standard push?

nicnicnic

Macau €1500 buy in 17 players left probably chip leader with 145k, raise from utg with AdKd to 10.5k blinds are 3000/1500 with ante of 300.

after a bit of banter from mid position player with 75k min raised to 22k. player seemed in a bit of conflict as what to do. haven't played with long enough to know game but confident from whats gone on that I'm not looking at AA KK. my thinking is QQ 60% jj 20 % AK 20 %. is this a standard push

Flushdraw

If thats what you put him on, then i'm pushing here Nicky. You have a lot of FE and if you add another 75k to your stack, you could almost see the lights up ahead!

dacman

Min raise is odd but id definetly give him the decision. PUSH

bops

due to recent bad results with AK :rolleyes: , i'd be more inclined to peel off a flop oop - if you hit the A or K check raise - if not, just get away from it relatively cheaply

you are 80% sure that he has JJ/QQ so he isn't laying it down PF probably - he has 75k which will put a fair dent into your stack if you miss and you will half the time

i'm sure that that overplaying AK is probably one of the biggest leaks in poker - then again the key to winning tourneys is aggression so in summary

i couldn't make it down unfortunately, i hope ya all had a good time

valor

i def shove

mdwexford

his min raise is terrible with any if the 3 hands you've put him on, ugh

insta-shove but id expect a call

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

mewso

Well the FE here appears to be close to zero so I don't see the point in discussing the pre-flop strength of AK in this particular hand. I think it's a simple case of whether you want to race or not. Marginal if you ask me. Push to hit 6 outs or fold to keep chip lead over table and find a better spot or just call and see the flop. This is all based on your read being accurate.

bops

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Bops - I strongly disagree with that logic. The strength of AKs is pre - flop. When you play it you want to maximise any possible FE pre - flop and make sure that you see five cards when called. Playing hit or fold on a flop is always awful.

Nicky, if your read and info on player says that his range is wide enough not to be worrying about AA or KK then this is a really standard shove. And irrespective of results you should feel good about it.

i understand that nicky is getting more than enough odds here to call and race, but that isn't his question i believe, his question is imo "should i take a race for half of my very big stack" or not? - it's basically the same as calling an allin with 22 knowing that your opponent has 2 overcards

your notion of the strenght of ak being PF has is not applicable here imo, he's not pushing here to get yerman to fold, he's pushing for a race - so forget about fold equity coz imo there isn't any.

so Lloyd, like most good aggressive poker players thinks you should be happy racing here, you're getting +EV . I personally think there's more to it than that - simple as that.

Lloyd, you'll like this one! - you seem to laugh at detailed "reads" etc - how about this one? - i'd call here if i feel like i am going to hit!!

phantom_lord

definitely shoving here.

nicnicnic

yeh I instashoved I thought there was in fact a chance he would fold but called pretty quickly with QQ which were good. the fact that two diamonds on the flop meant that's the chip's would of went anyhow had I just called but tbh I dont call there very often

The_Chopper

If you put the guy on a big pair (not AA or KK) and think he can fold the rest then i like a shove. However if you know this guy will call with QQ/JJ and you'll be racing for your tournament then i may do a number of things personally. Even if you called all your money is going in on the flop. Just one of those stupid things in poker mate

Duff Man Jr.

At the time with the min raise and the bit of a speach he gave before he raised it looked he had jacks and was saying i'll fold to a push, I think that might have been his oringnal plan but he had one of those aahh fcuk it moments and called.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Ste05

LuckyLloyd wrote:

As, in my experience, when most people talk of "reads" they speak without dealing with hand - ranges and betting patterns as their means of deducing what the other guy had. Having a "feeling" about it probably means they are full of sh!t.

As Lloyd says, all that matters is hand ranges and patterns, everything else is sh1te. This is a completely standard push nic. You are +EV versus his range and that's all that matters.

mewso

How is this so standard against a range that 80% of the time has you as a 57/43 dog, 20% of the time no change? I think this is very marginal. 43% of the time you eliminate a player, go up the prize ranks and increase your chances of the outright win. This pushes it into 50/50 territory for me. I wouldn't argue with a fold or a push here.

The_Chopper

musician wrote:

How is this so standard against a range that 80% of the time has you as a 57/43 dog, 20% of the time no change? I think this is very marginal. 43% of the time you eliminate a player, go up the prize ranks and increase your chances of the outright win. This pushes it into 50/50 territory for me. I wouldn't argue with a fold or a push here.

Totally agree with this. I think some people are just not capable of folding AK preflop (not you nicky)

phantom_lord

ak is the nuts!

mdwexford

143,833,536 games 0.005 secs 28,766,707,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.429% 29.23% 19.20% 42048264 27609036.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 51.571% 32.38% 19.20% 46567200 27609036.00 { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }