River Overbet!

Macspower

A good while ago I made a decision never to call one of these without the nuts or very strong hand... any time I have ever called one I was behind...

Opinions in general on this theory? Am I wrong in general? or is it really situation dependent?

Secondly here's an example from tonights play.... I folded..

Seat 1: pappadjango ($99.80 in chips)
Seat 3: panzerIV ($448.45 in chips) DEALER
Seat 5: sausages254 ($69.65 in chips)
Seat 6: Firstgrade ($72.81 in chips)
Seat 8: Macspower ($280.22 in chips)
Seat 10: JohnnyDipp ($252.60 in chips)
sausages254: Post SB $1.00
Firstgrade: Post BB $2.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to demacc [DK CK]
Macspower: Raise $7.00
JohnnyDipp: Fold
pappadjango: Fold
panzerIV: Raise $18.00
sausages254: Fold
Firstgrade: Fold
Macspower: Call $11.00
*** FLOP *** [D8 S8 DQ]
Macspower: Check
panzerIV: Check
*** TURN *** [S10]
Macspower: Bet $20.00
panzerIV: Call $20.00
*** RIVER *** [C9]
Macspower: Bet $30.00
panzerIV: Raise $180.00
Macspower: Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $274.00 Rake $3.00
panzerIV: wins $274.00

Chucky the tree

check the river.

Hectorjelly

Chucky the tree wrote:

check the river.

no


also I would definitely fold.

peeko

how come you didn't bet the flop?

yeah I'd be folding to that river bet...

RedJoker

What are his stats? Does he 3 bet light? Even a 3 betting range of 88+ , AK, AQ has you beaten. Behind to 22, split with 1 and beat 20. There's no way I can call here, I can't see AK taking this line. Good fold imo.

Chucky the tree

Hectorjelly wrote:

no


also I would definitely fold.

Why bet? Betting $30 in a 80 pot looks very weak. Any decent player here is going to this raise this in an attempt too steal. And thats what it looks like.


Surely firing about 40 or 50 on the river is better, or even check calling?

CaptainNemo

I'd say 95% of the time that I've seen a massive overbet on the river it's from an unbeatable hand. A lot of beginner players if they flop a full house or quads will slowplay it on the flop and turn and then suddenly panic that they're not going to get paid off and shove it in on the river hoping you will put them on a bluff and call with a pair or something. Better players will make this move when they're up against someone they think is a calling station or if they think someone has made the bottom end of a straight when they've got the nuts for example. I've done it myself when I've hit a well-concealed straight on the river against someone who clearly has TPTK or two pair, and I have a table image as a highly aggressive, bluffy player.

In this hand I'd say it's case 1) - your opponent flopped a monster. Now he's pushing on the river because he thinks there's a good chance you've made a hand that can call him.

I think it's much safer to assume that this type of move is NEVER a bluff unless you've got an iron-clad read on the player.

Mr.Plough

yeah fold for me.

has qq written all over it

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Macspower

The above exaple is probably not the best to describe the point I'm trying to make..... but I thought it was QQ anyway...

Villan seemed solid as well... 22/12/2/290

But in General I've don't call one of these overbets and anytime I have called he had nuts.....

Blip

Very tuf spot,

Would villian RR PF with QQ? possible, JJ? not likely but you never know, AA? yes.

Dont think I'm ever calling a large river bet here, not much your beating, c/f river.

Mr.Plough

Hectorjelly wrote:

no

Why do you bet the river?

all you beat is AQ,AK, and i expect him to bet the flop with both after its checked to him, and hes hardly 3betting with 77-

Macspower

A few reasons for betting the river.... I think I'm ahead and if I am I don't want him checking behind... Betting the river here sometimes saves calling a much larger bet if I decide to check/call..... I'm really betting for value here and can still fold to a push...

Are the above reasons flawed?

cardshark202

No the river bet is fine. I would call it a blocker value bet

Mr.Plough

Macspower wrote:

A few reasons for betting the river.... I think I'm ahead and if I am I don't want him checking behind... Betting the river here sometimes saves calling a much larger bet if I decide to check/call..... I'm really betting for value here and can still fold to a push...

Are the above reasons flawed?

If the villain calls, your beat. If he raises, you fold. So isn't this bet effectively a bluff?

If we check and he bets, he has to have pure air for it to be a bluff.

If my thinking is out of line correct me, but i don't see one single hand that will flat call a river bet that you beat.

CaptainNemo

Mr.Plough wrote:

If the villain calls, your beat. If he raises, you fold. So isn't this bet effectively a bluff?

If we check and he bets, he has to have pure air for it to be a bluff.

If my thinking is out of line correct me, but i don't see one single hand that will flat call a river bet that you beat.

I don't like the river bet here either. You're not ahead of any hand. The only thing in favour is that if the villain has a straight he may simply call instead of raising. So if you have made your mind up to call a river bet then by betting out small you may save yourself some money if he flat calls.

Still I think you have to check/fold on the river unless it's a very small bet.

Mr.Plough

CaptainNemo wrote:

Still I think you have to check/fold on the river unless it's a very small bet.

.

Hectorjelly

The villain can call with a lot of hands we beat, we have under represented our hand and will get looked up here a lot

Mr.Plough

Hectorjelly wrote:

The villain can call with a lot of hands we beat, we have under represented our hand and will get looked up here a lot

given his stats, what hands is he 3betting pf with, that will still be here at the river, which we beat, that will call a bet?

possibly aq?