COPA AMERICA - who you on ?

Bernard Hopkins

Quick shake-down of events ............

Duration : june 26th .-. july 15th

tournament lay-out: Comprises of 12 teams, split up into 3 groups.

HOST : Venezuela

Competitors: Group A - Uraguay , Peru, Venezuela,Bolivia.
GroupB - Ecuador, Chile, Brazil, Mexico
Group c - Paraguay, Columbia, Argentina, Usa.

Qualifying conditions: Top 2 teams from each group,..along with the 2 highest 3rd place teams.

Fixtures: Group A
June 26 Uruguay v Peru (Merida)
June 26 Venezuela v Bolivia (San Cristobal)
June 30 Bolivia v Uruguay (San Cristobal)
June 30 Venezuela v Peru (San Cristobal)
July 3 Peru v Bolivia (Merida)
July 3 Venezuela v Uruguay (Merida)



Group B
June 27 Ecuador v Chile (Puerto Ordaz)
June 27 Brazil v Mexico (Puerto Ordaz)
July 1 Brazil v Chile (Maturin)
July 1 Mexico v Ecuador (Maturin)
July 4 Mexico v Chile (Puerto La Cruz)
July 4 Brazil v Ecuador (Puerto La Cruz)



Group C
June 28 Paraguay v Colombia (Maracaibo)
June 28 Argentina v United States (Maracaibo)
July 2 United States v Paraguay (Barinas)
July 2 Argentina v Colombia (Maracaibo)
July 5 Colombia v United States (Barquisimeto)
July 5 Argentina v Paraguay (Barquisimeto)

Bernard Hopkins

MY TIP

PARAGUAY:
Heart and soul. Nothing drives a team further than will and motivation, and Paraguay has both.
New coach Martino picks the following squad,... of which ,4players will be left aside:
Villar (Newell's Old Boys), Bobadilla (Boca Juniors), Zayas (Bolivar); Veron (Pumas), Da Silva (Toluca), Julio Caceres (Tigres), Caniza (Atlas), Manzur (Guarani), Maldonado (Napoli), Morel Rodriguez (Boca Juniors), Aguilar (Sportivo Luqueno), Victor Caceres (Libertad); Barreto, Bonet, Riveros (both Libertad), Vera (Liga Deportiva Universitaria), Torres (San Lorenzo), Salcedo, Gonzalez (Cerro Porteno), Montiel (Udinese), Santana (Wolfsburg), Dos Santos (Bayern Munich); Cuevas, Cabanas (America), Cardozo (Newell's Old Boys), Lopez (Crotone), Santa Cruz (Bayern Munich).

Paraguay played a 1-0 win against Mexico last week, ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSOaGAmbkJo ) and drew against Austria . they have a fantastic style of play and exciting to watch !! 3 strikers up front usually.

ODDS : 25/1 is the best from any bookmaker, but going to the exchanges, Paraguay can be backed @ a whooping 70/1 on Betfair.

They will play in a favourable group which should at least see them a healthy 2nd or 3rd.

They play Argentina last,... when Argentina should have already qualified.

They also play USA who will have just finished the GOLD CUP tourney... which is the priority tournament to them. Usa had declined to take thier position in the Copa America tournament initially.

With a weakened Brazil team ,.. in a tough group, the chances of Brazil failing to dominate their group will see the odds shorten dramatically for the weaker nations.

Man to watch is Oscar Cordoza , Newell Ol' Boys !!!!
Paraguay play a friendly against Bolivia during the week,..could be a guide to the performance of their selected team .



TIT-BITS: The world class Ronaldinho and Kaka are not in Brazil's line-up this tourney,.... on their own request.

p.u.d.z.e.r.

Im going for Uruguay e/w at 14/1 in Boyles. Provided Brazil and Argentina win their groups they wont meet until the final. Forlan and Recoba up front will be a handful for any defence and they only missed out on the world cup by a peno shootout with Australia.

zuutroy

I think taking Paraguay, and laying them off in the knockout stages looks to be the one to go for.

[nicK]

p.u.d.z.e.r. wrote:

Im going for Uruguay e/w at 14/1 in Boyles. Provided Brazil and Argentina win their groups they wont meet until the final. Forlan and Recoba up front will be a handful for any defence and they only missed out on the world cup by a peno shootout with Australia.

uraguay are 10/1 boyles, 11/1 betfair.. no 14/1 available anywhere..

Bateman

12s available on Betfred.

http://odds.bestbetting.com/football/copa-america/winner

Bernard Hopkins

zuutroy wrote:

I think taking Paraguay, and laying them off in the knockout stages looks to be the one to go for.

yeah,......thats the most profitable looking bet i can see.
You hope and pray for Brazil to falter, they should be playing with a lot of "domestic" players, i.e players from the Brazilian league.
stranger things have happened !!

Paraguay are currently @ 75's ........ asking for 80, could be a good time to buy.
surely if they beat Bolivia they will drop below 70's ??????

they play at home against Bolivia tomorrow (tuesday) in a friendly,.....
im thinking,.. if Ireland B-side can draw in America against Bolivia, then Paraguay at home should thrash them 2, or 3 nil ????
Prices are determined largely by form , and your last game rates highest when looking at form.
If Paraguay thrash Bolivia, then i'll clear out the entire 70's on Betfair.

Bateman

Good thread lads. I just got a token bet on Paraguay at 75. Can see some tired mornings in work next week.

Bernard Hopkins

Sky showing the following so far :


Wednesday 27th June
Football 23:30 Sky Sports 1 Ecuador v Chile
Thursday 28th June
Football 01:45 Sky Sports 1 Brazil v Mexico
Football 23:30 Sky Sports 1 Paraguay v Colombia
Friday 29th June
Football 01:45 Sky Sports 1 Argentina v USA

p.u.d.z.e.r.

Well feck that anyway, myself and my mate were looking at oddschecker last friday night and Boyles were definitely quoting 14/1 about Uruguay. Il probably just do them on bf for an interest. I like the k.o times, Friday 01:45 Sky Sports 1 Argentina v USA is a standout.

Bernard Hopkins

You can watch the Paraguay game live against Bolivia here :
http://myp2p.eu/forum/viewtopic.php?id=14167

its actually at a nuetral venue i think ..........

at 12 o clock tomorrow night

Bateman

Fair play BH, I can now lay off Paraguay for a free bet of €551 post-comm, price is now 40back50lay.

Not going to get out, mind you, going to wait til at least the outcome of tonight's friendly, which you would have to fancy Paraguay to win. Game is in Bolivia by the way, but Santa Cruz; the city with the altitude controversy is La Paz. Paraguay 2.6 for peanuts on betfair.

Bernard Hopkins

Anybody who took my tip,...........

Lay off now.
Paraguay are 40 on betfair.
they are begging for 50,............

best o luck,
B-Hop

Aedh Baclamh

What was your tip? Back them at 75s?

Bernard Hopkins

well,....im thinking of laying , i think the price will rise again,.... so i will re-back them @65's which i think is a fair and decent price.

i took 100E on...... them 45E @75 and 55E@80 on betfair have sold between 70 + 65 . will watch the game now on the link...

B-hop

Bubs101

Plump for Mexico. The big teams don't always dominmate this tournament and I could easily see them beating a weakened Brazil side. According to football manager, there keeper is world class. It's worth a small one anyway

Mezcita

Bubs101 wrote:

Plump for Mexico. The big teams don't always dominmate this tournament and I could easily see them beating a weakened Brazil side. According to football manager, there keeper is world class. It's worth a small one anyway

Not a hope in hell. They have somehow managed to get to the semi-final stage in the Gold Cup despite the fact that they have been misfiring the whole way. They have some good players who are playing in Europe but I think in this case its their manager who is out of his depth.

Dec McC

just read this thread now - missed out on the paraguay tip

lastest odds with pp:

Argentina 11 - 8 Colombia 20 - 1 Ecuador 40 - 1
Brazil 15 - 8 Venezuela 20 - 1 USA 40 - 1
Mexico 10 - 1 Paraguay 25 - 1 Peru 66 - 1
Uruguay 10 - 1 Chile 33 - 1 Bolivia 150 - 1

Bernard Hopkins

somebody's gone mad at betfair,.......... they're offering great prices now,...just got Ecuador @ 280 ,..... Peru @220 ,....etc.

Peru are great Value here,.... they're stil @ 220 ! the highest odds yet

Bernard Hopkins

anybody take Peru @ 220 last night,...........????????

they are begging for 95 on betfair now,........ sell up !!!

Bernard Hopkins

sell fora healthy profit on ecuador too,...... asking 170's

Aedh Baclamh

Bernard Hopkins wrote:

anybody take Peru @ 220 last night,...........????????

they are begging for 95 on betfair now,........ sell up !!!

Hope someone backed them at 220

ErinGoBrath

What sort of profit do you make in the Peru trade for example? i.e. buying at 220 and selling at 30.

zuutroy

ErinGoBrath wrote:

What sort of profit do you make in the Peru trade for example? i.e. buying at 220 and selling at 30.

Example:

Back 100 at 220......Lay 733 at 30 to give yourself a guaranteed profit of just over 600 euro.

ErinGoBrath

Nice little earner that :cool:

Bernard Hopkins

Have a look at Argentina,......... they are 2.1 on betfair,...... whilst they are 2.2 at a whole heap of bookmakers !!!!

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/copa-america/win-market

if that isnt an over-reaction then i dont know what is !!!!
They havent even kicked a ball yet !!

IrishMike

Argentina are 5-6 with a 1 goal handicap for the USA match
Outstanding price considering they are playing against the USA b team
who have just finished another tournament less than 10 days ago.
Plus the Argentina team is loaded to the gills with attacking players
Can see they winning by at least 3 clear goals
Hopefully will be easy money

S.M.B.

Went with USA +1.5 myself. Starting to regret it now. Still think it'll be closer than the 3 goal victory you're predicting above.

Think I'm going to stick with the over 1.5/2.5 goals for the rest of the group games.

ronan.h

I'm on the Argentina to be leading by the 20th minute as 21/10 with PP - can see them putting on a bit of a show tonight...:D

S.M.B.

Argentina's squad is phenomenol but when you consider that only 6 teams get knocked out in the group stages the big teams really don't have to put in that much effort. I'd be worried about this lazy attitude from the big teams so I'm avoiding bets like the 'leading at 20 minutes' one above.

Of course they could demolish the US like they did with Serbia last year.

RaiseTheBlinds

Paraguay - Nice tip
thanks you,

Pity I missed the Peru boat.

DRakE

my first time on the whole gambling thing..

whats the business about laying and selling and buying and all that? :O

zuutroy

DRakE wrote:

my first time on the whole gambling thing..

whats the business about laying and selling and buying and all that? :O

Everything you need to know is here:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054910815

DRakE

thanks mate, giving that a read atm

IrishMike

S.M.B. wrote:

Went with USA +1.5 myself. Starting to regret it now. Still think it'll be closer than the 3 goal victory you're predicting above.

Think I'm going to stick with the over 1.5/2.5 goals for the rest of the group games.

Lol argentina win 4-1.
Handy money.
Pity i didnt have the nuts to back at -2 handicap.

S.M.B.

IrishMike wrote:

Lol argentina win 4-1.
Handy money.
Pity i didnt have the nuts to back at -2 handicap.

First 60 minutes went exactly according to plan. US seemed very organised and deserved to be level. Pity about the last half hour though!

Bernard Hopkins

can anybody understand Chile's high price at the moment ?????

they are back trading @ 70 - 75 on betfair.the same price they were before they took 3 points from the Ecuador game !!!!!

they play Brazil tonight and that should have been the over-reaction necessary to change the prices,......but with Brazil's new injury crisis, both Brazil and Chile's odds are rising !!!!

One must wait to see if Mexico fall thru the floor here.

Please god now Chile will do ok...... 12.5k to win/lay off. A draw may see them thru to the next round.

DRakE

so whos your pick then bernard?

Bernard Hopkins

well Ive taken a huge chunk on Chile,....
I dont know if it was the right choice or not,....... but i think they are a massivly generous price @ 70. Unfortunatly i backed them @ 60 and 65, and have a bit on 75 if i can get it !!!!

I'm assuming Chile will get through, with 3 points in the bag already.. and with eight teams left it would be hard to envisage odds over 35 - 40 max !!

of course if Brazil win , and they should.... then Chile's price will rise again a little.

Bernard Hopkins

got out luckily at 65,with a 3k free bet...they'll be up against it now to qualify for the next round.


Quarter Finals
07-Jul-2007 Best 3rd Place v 2nd Group B Maracaibo 01:50 GMT
07-Jul-2007 Winner A v 2nd Best 3rd Place San Cristóbal 23:05 GMT
08-Jul-2007 Winner B v Second C Maturín 21:05 GMT
08-Jul-2007 Winner C v Second A Barquisimento 23:50 GMT

Semi Finals
10-Jul-2007 Winner QF1 v Winner QF2 Caracas 01:50 GMt
10-Jul-2007 Winner QF3 v Winner QF4 Puerto Ordaz 01:50 GMT

Third Place Play-off
14-Jul-2007 Loser SF1 v Loser SF2 Caracas 22:05 GMT

Final
15-Jul-2007 Winner SF1 v Winner SF2 Maracaibo 22:05

---

now anybody wondering how the best 3rd place teams are determined ???? read this :

1.1 Greater number of points obtained.

1.2 Team with best goal difference. This difference is obtained by subtracting goals conceded from goals scored.

1.3 If there is no goal difference, the team that will qualify will be the one with greater number of goals scored.

1.4 If two teams are still tied, and the tie remains, the declared winner will be the winner of the head-to-head match.

1.5 If qualification cannot be defined after the successive application of the regulation, the drawing of lots in the presence of representatives of the respective institutions will take place.

1.6 If two teams are equal before they play the last match of their respective group, and if the equality still persists after applying all the criteria described in items 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 e 1.4 successively, the result will be defined in compliance with the execution of the maximum penalties, as determined in the regulations of FIFA.

ErinGoBrath

I'm liking the thread Bernard. Keep it going!

Don't suppose there's any chance of you putting posting a log of your 'trades' from the start of the tournament i.e. Who you bought/sold, for how much and what price.

It'd be keen to get into this and I'm just curious to see how profitable it can be when done correctly.

Cheers man :cool:

Bernard Hopkins

Argentina
2.17 €1,656.37

---

€1,934.38

Brazil
3.65 €562.98

---

€1,492.94


Mexico
12.61 €109.00

---

€1,266.00

Uruguay
55 €13.00

---

€702.00


Venezuela
26 €3.50

---

€87.50

Paraguay
67.53 €128.96

---

€8,579.28

Chile
61.8 €377.34

---

€22,941.86

Ecuador
165.2 €45.51

---

€7,472.94

Peru
77.28 €101.48

---

€7,741.00


Bolivia
390 €3.31

---

€1,287.59
................................................................................
Lay

Argentina
2.16 €1,660.91

---

€1,921.18


Brazil
3.51 €569.35

---

€1,431.76


Mexico
11.64 €117.48

---

€1,250.31

Venezuela
21 €4.00

---

€80.00


Paraguay
66.09 €123.00

---

€8,006.00

Chile
61.47 €338.79

---

€20,486.29

Ecuador
145.5 €49.94

---

€7,216.55


Peru
56.24 €134.28

---

€7,417.48


Bolivia
270 €4.00

---

€1,076.00

total backed 3001 .......totaL layed 3001.

Bernard Hopkins

thats my average odds,........... but i took a loss on a couple , its only educated guess-work to be honest.

but the trend is that there is a big over-reaction immediately after a match finishes,............ then it is 4 days or more before the team plays again,.by that stage the "backing frenzy" is over and the prices are rising slowly.

come the game,....... the pro's withdraw their stakes (for fear of somebody with a quicker feed) .leaving a gap for people to slot their offer in.

as the game gets under-way,...the casual punter steps in ,.. the guy who dosent know what the real trading price is,........ he see's "30" up when it should be "50" and dosent know any better.

lets take an example here of Uruaguay .....

after they won their last game , the price dropped drastically (betting frenzy)..... dropped to about "22" or "23" on the exchanges.
many days later and the price has risen to "55" which i have just backed.
nothing has changed , so the price should have remained stable.

so why the jump from 22 to 55 ?....... lack of betting frenzy.
Uruaguay play tomorrow night,....... i Reckon i can lay Uruauay for "40"
giving me a free bet of 15 times my stake.

I lost the plot on the Paraguay v Colombia game,........
columbia get a penalty,...... i rushed to lay off ,
paraguay save the penalty,...kick the ball up the field and score to take the lead.
My luck is terrible.

Bernard Hopkins

My Green Up :

Argentina
€9
Brazil
€55.11

Mexico
€7.51

Uruguay
€715.30

Venezuela
€7.30

Columbia
€0.30

Paraguay
€579.54

USA
€0.30

Chile
€2,494.42

Ecuador
€252.26

Peru
€291.02

Bolivia
€211.20

zuutroy

Bernard Hopkins wrote:

My Green Up :

Fair play Bernard. Your posts are all top notch. Keep up the good work.

S.M.B.

Columbia were so bad in there last game against Paraguay in the last game, Argentina -1.5 at evens seems like good value.

Bateman

Fair play BH, trying to stay awake is a right struggle.

Argentina
€0.00

Brazil
€0.00

Mexico
€23.80

Uruguay
€0.00

Venezuela
€0.00

Colombia
€0.00

Paraguay
€551.68

USA
€0.00

Chile
€0.00

Ecuador
€0.00

Peru
€146.34

Bolivia
€0.00

Aedh Baclamh

Guys, got any decent links to learn more about this? Need to get into this soon I feel. Should have traded out last night during the U20 Portugal game

Bernard Hopkins

We are now an hour before Uraguay kick off,..... they are currently trading @ "40" on betfair,...... asking for 42 and available to back @ 38.

Venezuela have also dropped,.... which dosent balance correctly,.....they were available @ 70 a few days ago,..... now trading @ 34 and asking for 42.

oh god,..... Peru are loosing.

IrishMike

Can see argentina getting a good win again tonight.
Crespo is out for possibly the rest of the tournament but they have Tevez as his
replacement (unreal strength in depth)
Should win by at least 1 if not 2.
Will back them with basically everything in my online accounts and make some
handy cash hopefully.

Bernard Hopkins

gosh,......thats a commitment isnt it ?!!!!

could be a slow paced game here,... as they are both through.
Last night we seen a game go 0-0 , comfortably seeing the 2 teams both go through ! they didnt really fight for table position.

You could see players getting a break on both sides.

why not wait a while and get a better price in-running ?

Best o luck,
B-Hop