Irish Derby

mcaul

Boscobel 7/1 was supplemented today at a cost if €150,000! - This horse will love a bit of give in the ground - current going is good to soft. I reckon it will improve to good for the weekend and then it will depend on what falls on Saturday & Sunday.

Eagle Mountain is just too short a price to warrant a bet and i'd be concerned if the ground is on the soft side of good.

Collie D

What's the prize money on offer for the Derby? Half a million, 400k...? That's a serious gamble paying 150k to supplement a horse

mcaul

1st prize s in region of only €900,000!!!
2nd prize is about €400k & third about €150,000!

Another horse that will relish the softer ground is More Wells - Kevin Prendegast's yard is in great form and he thinks a lot of Mores wells. He avoided the English derby as he was concerned about the ground being too fast.


Opinion - Eagle Mountain / Boscobel win, Mores wells Place
Reverse forecast - Eagle & Bos
Trio - Eagle, Bos & Mores





BTW - Henrythenavigator should win the Anheuser-Busch Adventure Parks Railway Stakes - for ante post gamblers might be worth a flutter on 2000 guineas next may at 8/1. Utterly superb colt!

knighted

if a supplemented horse finishes in the top four u get ur supplement money back

mcaul

The supplement fee is an additional entry fee and is non refundable - basically connections expect the horse to finish third or better for the supplement to be profitable.

Boscobel currently 8/1 with PP - well worth an each way. If 1st, a €10 e.w. will pay you €116 incl. €20 stake money, a 2nd / 3rd place will get you back €26 - a small profit on yur €20 stake.

Weather / Ground update - Friday evening meeting will be good ground - Heavy rain of up to 30mm forecast for Saturday & Sunday and going will be soft and possibly even heavy by Sunday , so avoid any firm ground horse.

wb

By the way, Dettori wont be riding Boscobel as he has a whip ban.

mcaul

I would have a preference for Joe Fanning - good Jockey and had a great win aboard last week. Seems to know the horse well. Dettori would be less familiar and this can sometimes go against a horse.

BTW - Opinions on Boscobel are purely my own and I have no inside info - but I have a fairly decent win rate.

BangBeater

Yeah, the value's not with Eagle Mountain for sure considering how short he's forecast to be on the day.

BrianTheMessiah

O'Brien always has a big-priced place horse in the Irish Derby. I will back his two outsiders e/w so!

dodgyme

Al Shemali is on the move in from 16 to 12 with PP

mcaul

Here's where to have a look at all the alstest odds for the derby from all the bookmakers

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/irish-derby

And here's a couple to note for tomorrow (friday) in the curragh.

6.00 - Pittori - Likes soft ground, just pipped by Elletelle (super horse) in early june in Leopardstown - is my watch list and I think will be hard to beat on the current ground.

6.30 - Market Euphoria - Weld likes this one a lot. Won last time out and is improving all the time. Is bred for 12f and good to soft going. (I sit behind Mark Weld at the Curragh - he is particularly confident of this one as a top class horse)

7.00 - Caheerloch - another weld horse and this one relishes soft going however Dobravany is also an improving colt who likes a give in the ground.

7.30 Listen - First race. By Saddler's Wells. Sister to Henrythenavigator - O'Briens top horse for 200 guineas next year. Also sister to Sequoyah (moyglare stud stakes winner) - Hopefully the family ties will mean this will be winner 3.

8.00 - Time for a break - too many horses with a chance.

8.30 - Nothing of note.

9.00 - Nothing of note. Oxx's yard are confident of Shibina but I don't know if the ground will suit.

The jock

I like Al Shemaili in the Derby e.w

mcaul

mcaul wrote:

And here's a couple to note for tomorrow (friday) in the curragh.

6.00 - Pittori -
6.30 - Market Euphoria -
7.00 - Caheerloch -
7.30 - Listen -
9.00 - Oxx's yard are confident of Shibina but I don't know if the ground will suit.

Pittori - lost by 2 inches!!
Market Euphoria didn't get the distance
Caheerloch won 5/1
Listen won 4/1
Shibina won 7/1

masterK

Good man Mcaul.

mcaul

at the risk of losing a winning streak - here's my picks for tomorrow.

Going update 12.00 = Heavy

2.10 - Stuck between 2 horses - Leeside Champ - win (5/1)- Being very progressive this year and won last week in Naas. Also Kerama - each way (16/1) Likes the soft ground and Rodgers yard in top form these days.

2.40 - Again 2 to follow. One Great Cat (7/4) - newcomer for O'Brien. Bred for speed gets the nod over Really Ransom, (7/1) first of Oxx's 2 year olds but may prefer better ground. - Might be a race to watch rather than punt.

3.10 - Queen of Rap (25/1)- Each Way or Place only. Interesting filly who relishes heavy ground. Not too high in the ratings but the ground condition could give a big price placing.

3.45 - West Wind (3/1) - Supplemented for €25,000 this week. Likes an ease in the ground more than the others - very progressive this season and shaping to be a great filly.
Timarwa (7/2) (John Oxx) is a dark horse in this race with a big step from maidens to group 1 - watch any market move. Oxx is not putting her in the race for no reason.
Musical way (25/1)- Likes the heavier ground and brought over from France for the big race of the day. Will be a big price and worth a small each way or place only bet.

4.15 - Celtic Dane (7/1)- Prendegast likes this one and is confident the step up will see no problem. Likes the softer ground.

4.45 - Peppertree Lane (6/4)- My NAP of the day. Another who will love the soft conditions and has great form in recent weeks. 14f is best trip. UK Raider.

5.15 - Singalullaby (4/1)-I moved up to 10f for first time. Bloodline suggest he should get the distance. Likes the soft ground.

samo

Well done with those yetserday Mcaul, nice to read your selections.

mcaul

Disapointing day with just 2 winners - Celtic Dane 7/1 & Peppertree Lane evs. Ground conditions were not as bad as forecast due to strong wind & sunshine.

Rather than give opinions on all races tomorrow, just 3 races are of interest - the others are too difficult to call with any confidence whatsoever.

3.10 South Dakota - Improving horse from O'Brien should have enough to beat Irish Jig & Saoirse Abu.

Derby - Sticking with Boscobel, He's done nothing wrong in last 2 races and loves a cut in the ground. But will be watching Shamdinan and may put a few quid on him just to be sure - I just don't think eagle mountain has the finishing speed for this race.

4.35 - Laywaan - Tipped by Mark Weld today as one of their best hopes for a win. Again likes the soft ground.


also keep an eye on Ashaawes in the 5.10 - previously trained by Sayeed Bin Suroor - Forst outing under Prendergast - he had some good form last year on yielding ground and fights for position.

Tush

mcaul wrote:

Disapointing day with just 2 winners - Celtic Dane 7/1 & Peppertree Lane evs. Ground conditions were not as bad as forecast due to strong wind & sunshine.

Rather than give opinions on all races tomorrow, just 3 races are of interest - the others are too difficult to call with any confidence whatsoever.

3.10 South Dakota - Improving horse from O'Brien should have enough to beat Irish Jig & Saoirse Abu.

Derby - Sticking with Boscobel, He's done nothing wrong in last 2 races and loves a cut in the ground. But will be watching Shamdinan and may put a few quid on him just to be sure - I just don't think eagle mountain has the finishing speed for this race.

4.35 - Laywaan - Tipped by Mark Weld today as one of their best hopes for a win. Again likes the soft ground.


also keep an eye on Ashaawes in the 5.10 - previously trained by Sayeed Bin Suroor - Forst outing under Prendergast - he had some good form last year on yielding ground and fights for position.

Wont be winning so save your money me thinks.

Collie D

Have a slight fancy for the French horse Shamdinan. Think Eagle Mountain will win but at possible odds on, might be worth loking elsewhere. Shamdinan was third in French Derby and was finishing well. The extra two furlongs might suit. Should hopefully be in the first three at around about 7/1 so hopefully a bet to nothing. Boscobel to filll the other place.

scojones

Eagle Mountain and Boscobel forecast for me.

bookiebasher

with all the rain i might just go for an outsider in dermot welds prince erik

Collie D

Well that didn't go to plan at all.....won really well.

dodgyme

mcaul wrote:

Here's where to have a look at all the alstest odds for the derby from all the bookmakers

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/irish-derby

And here's a couple to note for tomorrow (friday) in the curragh.

6.00 - Pittori - Likes soft ground, just pipped by Elletelle (super horse) in early june in Leopardstown - is my watch list and I think will be hard to beat on the current ground.

6.30 - Market Euphoria - Weld likes this one a lot. Won last time out and is improving all the time. Is bred for 12f and good to soft going. (I sit behind Mark Weld at the Curragh - he is particularly confident of this one as a top class horse)

7.00 - Caheerloch - another weld horse and this one relishes soft going however Dobravany is also an improving colt who likes a give in the ground.

7.30 Listen - First race. By Saddler's Wells. Sister to Henrythenavigator - O'Briens top horse for 200 guineas next year. Also sister to Sequoyah (moyglare stud stakes winner) - Hopefully the family ties will mean this will be winner 3.

8.00 - Time for a break - too many horses with a chance.

8.30 - Nothing of note.

9.00 - Nothing of note. Oxx's yard are confident of Shibina but I don't know if the ground will suit.

Did a few of your selections for the craic. Not bad pickin. Shoulda done more of your horses. As for the curragh, it wasnt easy.