and out of the Blue Square sportsbook every day if needs be.

Any input from people with financial know how would be much appreciated.

Macspower

I'm in the same boat...... appreciate input as well....

El Stuntman

ianmc38 wrote:

Someone mentioned ages ago that it had been devaluing at an alrming rate. I recently put 2k on party and cashed out for a little more. However my small win turned into a loss of about 80 euro after the conversion back was done.

I dont follow the currency markets at all so ive just been leaving all my money in $ in my online accounts (GJP mainly). Is the euro a much safer option for my money? I can transfer my roll in and out of the Blue Square sportsbook every day if needs be.

Any input from people with financial know how would be much appreciated.

the US dollar has been very weak and likely to remain so with most macro factors suggesting further declines, holding large sums of $ online is -EV....

no need to transfer in and out every day as daily fluctuations tend to be small but if you have say, an 80 buy-in roll and you 4-table, I'd recommend keeping maybe only 15-20 buy-ins online and keep the rest in € in your local bank accounts

I was playing a small bit on racingpost poker (part of the iPoker network, think it's a subskin of VC) recently and noticed that my BR was denominated in € there and they just translated your $ play at the prevailing exchange rate. could also be an option?

on the plus side, future trips to Vegas will be heavily subsidised!!

death1234567

Macspower wrote:

I'm in the same boat...... appreciate input as well....

Must be a big boat, I'm there too. Was just about to cash out from full tilt but I am not sure now...hopefully dollar will improve.

Macspower

El Stuntman wrote:

the US dollar has been very weak and likely to remain so with most macro factors suggesting further declines, holding large sums of $ online is -EV....

no need to transfer in and out every day as daily fluctuations tend to be small but if you have say, an 80 buy-in roll and you 4-table, I'd recommend keeping maybe only 15-20 buy-ins online and keep the rest in € in your local bank accounts

I was playing a small bit on racingpost poker (part of the iPoker network, think it's a subskin of VC) recently and noticed that my BR was denominated in € there and they just translated your $ play at the prevailing exchange rate. could also be an option?

on the plus side, future trips to Vegas will be heavily subsidised!!

this makes sense but what for those of us with our rolls already in dollars.... are we just as well to leave it in dollars and hope things improve? And only cash out the necessary....?

Thanks,

Mac

FastMachine

ianmc38 wrote:

Someone mentioned ages ago that it had been devaluing at an alrming rate. I recently put 2k on party and cashed out for a little more. However my small win turned into a loss of about 80 euro after the conversion back was done.

I dont follow the currency markets at all so ive just been leaving all my money in $ in my online accounts (GJP mainly). Is the euro a much safer option for my money? I can transfer my roll in and out of the Blue Square sportsbook every day if needs be.

Any input from people with financial know how would be much appreciated.

Shure i told you that ages ago you spastic. The best financial advice I can give you would be to give it up altogether.

El Stuntman

Macspower wrote:

this makes sense but what for those of us with our rolls already in dollars.... are we just as well to leave it in dollars and hope things improve? And only cash out the necessary....?

Thanks,

Mac

meh, it depends how large your exposure is - if you have 10k+ in USD, I'd be asking myself if I wanted to leave myself open to the possibility of another 10-15% being wiped off this in € terms

long term, the $ is only going one way. short term fluctuations are something else....

personally I wouldn't want to leave any more than 10k denominated in $

RedJoker

El Stuntman wrote:

the US dollar has been very weak and likely to remain so with most macro factors suggesting further declines, holding large sums of $ online is -EV....

no need to transfer in and out every day as daily fluctuations tend to be small but if you have say, an 80 buy-in roll and you 4-table, I'd recommend keeping maybe only 15-20 buy-ins online and keep the rest in € in your local bank accounts

I was playing a small bit on racingpost poker (part of the iPoker network, think it's a subskin of VC) recently and noticed that my BR was denominated in € there and they just translated your $ play at the prevailing exchange rate. could also be an option?

on the plus side, future trips to Vegas will be heavily subsidised!!

I'd disagree with 1 think here, you should be putting it in high yield online savings accounts, HSBC, ING, etc. Brick and Mortar banks screw you.

If you play poker for a living I'd suggest switching part of your roll to euros but if you have a separate job and are getting paid in euros than having a little exposure to the dollar probably isn't a bad thing. It provides you with diversification and protects you if the euro starts to weaken. Most of your net worth is in euros; homes, cars, businesses, etc.

I don't follow currency markets so I can't comment on why the dollar is declining and I don't think anybody can accurately tell you which way it will go in the future.

El Stuntman

RedJoker wrote:

I'd disagree with 1 think here, you should be putting it in high yield online savings accounts, HSBC, ING, etc. Brick and Mortar banks screw you.

sorry you're right. When I said local bank accounts, I meant local currency i.e. €...B&M or internet, doesn't matter - go where you can get best return obv.

RedJoker wrote:

I don't follow currency markets so I can't comment on why the dollar is declining and I don't think anybody can accurately tell you which way it will go in the future.

err, they can make an educated guess...massive trade gap, current account deficit, US property market bubble, consumer debt overhang etc etc all point to further declines

$10k straight-up bet on $/€ one year from now?

Jesus Wept

FastMachine wrote:

Shure i told you that ages ago you spastic. The best financial advice I can give you would be to give it up altogether.

QFT. He has your number Ian!

RedJoker

A thread this week on the dollar from askaboutmoney.com:

The $ - how low will it go?

The US is running twin deficits with China and Japan. This appears to be the main reason for the continued falling. This may need to be reversed before the $ rises. As the US economy accelerates the $ should improve.

Also worth noting that the euro isn't a rock solid currency either.

Ollieboy

I had this problem a couple of months ago and I discuss it with Shortstack. You can set up your GJP to be in Euro's, this would require you to set up a new account etc.

As for Stars, they seem to hold there money in $, so I cant see a way around this.

But I would rather keep my money in € for the moment.

RedJoker

El Stuntman wrote:

err, they can make an educated guess...massive trade gap, current account deficit, US property market bubble, consumer debt overhang etc etc all point to further declines

Yes; of course they can make educated guesses but they are no more than guesses. There are plenty of people going bullish as well as people going bearish. Lots of people mentioning various figures saying this will be the bottom etc. You'll see the same thing in financial markets, perma bears have been predicting a crash each year for over a decade, they were right in 00 but not 95, 96, 97, 98, etc, etc. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

luckylucky

ianmc38 wrote:

Someone mentioned ages ago that it had been devaluing at an alrming rate. I recently put 2k on party and cashed out for a little more. However my small win turned into a loss of about 80 euro after the conversion back was done.

I dont follow the currency markets at all so ive just been leaving all my money in $ in my online accounts (GJP mainly). Is the euro a much safer option for my money? I can transfer my roll in and out of the Blue Square sportsbook every day if needs be.

Any input from people with financial know how would be much appreciated.

Firstly you have to be very weary of party poker's exchange rate! they can screw you over here big time(they don't do it all the time but sometimes they definitely give you less than the going rate), I made a post about this some time ago but it didn't seem to be heeded by anybody here.

In regards to other accounts, some accounts, notably bookmakers you can move your funds between dollar for poker and euros (sterling in my case) for the sportsbook with no exchange charges, for these kinda accounts it's a good idea I think at the minute to move your poker funds to your sportsbook account once you finish playing poker for the day.

BMcG05

other issues to be aware of are plainly political. For instance, which Democratic candidate gets chosen will have a strong effect on the $ as it may change US foreign policy, thereby perhaps stabilising the Middle East and allwing the price of oil to become secure.

The capital/current accounts, FED interest rates, growth of China and India all effect the financial markets, but personally I believe it will be the political race and spillover effect on oil, which will determine the immediate strength of the dollar

ianmc38

Thanks for the feedback. Yeah fast machine i remember your post. I had been transferring my roll daily from my poker account but stopped about 4 weeks ago. Gonna start doing it again now