Donkey call or not?

CaptainNemo

On the bubble of a freezeout tournament, I have about 5k and the blinds are 400-800. I am in the CO with 87c and it's folded around to me. Sometimes I will push in this spot and sometimes fold, but this time I decided to limp.

The button, a tight player with a short stack, pushes for about 7k. The BB, a loose-passive calling station with a big stack, calls. I am putting the button on a big ace and the BB on a wide range from ace-rag to QJ, Kx or perhaps a small PP.

I'm getting something like 2.6 to 1. The prize structure is such that just creeping into the money gets you nothing but vouchers - only the top 3 places are worth playing for.

Call or fold?

5starpool

Assuming that one has an overpair, and the other overcards, then you are not getting the right price really. I'd fold and push the next time it came to me in an unopened pot.

dvdfan

Your Getting about 3.5/1 for the likes of AA-99 vs your 87s
Your Getting about 1.4/1 for the likes of AK Vs 87
Your Getting about 3/1 if your dominated like A8 vs 87s

If it was heads up maybe but against and 2 of them combined your defo not getting the odds

CaptainNemo

I did make the (donkey) call because I really didn't think I was up against an overpair, but I think it probably was incorrect from a strictly odds point of view. However taking into account the prize structure heavily weighted towards the 1st 3 places and the fact that creeping into the money gets you practically nothing, does this swing anyone's opinion towards a call?

As it turned out, I was up against AKo and AJo, with only the J in clubs. Can anyone let me know what the odds are in that case? I would run it myself but I can't access the odds calculator while I'm at work.

5starpool

I can't either, so won't even make a guess (OK so, I think you are probably around 27-30% here in this particular case, but may be way wrong.) Also, limp calling with this hand is not great. Shoving in this case would have ended up with you in the same situation but that is a moot point. the fact that there are only a few prizes worth playing for shouldn't really make a difference as you should be looking to play each hand in a positive fashion anyhow taking all relevant circumstances into account, and limp calling isn't the best way for this I think.

Saying that though, I often find myself falling into the same trap as you and basically hand over the last of my tournie chips, and it is something I am trying to stop.

El Stuntman

CaptainNemo wrote:

As it turned out, I was up against AKo and AJo, with only the J in clubs. Can anyone let me know what the odds are in that case? I would run it myself but I can't access the odds calculator while I'm at work.

AK 42%
AJ 21%
You 37%

Chucky the tree

Hand 0: 36.691% 36.60% 00.09% 501750 1191.33 { 8c7c }
Hand 1: 20.807% 19.32% 01.48% 264873 20345.83 { AsJc }
Hand 2: 42.502% 41.02% 01.48% 562248 20345.83 { AdKh }

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

CaptainNemo

the fact that there are only a few prizes worth playing for shouldn't really make a difference as you should be looking to play each hand in a positive fashion anyhow taking all relevant circumstances into account, and limp calling isn't the best way for this I think.

I agree and with that short a stack I will almost never limp. I suppose a factor in my mind was that I thought I was sure to get called since I had shoved twice in about the last 6 or 7 hands. I had even had a joking conversation at the table about how I was going to have to get called next time.

However I don't know if I agree about the tournament circumstances not making a difference. When you're calculating odds for a tourney you have to take into account the money jumps that you may make with certain decisions. For example (this is taken pretty much straight from David Sklansky) there are certain circumstances where it would be mathematically correct to fold aces preflop - such as if there are 5 players left, 1 with 3 million in chips, 3 with 1mil, and you with 50,000, and for some bizarre reason 2 of the 1 mil stacks go all in and get called by the big stack. The jump from prize money from 5th (if you lose with your aces) to 4th (if 1 of the small stacks wins) or 3rd (if the big stack wins) is 5k to 8k to 12k. The possibility of tripling up to 150,000 will still leave you with a minuscule stack compared to the others at the table and your chances of improving another place are small compared to the risk that your aces may get cracked by 1 of the 3 other hands in play.

So in this case I was thinking that if I fold and have 4k left I have virtually no chance of making the higher places which were all I was interested in. But if I call and triple up I am in contention for them. It's not as extreme a case as described above but it was a factor in my decision.

There was one other factor but I won't mention that until I find out if anyone thinks my thinking on this point is valid or not...

fuzzbox

If you dont shove preflop, then you should fold preflop, because investing nearly 20% of your stack preflop with 8-hi and zero fold equity, is bad poker.

By limping, you have created a compounding error situation, and you ended up calling off the last 80 (or so)% of your stack Vs two players ... with 8-hi, just because you "didnt think you were up against an overpair". 8x or 7x where X is >(either 7 or 8) have you in bad shape as well as 77+.

Commit preflop, or just fold.

5starpool

CaptainNemo wrote:

So in this case I was thinking that if I fold and have 4k left I have virtually no chance of making the higher places which were all I was interested in. But if I call and triple up I am in contention for them. It's not as extreme a case as described above but it was a factor in my decision.

Two wrongs do not make a right to be honest. I'd rather take a 40-60 shot at a double up (plus blinds maybe) than a 30-70 shot at a treble up, but that is just me as I hate going into hands as a huge dog, but sometimes these things are unavoidable. That might make the most sense mathswise, but it is not all about maths.

CaptainNemo

fuzzbox wrote:

If you dont shove preflop, then you should fold preflop, because investing nearly 20% of your stack preflop with 8-hi and zero fold equity, is bad poker.

By limping, you have created a compounding error situation, and you ended up calling off the last 80 (or so)% of your stack Vs two players ... with 8-hi, just because you "didnt think you were up against an overpair". 8x or 7x where X is >(either 7 or 8) have you in bad shape as well as 77+.

Commit preflop, or just fold.

Yup no arguments from me, I am aware that limping was a terrible move here and am only interested in whether I should call or not in this spot once I've gotten myself into the situation.

Iago

I would never limp, but having limped I fold.

A tight player pushes into the bb of a loose calling station and a preflop limper. The loose calling station then calls covering you, so the tight player is definitely ahead of you and the bb could be holding some of your outs and be ahead of you.

I fold and push with any reasonable holding the next time I get a chance

RoundTower

If you limp here, you don't really need to find out if you should call or fold here, it's so close a decision it won't have a noticeable effect on your results.

Hectorjelly

5starpool wrote:

That might make the most sense mathswise, but it is not all about maths.

From other posts I get the impression you are happy to play badly because it doesn't seem important to you, thats fine but I think its bad form for a moderator to post stuff nonsense. All in preflop equity questions are all about maths, nothing else.

30something

I think the fact that this hand is on the bubble is highly relevent, not from OP's point of view (as he doesn't care to get "vouchers", only a top 3 cash, meaning OP is "not" on "bubble" in his mind), but the 2 AIs after OP are probably NOT thinking like this. It is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that at least one player (the one after the first AI), if not both, have monsters to be going AI after a limper as the tourney is on the bubble.

Having worked that out (and btw I would never have called in the first place, its AI or fold for me) and bearing in mind OP has limped with rags, the decision facing OP should be

"What are my odds of winning this hand if I call compared to my odds in the pot, I now know at least one hand has me smashed and its likely both do".

A reasonable deduction is that you are up against 1 x over pair and 1 x set of overcards. That gives odds of less then 10% (I think) against the other two hands to win outright meaning OP needs 10-1 in the pot to call.

If you are not getting the 10-1 then the call is simply bad at any stage in the tourney

Ste05

fuzzbox wrote:

If you dont shove preflop, then you should fold preflop, because investing nearly 20% of your stack preflop with 8-hi and zero fold equity, is bad poker.

By limping, you have created a compounding error situation, and you ended up calling off the last 80 (or so)% of your stack Vs two players ... with 8-hi, just because you "didnt think you were up against an overpair". 8x or 7x where X is >(either 7 or 8) have you in bad shape as well as 77+.

Commit preflop, or just fold.

This basically sums it up, you said you normally fold or push, but this time you limp, therefore surely you should have said I usually either fold, push or limp. :rolleyes:

Limping is really really bad here. It's quite simply a push or fold, from your next post you say that you were likely to looked up because of your image, therefore you need to do some maths to see what sort of hands will likely call your push, and then the chances of one of those hands being held by one of the remaining players, then work out how your hand will perform against that range, and work out if you think it's a good push, obviously it's quite hard to do this to a degree of certainty at the time, Sikes will be along soon to work out the maths I'm sure, he seems to like threads like this...

Then you Push or Fold, I'd probably push myself from the CO.

CaptainNemo

OK, consensus reached I guess, fold fold fold...and fold preflop or shove it.

The final piece of info is that I had 50% of the button and was not going to be too displeased if he ended up getting my chips, which is how it worked out after a K high flop.

5starpool

Hectorjelly wrote:

From other posts I get the impression you are happy to play badly because it doesn't seem important to you, thats fine but I think its bad form for a moderator to post stuff nonsense. All in preflop equity questions are all about maths, nothing else.

You have quite the way with words don't you?

I am not prepared to put my chips in with muck against multiple opponents just because I may be getting a slight edge on my money. I don't agree 100% that in every case you should take even the slightest edge such as calling for all your chips with 22 when your oppoent has shoved, thinks everyone has folded, and shows AK. Of course maths are important, and whatever you think about me, despite having never played with me, I do use maths heavily, but not religiously.

Also, when I posted in that thread where you complained about threads being locked, cited an example, then didn't bother contributing to that thread when it was reopend 30 minutes later, I was posting as a moderator. In this thread I am not. I am well aware that I am no super player, however, my moderator status is irrelevant on this forum most of the time, and only arises when needed.

El Stuntman

CaptainNemo wrote:

The final piece of info is that I had 50% of the button and was not going to be too displeased if he ended up getting my chips, which is how it worked out after a K high flop.

nice spot of chip dumping sir, wp

CaptainNemo

El Stuntman wrote:

nice spot of chip dumping sir, wp

I know, I know. I'm not saying I didn't want to win the pot, I called because I wanted to triple up. But I'd be lying if I said that it didn't enter my mind that I wasn't going to be heartbroken with one of the other possible outcomes. Seems a bit harsh to call that chip dumping...

El Stuntman

CaptainNemo wrote:

I know, I know. I'm not saying I didn't want to win the pot, I called because I wanted to triple up. But I'd be lying if I said that it didn't enter my mind that I wasn't going to be heartbroken with one of the other possible outcomes. Seems a bit harsh to call that chip dumping...

50% is a big % - do you usually swap that much or had you staked the other guy?

CaptainNemo

El Stuntman wrote:

50% is a big % - do you usually swap that much or had you staked the other guy?

I staked him. He's kind of new to live poker.

Hectorjelly

5starpool wrote:

Also, when I posted in that thread where you complained about threads being locked, cited an example, then didn't bother contributing to that thread when it was reopend 30 minutes later, I was posting as a moderator. In this thread I am not. I am well aware that I am no super player, however, my moderator status is irrelevant on this forum most of the time, and only arises when needed.

Sorry, didn't mean to appear so antagonistic. I was refering to your comments in the omaha thread, not the thread closing one!

5starpool

My comments that state that I know I am too loose but don't recommend that people play with junk?