Disappointment Hedging Strategy: Lay Your Bets!

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

Just thought i'd post to give my strategy for dealing with electoral disappointment. Think it particularly works for people who are reasonably agnostic towards the results, but have a slight preference for one coalition.

Basically, i'd have a slight preference to a FF coalition. Realistically, although its not my preferred option, this will be a FF/Lab coalition. The only genuinely realistic other option is FG/Lab/Green, which i don't particularly want to see.

Given that Paddypower etc offer betting on the coalition to be in power (they exclude independent TDs), i've put €100 on FG/Lab/Green at odds 5/2. My thinking is that the return on this bet of €350 will address any mild disappointment at FG/Lab/Green being in government. Therefore, i can't lose on Thursday!

What do you think? How much would you have to bet on the 'other coalition' to be satisfied no-matter-what on Thursday? It's a useful exercise in determining how strong your political convictions are!

cm2000

Roundtower2 wrote:

. Therefore, i can't lose on Thursday!

i disagree.youcould end up with ff/green or ff/green/pd. if fianna fail get a good return and labour dont see a coalition with ff as a good option these are likey.personally i've a few quid on each at excellent odd thankks to a rather naive english ladbrooks.

Ardent

A 250 euro profit would dull the pain of having the government you don't want in office for 5 years??

I don't think any amount of money would quell my disappointment if Fianna Fail got back in...

Our man in Havana

Ardent wrote:

A 250 euro profit would dull the pain of having the government you don't want in office for 5 years??

I don't think any amount of money would quell my disappointment if Fianna Fail got back in...

QFT!

Only a large euromillions win would come close.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

Ardent wrote:

A 250 euro profit would dull the pain of having the government you don't want in office for 5 years??

I don't think any amount of money would quell my disappointment if Fianna Fail got back in...

Some amount of money would 'dull the pain' for the vast majority of voters. There really isn't that much difference between the promises of all the parties.

Are you seriously saying that if someone said - here's €10,000, but FF will be in power - that you wouldn't say 'yes'? Seriously?

Surely that would make more of a difference to your life, than which politicians are in power?

Obviously, my convictions/disposable income are a bit shallower, so €250 is probably enough for me!

Gobán Saor

Well I reckon if the Greens get in, it will cost the average taxpayer far more than €250 in extra "environmental" taxes. Plus hours of delays and petrol burned on our substandard road network given their antagonism to motorways.

Our man in Havana

If only there was a Jeremy Clarkson party to vote for.

little miss

Well, if a change of government is going to happen you might as well gain from it! And its not like placing the bet makes a difference to the actual result. I'm even tempted to do this - would certainly liven up the election!

stepbar

FF/LAB 9-4 5-2 2-1 9 - 4 2nd
FF/Green 4-1 9-2 7-2 3 - 1
FG/LAB/Green 2-1 9-4 5-2 3 - 1 1st
FF/PDs 6-1 7-1 5-1 4 - 1
FF/PD/Greens 14-1 12-1 10-1 9 - 1 3rd
FF/SF 9-1 10-1 8-1 9 - 1
FG/LAB 6-1 8-1 12-1 14 - 1
FF on their own (Min or Maj') 16-1 20-1 25-1 20 - 1
FF/Lab/Green 20-1 25 - 1 4th
FF/FG 16-1 22-1 25 - 1
FG/Lab/PDs 33-1 40 - 1


Personally I think that the options highlighted all have a good chance of getting into Government.

stepbar

3-1 for FG/Lab/Green is very good odds TBH