$100k Guaranteed on Mansion

carfax

19 players left. Pretty card dead but not particuarly worrying.....

Blinds 2000 - 4000 with 200 Ante.....30,000 stack.
Folded to you with 4 players to act behind you (all with average to big stacks we are second from last in terms of dragging the tournament along).
Ac8d - Push?, Fold?

Oh yeah and prize money jumps from $600 for 19th to $850 for 18th before the next jump which is at 9th place to $1600.

BigCityBanker

this is surely a pretty standard push? If not id like to know why not?

carfax

BigCityBanker wrote:

this is surely a pretty standard push? If not id like to know why not?

Yeah, I know the standard thinking of less than 10 BB = Push with any starting hand but I'm not a fan of that so just want to get opinions......

Maybe because the next player to act had aces but more because I'm trying to work the grey matter......

I also had to click cancel on my Vegas flights which I was in the process of booking if I cashed for more than 10k.......

robinlacey

definite push i'd imagine,there's 8k in there and your stack is only 30k,so given that you have some fold equity and reasonable equity against the range that calls you i don't see how you can pass this up.

if you've been card dead then i presume you've been playing fairly tight also,which makes this even more of a push.

NickyOD

I think that one is about a break even push depending on your image and the the type of players behind you. I prob push because of the antes but sometimes I fold there. I'd prefer something like JTs in that spot.

carfax

robinlacey wrote:

definite push i'd imagine,there's 8k in there and your stack is only 30k,so given that you have some fold equity and reasonable equity against the range that calls you i don't see how you can pass this up.

if you've been card dead then i presume you've been playing fairly tight also,which makes this even more of a push.

Yeah my image is rock solid as I've been picking my spots very carefully....I suppose it was a make myself feel better post but hey.

carfax

NickyOD wrote:

I'd prefer something like JTs in that spot.

Yeah I did consider folding which is maybe why its bugging me but why do you prefer JTs hot & cold?

nicnicnic

I push standard push, I want to know why its not particularly worrying with 7.5 BBs and card dead

carfax

nicnicnic wrote:

I push standard push, I want to know why its not particularly worrying with 7.5 BBs and card dead

Well I am worrying but not panicking.

The card dead is really irrelevant except for the fact that I've been playing approx one hand every two rounds for about an hour.

NickyOD

carfax wrote:

Yeah I did consider folding which is maybe why its bugging me but why do you prefer JTs hot & cold?

It plays better against the range of hands you will be called by, particularly a stronger Ace and middle pairs.

BigCityBanker

carfax wrote:

why do you prefer JTs

AX is a large part of any villians calling range - that X will most likely have your 8 dominated. J10 also give straight and flush possibilities. Im pretty sure you know this so im confused as to why your asking?

carfax

BigCityBanker wrote:

AX is a large part of any villians calling range - that X will most likely have your 8 dominated. J10 also give straight and flush possibilities. Im pretty sure you know this so im confused as to why your asking?

A8 is more often dominating Ax than it is being dominated.

JT can often be dominated by for example QT, KT, JQ, JK, as is behind any Ace and any pair.

I'm simply talking about the maths side of things and it doesn't add up when we're talking hot & cold......

I know I don't normally post when it concerns theory as I'm leaving myself out there to be laughed at but if you do the maths it works out.

robinlacey

carfax wrote:

A8 is more often dominating Ax than it is being dominated.
.

actually there are six dominated and six dominating aces.but even ignoring that Ax's in general are a very different group than the smaller subset of Ax's that will call you in this spot.its the second group that matters.


i don't actually know whether A8 or JTs performs better against various calling ranges here,has anyone ran the numbers on this?
i'd imagine its fairly close

rag2gar

How many runners where there in this, a lot i presume. Well played stephen.

Is there any cheap sats into this event on during the day does anybody know of? Looking to make a deposit with mansion to play this tourney in particular...

CoolBoardr

rag2gar wrote:

How many runners where there in this, a lot i presume. Well played stephen.

Is there any cheap sats into this event on during the day does anybody know of? Looking to make a deposit with mansion to play this tourney in particular...

It usually gets around 450 - 550 runners (the 12pm tournament gets less runners than the 9pm). There are $10 and $20 satellites that run a couple of days before the tournament up until the start. Play the earlier satellites cos they usually only get 10-15 runners with 2 seats guaranteed and are super fishy.

I have no idea how mansion are making money... the overlays on all tournaments (incl. satellites) are huge.

Moneymaker

Easy shove. You need that 8k with your stack.

NeoSlicerZ

I shove, but expect to be pretty far behind if I get looked up

Washout

CoolBoardr wrote:

It usually gets around 450 - 550 runners (the 12pm tournament gets less runners than the 9pm). There are $10 and $20 satellites that run a couple of days before the tournament up until the start. Play the earlier satellites cos they usually only get 10-15 runners with 2 seats guaranteed and are super fishy.

I have no idea how mansion are making money... the overlays on all tournaments (incl. satellites) are huge.

Ive heard rumours that they are going to shift over to ipoker platform probably the end of this month. thats hear say though but there going to have to do something drastic to change their fortunes around and moving to ipoker now may be too little too late for them

BigCityBanker

carfax wrote:

A8 is more often dominating Ax than it is being dominated.

I dont agree - I never expect a villian to look me up in this spot with AX where X<7

Tar.Aldarion

If you shove and get called, you are out. I fold a lot here but I is tight. Depends on teh players styles that is left.
I would also much prefer 910s compared to j10s.

luckylucky

BigCityBanker wrote:

I dont agree - I never expect a villian to look me up in this spot with AX where X<7

I'll second that, only a clown is going to call you with AX with lower than 7, course there are idiots who will do this, but I'm sure most of them are out of the tourney at that point

carfax wrote:

JT can often be dominated by for example QT, KT, JQ, JK, as is behind any Ace and any pair.

Again it's unlikely you are going to get called by these type of hands, that's why JT does better than A8 imo against the range you might get called with.

For what it's worth I know A8 is taken as a standard push here, but anytime I push I always seem to come a cropper in those spots.

It'd be interesting to have a discussion on what people think are the minimum requirements to push in different positions when they have between 8 and 10 BB left.

carfax

BigCityBanker wrote:

I dont agree - I never expect a villian to look me up in this spot with AX where X<7

I don't expect it myself of course, I think I misunderstood your point and was talking just on the maths side of things.....

My real argument for A-8 over JT is that you are rarely in terrible shape with A-8.......In reality - bearing in mind that everyone else is stacked and you are not therefore they can wait for better opportunities - a lot of the calls you are getting will be with big pairs (tens to aces - its shorthanded so lets just call all these big pairs) or A-K, probably A-Q and maybe even A-J.

With JT you are a completely flutered against the majority of these hands. With A-8 you have 5 chances to catch three outs most of the time.

If you want to run your JTs against my A-8o I'll take that bet every time but as far as getting your chips in and having no more control over the pot my thinking is very much in favour of A-8 not because there is a huge difference in your winning chances but because you have a slightly better chance but a better chance none the less with A-8.

My thinking would not necessarily be the same on this in a cash game but for the late stages of a tournament when shortstacked and getting fantastic value on the bet absof*******lutely.

Just to run some quick maths;
Lets say for arguments sake;
Scenario 1). 50% of the time no call.
Scenario 2). 45% of the time a call with A-K, A-Q or 8's up to kings
Scenario 3). 5% of the time run into aces.

1). - Pick up 7,400 for a 30,000 bet and move ourselves up the prize-money significantly.
2). - We lose 30,000 three times out of four (and cash for a clear profit from the tournament), however, we pick up a pot of up to 67,400 every one in four and put ourselves in a much more commanding position.....
3). - We're flutered.....but we still win one in about 12 and pick up 67,400.

This equates to approximately 61% of the time we win a nice pot as opposed to 39% of the time we don't....And 11% of the 61% we move up in way that will probably guarantee us a final table place and make more than double our current prize-money a guarantee.

Now I do realise that there is no basis for the percentages shown but by my figuring we get a call less than 50% of the time, the rest is just for arguments sake....With JT in all of the above situations our chances of success are signifanctly reduced although it is still probably a profitable push.

carfax

luckylucky wrote:

It'd be interesting to have a discussion on what people think are the minimum requirements to push in different positions when they have between 8 and 10 BB left.

That was one of the reasons for the post alright, I seem to be on my own a bit with the argument for A-8 over JT but I'm happy to stick with it......I also much prefer to re-raise someone with rags with a raise into my big blind when close to ten BB left but hate the open push move with less than ten BB.

aidankk

having played with you only twice i think in the past, if your image on this table is anything like what is thought it was, im folding almost any hand like a little girl to your steal, Apart from maybe top 3-4 hands.. Id say most reasonable players would do the same...

Well played , what is the buyin for this tourney??

carfax

rag2gar wrote:

How many runners where there in this, a lot i presume. Well played stephen.

Is there any cheap sats into this event on during the day does anybody know of? Looking to make a deposit with mansion to play this tourney in particular...

Cheers Gary,

About 580 runners last night.....Its my fifth or sixth time to play the tournament and I would definitely recommend it as any cash you get is virtually double what it should be......

Loads of sats but not many players at all from what I've seen other than this tournament.....bohsman was telling me that Mansion are one of the biggest online casinos but I don't care how big you are if you give away $50,000 - $70,000 a day for long enough you will go broke......It just goes to show how much these sites make......(I know I'm an affiliate for Mermaid now but I wouldn't argue if all the sites got together and agreed a max 5% reg fee on all tournaments, if there was a proper players federation like the WPA I'm sure enough pressure could be put on by players to see this happen.......Even some bricks and mortar casinos have this 5% as a rule).

carfax

aidankk wrote:

having played with you only twice i think in the past, if your image on this table is anything like what is thought it was, im folding almost any hand like a little girl to your steal, Apart from maybe top 3-4 hands.. Id say most reasonable players would do the same...

Well played , what is the buyin for this tourney??

$100, so you're saying you're a reasonable player Aidan???
Is that reasonable in the sense that you think there is a reason we all play poker???

dannydiamond

this is a fold for me stephen,i'd much rather be pushing with 56,j10 etc from this spot for the old getting called by a bigger ace chestnut....what do you think of this?

aidankk

carfax wrote:

$100, so you're saying you're a reasonable player Aidan???
Is that reasonable in the sense that you think there is a reason we all play poker???

I play for the crack mostly, and play very few decent tourneys so more than likely i dont know what im doing....., i must have been asleep reading this tread, but i was talking about LIVE poker , Online 90% of the players have no idea of your image at the table... Which means a huge range of calling hands for some players. Probably prefer a-8 than jt tough in this spot, BUT both will do for me in position with 10bb or less.. The amount of times youll get called by kj or A4 in the BB if he has a Stack makes it worthwhile id say..

but then again what would i know...

carfax

dannydiamond wrote:

this is a fold for me stephen,i'd much rather be pushing with 56,j10 etc from this spot for the old getting called by a bigger ace chestnut....what do you think of this?

Hi Danny,

Yeah I wanted to hear the likes of your opinion on this because as I said I did carefully consider folding.......I would still defo prefer the A-8 though as I believe it is more profitable (if only slightly) than the old sooted connector......

Again this is tournament play I'm talking about here and although I don't play cash at all my thinking would probably be v different there.

What do you think of that pal?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

carfax

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I shove here every time. I also believe that the impression people have of shoving with a hand like J10 and 56 being better etc is very wrong. I can't run the numbers on it in work though...

I find that Sikes and Lenny Leonard are generally excellent on this sort of question and I think you should PM them Ste and ask them to take a look at the thread.

Yeah I've seen the kind of numbers they run but I'm in work too, I think it will be an interesting read when they do post though.....

This is really probably one of those situations where whatever you do is probably right because tournament skills come into play much more in these situations as much as knowledge about running hands hot & cold.

Tar.Aldarion

I only think suited connectors are better if you are playing good players. Their range is tighter, so a hand like 910s might be a bit better, as it wouldn't be dominated by a call, whereas if you are called by a looser player A8 would be better. That's my odd, maybe not correct, thoughts on it.

RoundTower

I think this is a clear push, most of the time you win the pot which is pretty big already. I also slightly prefer A8o here. Good resource to do the maths is at http://www.propokertools.com/.

carfax

RoundTower wrote:

I think this is a clear push, most of the time you win the pot which is pretty big already. I also slightly prefer A8o here. Good resource to do the maths is at http://www.propokertools.com/.

Nice one Dave, I just set up a username there now.....Will check it out.

Agreed about only slightly prefering the A-8.....I think a push with any starting hand is profitable......All in all I suppose it was a pretty pointless OP

C4Queen

rag2gar wrote:

How many runners where there in this, a lot i presume. Well played stephen.

Is there any cheap sats into this event on during the day does anybody know of? Looking to make a deposit with mansion to play this tourney in particular...

Lol, yea good you want to play that one in particular LOOL, since its actually the only tourney they got ...and cash games are very few players also... one wonder really how long they can keep it up, spoke to their manager a while ago and he just smiled me asking that.

Nice tourney tough, been in the money a few times but havent played it for long, maybe its time again...

c y
anna

NickyOD

carfax wrote:

A8 is more often dominating Ax than it is being dominated.

JT can often be dominated by for example QT, KT, JQ, JK, as is behind any Ace and any pair.

I'm simply talking about the maths side of things and it doesn't add up when we're talking hot & cold......

If you're going to talk about the math then you should at least include a realistic calling range for your oponents at this stage of the tournament.

Since no one actually bothered to do the math I'll do the honours.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.396% 38.96% 00.43% 96071791 1068742.50 { JdTd }
Hand 1: 60.604% 60.17% 00.43% 148362500 1068742.50 { 22+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.207% 33.77% 01.44% 943562664 40277658.00 { A8o }
Hand 1: 64.793% 63.35% 01.44% 1770362148 40277658.00 { 22+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

carfax

NickyOD wrote:

If you're going to talk about the math

What high school did you graduate from?:p

NickyOD

carfax wrote:

What high school did you graduate from?:p

a good one.

from dictionary.com.

Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) - Cite This Source
math1 /mæθ/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[math]
–noun
mathematics.
[Origin: shortened form]

fl&sh

hi steve,let me ask you this.if the money step had burst ie.there was 18 left would you have asked the same question.me,i'm pushing in this spot and if you did,your most likely going to be behind in the hand if you get called,if it gets through,great at least you tried.the jump in money even though it's only $250 must have to been a factor for you to have asked this.if your playing to win,push.if your playing just to climb the money ladder,fold.:cool:

rag2gar

C4Queen wrote:

Lol, yea good you want to play that one in particular LOOL, since its actually the only tourney they got ...and cash games are very few players also... one wonder really how long they can keep it up, spoke to their manager a while ago and he just smiled me asking that.

Nice tourney tough, been in the money a few times but havent played it for long, maybe its time again...

c y
anna

How was I supposed to know that? LOL

No my fav site is actually called mermaidpoker... Dyou know it?

carfax

fl&sh wrote:

hi steve,let me ask you this.if the money step had burst ie.there was 18 left would you have asked the same question.me,i'm pushing in this spot and if you did,your most likely going to be behind in the hand if you get called,if it gets through,great at least you tried.the jump in money even though it's only $250 must have to been a factor for you to have asked this.if your playing to win,push.if your playing just to climb the money ladder,fold.:cool:

You hit the nail on the head there......The only reason I dwelt up a little on it was because of I wanted to consider just that, did I want to try to win it outright or climb up a little (the former won out).

C4Queen

rag2gar wrote:

How was I supposed to know that? LOL

No my fav site is actually called mermaidpoker... Dyou know it?

Mermaid , hmmmm....Narrrr just recentley heard about it

---

but i was told the mermiad of this month as pretty hot....what now THAT has to do with poker :rolleyes:

Mansion is ok for sure, but so weird they only have one tournament, i never understood that...

David Michael

C4Queen wrote:

Mermaid , hmmmm....Narrrr just recentley heard about it

---

but i was told the mermiad of this month as pretty hot....what now THAT has to do with poker :rolleyes:

Mansion is ok for sure, but so weird they only have one tournament, i never understood that...

Smaller tables would help. About 1/4 size.

careless about who has big tities etc.

C4Queen

David Michael wrote:

Smaller tables would help. About 1/4 size.

careless about who has big tities etc.

Yea couldnt agree more!

Resizable tables are coming.. been fighting for that for a while now.
Hopefully next upgrade.
Anna

robinlacey

i disagree with everyone saying you should never call with A2-7 here,im not saying i'd always do it but i certainly wouldn't rule it out

RoundTower

NickyOD wrote:

If you're going to talk about the math then you should at least include a realistic calling range for your oponents at this stage of the tournament.

Since no one actually bothered to do the math I'll do the honours.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.396% 38.96% 00.43% 96071791 1068742.50 { JdTd }
Hand 1: 60.604% 60.17% 00.43% 148362500 1068742.50 { 22+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.207% 33.77% 01.44% 943562664 40277658.00 { A8o }
Hand 1: 64.793% 63.35% 01.44% 1770362148 40277658.00 { 22+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

This is very lazy analysis (either that, or wilfully neglecting an important point in order to support your thesis). If you have A8o you get called a lot less often, you have one of the aces so there are less ways for your opponents to make calling hands.

Hitman Actual

robinlacey wrote:

i disagree with everyone saying you should never call with A2-7 here,im not saying i'd always do it but i certainly wouldn't rule it out

I agree, a big stack in the blinds can easily (and often correctly especially with the antes) find a call with any Ace against a late-position small-stack shove. If the shove is by someone as tight as carfax here, then it's probably not great, but generally I wouldn't rule it out.

I'm up to me bollix in work these days, so no time for maths. But with 7.5BBs, A8o looks like a push here. In saying that I doubt it's hugely profitable, $EV-wise. Having to get through four players isn't great either. Regarding the A8o-JTs thing, I would have thought both are in the same ballpark here, i.e. both marginal. If people are calling lighter, then I think A8 performs better but there's feck-all in it. If people are calling tighter, then you can push with a lot more hands anyway.