TT after a raise and a reraise

Jam-Fly

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t3345)
BB (t5378)
UTG (t4570)
MP (t3815)
CO (t6417)
Button (t3475)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, T.
UTG raises to t4520, 1 fold, CO raises to t6367,
HERO???

18man SNG, top 4 get money, FT.
There has been someone pushing nearly everyhand, but never getting called without a premium hand (AJ+, 88+)
What to do here with TT?

insafehands

He's all-in, call.

shrapnel222

against 2 all ins i fold here

Brayruit

definite fold in normal circumstances

here I would probably call as stack is very low and hoipe to be up against a lower pair and AK.... and then hope to hold up!

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Moneymaker

Hmmm, i'd probably fold.

Tar.Aldarion

Fold, I woulod fold jj too, maybe qq. That's just me though!

NeoSlicerZ

Mm, fold, I'd expect to be racing at best... I'd fold JJ but not QQ with these stacks.

Brayruit

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Fold. If UTG gets knocked out and you have the button next hand playing five handed I think it is pretty favourable. Yeah, I expect UTG's range to be pretty big - but the CO's shove will be much less so.

Good chance that CO is shoving with a big ace, no?

CaptainNemo

Fold and wait for a better spot to get your chips in. You're very likely to be up against at least 1 big pair. Even if you're not - let's say if you're up against 88 and AKs - you would be less than 50% to hold up against both hands. I'd guess a 75% chance you're up against a bigger pair and 25% that it's a smaller pair and overcards.

I'd fold this pretty much every time. I'd probably also fold JJ. QQ I think I would play but it's marginal and would depend on the players.

Funnily enough I would play AKs here. Aces and kings are less likely so you may be racing against 2 smaller pairs or a pair and AQ.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Tar.Aldarion

NeoSlicerZ wrote:

Mm, fold, I'd expect to be racing at best... I'd fold JJ but not QQ with these stacks.

So..so...loose.

Funnily enough I would play AKs here. Aces and kings are less likely so you may be racing against 2 smaller pairs or a pair and AQ.

It's the second guy you have to worry about, I would say ak would be his minimum, well if he is an ok playaaa

LuckyLloyd

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insafehands

Mis-read this, thought it was against 1 all-in.

However, me being the fish that I am, I'd still consider a call.

Samba

question

What level buyin are you playing?

Everyone here is selling very narrow hand ranges, the biggest stack at the table is 11 bbs.

In normal circumstances it's an insta fold but with these stack sizes I would strongly consider a call.

If you call and win you put yourself in a firm position to take it down, if you fold and get to the bubble (which is not even guaranteed) you will have 5 bb's and play is going to tighten up and the bigger stacks will start applying pressure to the shorties so unless you go ultra aggro with your stack. By the time you pick up a hand you wont have the chips to protect your hand.

You will be crushed by higher pairs some of the time but you will also be up against the likes of QK/AK.

It's a tough spot but certainly not an instant fold, better spots are going to be difficult to find with 5 bbs imo you might eventually find one with 3 bbs

Brayruit

Samba wrote:

... better spots are going to be difficult to find with 5 bbs imo.

Zackly what I was trying to say but more eloquent...

... mind you Lloyd's answer is convincing me otherwise now.

Samba

I'd be very interested to see the math behind calling and folding very hard to calculate with so many variables.

Brayruit

Assuming that chips approx. correlated with tournament EV (as we have not reached the money yet this is pretty ok, but the big flaw is that it does not allow for the fact that you have button next hand)
Assuming that the BB will fold (but that is v. likely)

If you fold, EV is 2995.

If you call and win, EV is 10785

If you call and lose, EV is zero.

So calling is +EV if the probability of winning against the two players is more than 2995/10785 = 27.8%

If you are up against a smaller pair and two overs, you are way over this mark.

If you are up against an overpair and two overs you are looking for a T to fall (and nothing else to go wrong) which I recollect puts you at about 20% (?)

What is the probability of these different (and other situations) arising based on what we know / assume about the ranges? I dunno... someone got pokerstove?

It seems to me that the conclusion from the maths would be call BUT....

As noted by Lloyd above you are about to get the button and there is a good chance that you might get a better spot or that 2 other players will bust out soon and at least get you into 4th... this maths doesn't allow for that.

NickyOD

clear fold for me.

eggie

clear fold, at best your racing and prob against more than 2 overs. better spots ahead.

DeVore

50/50 call/fold so it would depend on reads for me. Probably call if I dont have a decent read.

DeV.

RoundTower

I thought this should be a fold but Brayruit's post has me thinking.

If you give CO a range of AJ+, 88+,
then it is pretty much impossible to give UTG a range where you can fold.

for example:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/simulate.jsp?g=he&b=&h1=A2-AK%2C+KJ-KT%2C+QJ-QT%2C+JT%2C+22-AA&h2=AJ-AK%2C+88-AA&h3=TT&h4=&h5=

Hand 			Pot equity	Wins		Ties
A2-AK,KJ-KT,QJ-QT,JT,22-AA 	22.55% 	130,091 	11,131
AJ-AK,88-AA 	 	 	38.67% 	225,616 	13,427
TT 	 	 	  	38.78% 	229,079 	7,902

You are getting 5-2 on your money so 38% is a very big edge (you need 28.6%). Yes you will have the button next hand, but "There has been someone pushing nearly every hand". Your four free hands or the chance BB wakes up with a hand are not enough to make up for the immediate equity you lose by folding. Also, being the short stack on the bubble means you leak equity to the bigger stacks.

Only way you can fold is if you think one of the players is significantly tighter than the range above.

NickyOD

Wow, I figured this was probably slightly positive in chip equity but slightly negative in $ equity. Can someone run this through a tool like SnG wizard that takes into account the payouts?

RoundTower

I'm going to change my mind again. I fiddled with this ICM calculator which says winning this pot only about doubles your $ equity. No way you are 50% to win the pot so it becomes a clear fold again.

Brayruit

I fiddled with it as well... maybe incorrectly... and saw the equity go from .13 before to .30 if the pot is won which seems closer to justifying a call.

Am I correct in thinking that position after the hand (i.e. on the button) should affect $ equity? This does not seem to be taken into account in the ICM calculator.

Do you know what the "Tournalyzer" does on propokertools? I fiddled around with it but I'm not sure I knew what I was doing.

LuckyLloyd

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digiman

I think this is a fold, for the reasons LuckyLoyld says.
I dont think that you are in much better shape here with JJ or QQ as AK is very likely to be here somewhere.

As for the maths, do we ever have time to figure these out when we are playing online? Is there any programs that do this for us?

mewso

digiman wrote:

As for the maths, do we ever have time to figure these out when we are playing online? Is there any programs that do this for us?

No I don't think anyone expects to calculate the EV of the hand as it happens but you can learn for future hands what the +EV move is in situations like this and hoepfully remember it.

Ace2007

thats rigth fold ur 10's, i bet when u did stick ur money in the pot - u had a worse hand, and where probably behind???

Goodluck2me

You gotta try keep things on edge, I would fold them but sometimes I would call for the craic, they could both have AK.