[articles] Turkey - Iraq is it all about to kick off?

mike65

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6737885.stm

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSCOL92154220070609

Right now its skermishes prompted by PKK units operating out of Kurdish Iraq (just the sort of thing Turkey had warned about in the aftermath of the US invasion) the army is building up its presence on the northern border while talks between Baghdad and Ankara are in the offing.

Hard to know what might happen here, one government thats barely in control of its own green zone and another thats determined in its pursuit of the PKK.

Mike.

MooseJam

I'd love to see the Turk's roll in all guns blazin and kick some PKK ass

Manic Moran

This is hardly the first cross-border incident by the Turks, though I think it's the first one since Saddam was removed. There've been a few over the last fifteen years or so, nothing major has come of them.

They've been saying the same for years about Turkey finally launching at attack on Greece. Hasn't happened outside of small skirmishes yet.

NTM

flogen

Manic Moran wrote:

This is hardly the first cross-border incident by the Turks, though I think it's the first one since Saddam was removed. There've been a few over the last fifteen years or so, nothing major has come of them.

They've been saying the same for years about Turkey finally launching at attack on Greece. Hasn't happened outside of small skirmishes yet.

NTM

Relations between Turkey and Greece have improving significantly since 1996 - Greece even supports Turkey's accession to the EU (and you can be sure that Turkey wouldn't be foolish enough to do anything serious to an EU nation while it's trying to join the union itself anyway).

The Iraq situation is completely different and it's over something bigger than a claim to some islands - Turkey knows that an independent Kurdish state in Northern Iraq would be a disaster for it and has made it quite clear that it's willing to do what it takes to, in its eyes, maintain Turkish unity.

You have to wonder what would happen re:Turkey under the various potential future scenarios of Iraq - the likes of full-scale civil war or the splitting of the country into factional statelets.

nesf

flogen wrote:

You have to wonder what would happen re:Turkey under the various potential future scenarios of Iraq - the likes of full-scale civil war or the splitting of the country into factional statelets.

A 21st century variation of Yugoslavia?

Manic Moran

flogen wrote:

Relations between Turkey and Greece have improving significantly since 1996 - Greece even supports Turkey's accession to the EU (and you can be sure that Turkey wouldn't be foolish enough to do anything serious to an EU nation while it's trying to join the union itself anyway).

They may have been improving, but troops and pilots from both sides are still dying from time to time.

In the meantime, Balkanalysis.com recently ran a report
http://www.balkanalysis.com/2007/04/22/greek-turkish-military-altercations-expected-as-cyprus-readies-for-offshore-oil-exploration/
saying that there is a good chance of a punchup this year. We're partway into the 'window' right now with no obvious sign of trouble, but that the issue is being considered is a signal that there is still a problem.

A major military face-off between perennial rivals Greece and Turkey is looming, motivated by Turkish alarm over the imminent plan of the Cypriot government to explore for oil in the Mediterranean Sea. The showdown will reach a peak sometime between May 20-July 20, according to Greek media reports, now confirmed by high-level sources in Athens and in Western Europe.

<snip>

According to information received by Balkanalysis.com from high-level military sources in Athens, the Greek army went on an emergency footing on April 7, in anticipation of a new Turkish provocation in the eastern Aegean.

<snip>

Relevant to this is another side effect of possible Turkish aggression, about which the Greek intelligence services are not entirely unaware. That is the specter, on the other side of the Turkish frontier, of an increase in activity from the Kurdish PKK and intensified activity on the Turkish-Iraqi border. Whether such activity could be orchestrated by Greece as a defensive mechanism, or materialize simply as a Kurdish tactic for taking advantage of a moment when Turkey’s military is looking westward rather than eastward, is unclear (Greece did, of course, support former PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan surreptitiously in the 1990’s). In either case, however, it is likely that in the case of violence in the Aegean within the May 20-July 20 time-frame, Kurdish insurgents will try to take advantage of the situation and fighting in eastern Turkey is expected to increase.

<snip>

NTM

bonkey

Manic Moran wrote:

This is hardly the first cross-border incident by the Turks, though I think it's the first one since Saddam was removed. There've been a few over the last fifteen years or so, nothing major has come of them.

You don't think the US presence will make any difference?

OK...prior to Saddam, there was the no-fly-zone, but thats still quite different to today's reality.

If the US (and other allies) stand back and allow Turkey to cross the border, guns blazing, surely they're going to only make life harder for themselves?

Manic Moran

It's certainly not going to help matters.

I'm just saying that people are acting like it's the start of Iraq War IV, when in fact it's nothing that hasn't gone on before.

NTM

flogen

nesf wrote:

A 21st century variation of Yugoslavia?

Quite possibly - especially if the Iraqi Kurds break away and form their own state - but I think Turkey would invade instantly as a "pre-emptive" measure. Of course that would probably make things even worse for Turkey in the long term (and not because it would piss the US or EU off)

@Manic Moran - not saying that the two countries are now on the best of terms, but things are a long way away from their worst. Not sure how reputable Balkanalysis.com is but that article you link to is just comment with no real information to back it up... the only facts in there are historical ones.

"The showdown will reach a peak sometime between May 20-July 20, according to Greek media reports, now confirmed by high-level sources in Athens and in Western Europe." - that sentence alone seems pretty bizarre to me - why would the "showdown" reach a peak in that time frame? There must be a reason!

Manic Moran

It explains in the article, but apparently it's got something to do with the Cypriot's process for the exploration rights.

NTM

Bad bad man

MooseJam wrote:

I'd love to see the Turk's roll in all guns blazin and kick some PKK ass

Have you always been a hatemongering type, or is it just Kurds that make you say bloodthirsty garbage? I am ethnically Armenian and grew up in Turkey. Unlike you, I know a lot of people who saw their whole families die at the hands of Turkish butality for the crime of being Christian.

I'd love to see a few Turks come into your hometown, rape your mother, cut your testicles off and burn your house.

Gee, that dosn't sound very friendly or nice, but since that behavior is okay with you so be it.

flogen

Manic Moran wrote:

It explains in the article, but apparently it's got something to do with the Cypriot's process for the exploration rights.

NTM

But it seems to be jumping to conclusions on that - the article basically says a showdown is imminent because two countries disagree with each other - it then makes some vague reference to Greek media and goes off on a tangent.

That would almost be like a media organisation saying that Britain and Ireland were heading for a showdown because of the Sellafield situation just because they disagree on it - you need to back it up with more than assumptions.

oscarBravo

Bad bad man wrote:

Have you always been a hatemongering type...?

I would have let that go with a stern warning, but this:

Bad bad man wrote:

I'd love to see a few Turks come into your hometown, rape your mother, cut your testicles off and burn your house.

...earned a week's ban.

luckat

Mmm, so Bad bad man is banned for a parody of the statment that MooseJam made, while MooseJam's vicious statement goes uncommented-on? Strange!

If Turkey joins the EU, then the US attacks Turkey, that'll put us in a juicy moral situation.

Personally, I'd like to see the Kurds having their own Kurdistan and being left alone by their neighbours. I'd also like to see people sort out differences by negotiation, not by bombing and shooting and burning homes.

wes

Bad bad man wrote:

Have you always been a hatemongering type, or is it just Kurds that make you say bloodthirsty garbage? I am ethnically Armenian and grew up in Turkey. Unlike you, I know a lot of people who saw their whole families die at the hands of Turkish butality for the crime of being Christian.

You do know the Kurds were involved in the Armenian genocide as well?

Also they specifically targeted the Armenians, because they were Armenian. Arab Christians were not targeted. It was the Ultra-nationalist racist young Turk movement who were less about religion and were basically fascists.

oscarBravo

luckat wrote:

Mmm, so Bad bad man is banned for a parody of the statment that MooseJam made, while MooseJam's vicious statement goes uncommented-on? Strange!

MooseJam didn't personally attack another poster. Also, I don't recall you reporting the "vicious statement" in question, so how come you suddenly have a problem with it now? Note: that was a rhetorical question. Back on topic.

luckat

I didn't report it because I didn't read it, but if you like I'll teleport back to the day when it was made and do so now, a h-Osc.

Back on topic - yes, the Kurds massacred the Armenians, quite true. Human history has been one long you kill us then we kill you then you kill them then they kill us. Time to stop now.

jonny72

oscarBravo wrote:

MooseJam didn't personally attack another poster. Also, I don't recall you reporting the "vicious statement" in question, so how come you suddenly have a problem with it now? Note: that was a rhetorical question. Back on topic.

Yeah but if he said Iranians instead of Turkish forces and if he had said Jews instead of PKK then he would have been banned for a month I am sure. Anyway I'm not gonna get involved.

oscarBravo

luckat wrote:

I didn't report it because I didn't read it, but if you like I'll teleport back to the day when it was made and do so now, a h-Osc.

Unfamiliar with the definition of "rhetorical question"?

jonny72 wrote:

Yeah but if he said Iranians instead of Turkish forces and if he had said Jews instead of PKK then he would have been banned for a month I am sure. Anyway I'm not gonna get involved.

You just did, and the next person to discuss moderation in this thread gets a month's ban.

Back. On. Topic.

Victor

bonkey wrote:

You don't think the US presence will make any difference?

There are few Americans in Kurdistan.

nacho libre

America won't let it escalate further. If the Turkish military had its way they would have invaded before now but the Turkish government won't sanction an invasion because of pressure from America.

RedPlanet

nacho libre wrote:

America won't let it escalate further. If the Turkish military had its way they would have invaded before now but the Turkish government won't sanction an invasion because of pressure from America.

Well, that would require Turkey to have faith in America keeping the PKK in check for them. I doubt that's a role America particularly wants to shoulder since they are ineffective everywhere else in iraq including Baghdad.
I doubt Turkey will invade, surely they'll just launch "surgical strikes" on "PKK positions" and "known militants" etc.

nacho libre

RedPlanet wrote:

Well, that would require Turkey to have faith in America keeping the PKK in check for them. I doubt that's a role America particularly wants to shoulder since they are ineffective everywhere else in iraq including Baghdad.
I doubt Turkey will invade, surely they'll just launch "surgical strikes" on "PKK positions" and "known militants" etc.

America issued a statement to Turkey several month ago telling them invading would be "unhelpful" and to "exercise restraint".
Turkey must have faith in America or fear the consequences of not listening to them as they would have launched a broad offensive against the PKK by now if this were not the case. Of course there desire to join the EU might be a factor in them not invading too.

gurramok

nacho libre wrote:

America issued a statement to Turkey several month ago telling them invading would be "unhelpful" and to "exercise restraint".
Turkey must have faith in America or fear the consequences of not listening to them as they would have launched a broad offensive against the PKK by now if this were not the case. Of course there desire to join the EU might be a factor in them not invading too.

Well, i think that the desire for joining the EU is gone, looks like Turkey has gone back to its old ways with reforms to stop brutality thrown out the window
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6751527.stm

RedPlanet

nacho libre wrote:

America issued a statement to Turkey several month ago telling them invading would be "unhelpful" and to "exercise restraint".
Turkey must have faith in America or fear the consequences of not listening to them as they would have launched a broad offensive against the PKK by now if this were not the case. Of course there desire to join the EU might be a factor in them not invading too.

Phraseology such as: "Unhelpful" doesn't sound too bad. "Exercise restraint" means GREEN LIGHT.
Like i said Turkey won't "invade", rather they'll probably just launch "surgical strikes".

lostexpectation

http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/mhkfidcwojsn/

Turkey has massed 140,000 soldiers on its border with northern Iraq but so far there have been no violations, Iraq’s foreign minister said today.

*gulp*

dathi1

with the recent attack on the Turkmen by Salifi Jihadists I'd say a major Turkish incursion is more likely on that basis alone never mind the PKK excuse.

jonny72

Ironically, based on the Iraq war, Turkey can invade Northern Iraq tomorrow and it will be completely 'justified'. I think however it will be the usual 'surgical strikes' on 'known militants' i.e. random shelling of weddings and large family dwellings.

Unpossible

Is Turkey not part of NATO ? If they want to go into Iraq then why don't they just join the coalition?

Victor

Unpossible wrote:

Is Turkey not part of NATO ? If they want to go into Iraq then why don't they just join the coalition?

The Kurds are part of the Coalition, the Turks want to bash the Kurds ....

jmayo

luckat wrote:

Mmm, so Bad bad man is banned for a parody of the statment that MooseJam made, while MooseJam's vicious statement goes uncommented-on? Strange!

But Armenians always get screwed, just look at Clintons push to get Turkey to apologise for the genocide of Armenians. He backed down when Turkey started hinting US troops would not be safe in Turkey.
As usual who got screwed but the Armenians.

luckat wrote:

If Turkey joins the EU, then the US attacks Turkey, that'll put us in a juicy moral situation.

US will not attack their ally where they have air bases etc.
Turkey joins EU and there goes another flying pig.
Only certain policiticos, including the Germans who have large Turkish population, want Turkey in.
I'll bet if you did a poll you would find most citizens of the EU would not want to see Turkey join the EU.
Why not let Israel in as well?
After all they are also in Eurovision song contest and UEFA soccer competitions as well.

luckat wrote:

Personally, I'd like to see the Kurds having their own Kurdistan and being left alone by their neighbours. I'd also like to see people sort out differences by negotiation, not by bombing and shooting and burning homes.

Turkey will not stand for it so US will not allow it. UK will meekly follow US.
France would agree if it meant they sold more weapons otherwise no.

Is the Kurdish area of Iraq not the most peaceful, well in relative terms anyway?
Has the US, like their old British allies, promised the Kurds something in return for towing the line?

If the Turks start wandering around, then you get all hell breaking loose and that is the last thing the US needs.

Did anybody catch the US general making comments that the Iraq situation was like Northern Ireland and would take decades to resolve?
JKust what Dubba wanted to hear.

jonny72

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/07/18/ap/world/main3071008.shtml?source=RSS&attr=_3071008

Strange how we gauge the seriousness of a situation ONLY based on the media response..