Number of Seats Prediction

gbh

Ok, so here is my prediction for the state of the parties after Election 2007.

FF - 65
FG - 50
Labour - 25
Green - 9
Sinn Fein - 8
PDs - 2
Socialist Worker Party - 1
Independents - 6



Feel free to add your predictions below...hope this is ok with the mods!

ladylorenzo

gbh wrote:

Ok, so here is my prediction for the state of the parties after Election 2007.

FF - 65
FG - 50
Labour - 25
Green - 9
Sinn Fein - 8
PDs - 2
Socialist Worker Party - 1
Independents - 6



Feel free to add your predictions below...hope this is ok with the mods!

Dunno if i'd feel confident prediciting exact numbers but in my opinion, I think you have over-estimated Labour and under-estimated FF in you predictions. How conveninet though....FG/Lab/Greens..exactly 84 seats. Only time will tell!

The thinking in FF is that 67 is a minimum. And that's losing the marginals. If the momentum is in our favour, as the polls suggest, then it will be a few more. Think it will be 69 myself, being a pessimist.

PH01

gbh wrote:

Ok, so here is my prediction for the state of the parties after Election 2007.

FF - 65
FG - 50
Labour - 25
Green - 9
Sinn Fein - 8
PDs - 2
Socialist Worker Party - 1
Independents - 6



Feel free to add your predictions below...hope this is ok with the mods!

Would you be up to giving a constituency breakdown as to where all these seats?

My Prediction ()
FF - 74
FG - 42
LAB - 20
Green - 9
SF - 10
PD - 4
Others - 7


And possible governments (in bold)
FF & PD = 78
FF, PD & Ind (ff) = 81
FF, PD & Ind (ff+n) = 81
FF, PD & Ind (All) = 85
FF & Ind (ff) = 77
FF & Ind (ff+n) = 77
FF & Ind (All) = 81
FF & LAB = 94
FF & SF = 84
FF & GR = 83
FG & LAB 62
FG, LAB and Ind(fg) = 66
FG, LAB and Ind(fg + n) = 66
FG & LAB & GR = 71
FG, LAB, GR and Ind(fg) = 75
FG, LAB, GR and Ind(fg+n) = 75
FG, LAB, GR and Ind(All) = 78

Lennoxschips

FF 63
FG 51
Labour 21
Green 11
SF 10
PD 3
SWP 1
Ind 6

Jonny Arson

With all the changing polls now I don't have a clue how it's going to pan out

If I was to give a rough guess of where the parties will fall

FF (64-72)
FG (47-54)
Lab (18-22)
GP (7-10)
SF (8-10)
PD (2-5)
SP (2)
Ind/Others (4-7)

In summary FF will lose seats, FG will gain seats, Labour will remain somewhat static but may lose seats to FG, Greens will gain a couple as will Sinn Féin and the PDs will lose seats. How many of each? Its impossible to predict

Voipjunkie

FF - 70
FG - 45
Labour - 20
Green - 8
Sinn Fein - 10
PDs - 3
Socialist Party - 2
Independents - 8

Money Shot

Voipjunkie wrote:

FF - 70
FG - 45
Labour - 20
Green - 8
Sinn Fein - 10
PDs - 3
Socialist Worker Party - 2
Independents - 8

Howdy, just curious as to the other socialist workers party seat - who do you have in mind ? It's likely even Higgins will struggle in Dublin west. Apparently, Brian Lenihan is assured of his seat for some reason (will never understand that one), and then Joan Burton and Leo Vadakar have ran very effective campaigns and seem to have a lot of support in the area. I think Higgins could loose out here - even if he deserves a seat much more than Brian Lenihan does...

Jonny Arson

Money Shot wrote:

Howdy, just curious as to the other socialist workers party seat - who do you have in mind ? It's likely even Higgins will struggle in Dublin west. Apparently, Brian Lenihan is assured of his seat for some reason (will never understand that one), and then Joan Burton and Leo Vadakar have ran very effective campaigns and seem to have a lot of support in the area. I think Higgins could loose out here - even if he deserves a seat much more than Brian Lenihan does...

I know I saw some figures somewhere indicating Lenihan and Higgins having very strong percentages which should translate into seats and Burton and Varadakar neck and neck for the final seat.

Sorry to be somewhat pedantic but the Socialist Workers Party I think are campaiging under the People Before Profit banner and Socialist Party are as they were. I don't think PBP will win any seats.

Jonny Arson

Jonny Arson wrote:

Burton and Varadakar neck and neck for the final seat.

Saw a few predictions confirming this and suggesting she is one of the highest profile candidates in trouble.

cm2000

im from dublin west and i think it will be lenihan definitely and most likely varadker and higgins with burton losing out. it's a general feeling out here. higgins has alot fo support from poorer areas predominantly, lenihan-well hes just not ever going to lose his imo and will top the poll no doubt, and newcomer varadker has run an exceptional campaign and will pull in alot of the vote, could even come in second.

ateam

Deleted User wrote:

Saw a few predictions confirming this and suggesting she is one of the highest profile candidates in trouble.

She does seem to be in trouble, she did do a lot for commuters using the trains, so she might get votes there. If the voting pact with Fine Gael goes right, Joe Higgins could be in trouble. Yesterdays Irish Independent suggested that there could be a surprise and Joe will lose his seat. All hinges on transfers. Joe has nothing to show for 10 years in the Dail apart from criticising everyone in it and his core voters haven't been fooled.

cm2000

ateam wrote:

She does seem to be in trouble, she did do a lot for commuters using the trains, so she might get votes there. If the voting pact with Fine Gael goes right, Joe Higgins could be in trouble. Yesterdays Irish Independent suggested that there could be a surprise and Joe will lose his seat. All hinges on transfers. Joe has nothing to show for 10 years in the Dail apart from criticising everyone in it and his core voters haven't been fooled.

i doubt that. his core voters can see no wrong in joe.

ateam

cm2000 wrote:

i doubt that. his core voters can see no wrong in joe.

He does have a core vote no matter what, but I do think his first preference vote will be down on last time.

Gobán Saor

gbh wrote:

......
Socialist Worker Party - 1
.............

Not since the People's Front of Judea locked horns with the Judean People's Front has such offence (totally inadvertently, I'm sure:D ) been caused among our hard left brethern (and sistern)! Joe Higgins is a member of the Socialist Party. He will probably be joined in the next Dail by Claire Daly in Dublin North who also had the benefit of a spell in Mountjoy to enhance her street cred. The Socialist Workers Party is a different lot altogether - Richard Boyd Barrett and company. For some strange reason, they're running under the People Before Profit Alliance banner in this election - SWP policy is to form "front" organisations - don't ask me why?

Both are hardline trotskyist organisations and, needless to say, they can't stand each other:D

gbh

Gob&#225 wrote: »

Not since the People's Front of Judea locked horns with the Judean People's Front has such offence (totally inadvertently, I'm sure:D ) been caused among our hard left brethern (and sistern)! Joe Higgins is a member of the Socialist Party. He will probably be joined in the next Dail by Claire Daly in Dublin North who also had the benefit of a spell in Mountjoy to enhance her street cred. The Socialist Workers Party is a different lot altogether - Richard Boyd Barrett and company. For some strange reason, they're running under the People Before Profit Alliance banner in this election - SWP policy is to form "front" organisations - don't ask me why?

Both are hardline trotskyist organisations and, needless to say, they can't stand each other:D

Fair point...apologies to both parties...


FF - 65
FG - 50
Labour - 25
Green - 9
Sinn Fein - 8
PDs - 2
Socialist Party - 1
Independents - 6

PH01

So here's my new prediction.
FF - 91
FG - 46
Lab - 12
PDs - 5
Green - 4
SF - 3
Others - 4

Lennoxschips

ateam wrote:

She does seem to be in trouble, she did do a lot for commuters using the trains, so she might get votes there. If the voting pact with Fine Gael goes right, Joe Higgins could be in trouble. Yesterdays Irish Independent suggested that there could be a surprise and Joe will lose his seat. All hinges on transfers. Joe has nothing to show for 10 years in the Dail apart from criticising everyone in it and his core voters haven't been fooled.

that's more than 165 other tds have achieved

cm2000

PH01 wrote:

So here's my new prediction.
FF - 91
FG - 46
Lab - 12
PDs - 5
Green - 4
SF - 3
Others - 4

91- really?????????????????????
green with only 5?????????
i'd love it if it happened but get real

PH01

cm2000 wrote:

91- really?????????????????????
green with only 5?????????
i'd love it if it happened but get real

It could happen
The trends are with FF now so you never know.

cm2000

a trend is one thing but ff optimism should stop at about 80-82 i think. and labour will get more than 12 no doubt

Pherekydes

PH01 wrote:

FF - 91
FG - 46
Lab - 12
PDs - 5
Green - 4
SF - 3
Others - 4

Funniest post on the whole of Boards in a long time! On so many levels.

FF 91? Absolutely no way.

SF 3 and PD 5? Haha. Not a snowball's.

I haven't been following the minutiae of all the constituencies, so I can't make a solid prediction, but if FF get more than 70 I'll be very disappointed. Likewise, if the PDs get more than 2 or 3.

If the current government gets more than 72 or 73 seats based on their record in Govt then a lot of people need their heads examined. If the electorate are hoodwinked by Bertie's bluster or Michael's rhetoric or Mary's scaremongering then we truly deserve what we get for another 5 years.

Badabing

FF- 75
FG- 45
LAB- 20
Greens- 8
Sinn Fein- 9
PD'S- 4
Others-4

According to Noel Whelan and Ivan Yeats Cork noth west and Dublin south central will be vital if there is to be a rainbow goverment.

McSandwich

FF - 63
FG- 55
LP- 21
GP - 9
SF - 8
PD - 2
Other - 8

Voipjunkie

Money Shot wrote:

Howdy, just curious as to the other socialist workers party seat - who do you have in mind ? It's likely even Higgins will struggle in Dublin west. Apparently, Brian Lenihan is assured of his seat for some reason (will never understand that one), and then Joan Burton and Leo Vadakar have ran very effective campaigns and seem to have a lot of support in the area. I think Higgins could loose out here - even if he deserves a seat much more than Brian Lenihan does...

Sorry it should have said Socialist party being a lazy ****er I copied and pasted the OP list and changed the figures

The second SP seat is Clare Daly Dublin North

She polled over 5000 last time out and since then she has been in the joy and the Government has broken up Aer Rianta and sold Aer lingus where she is a shop steward
On top of that Glennon and GV are not standing again so she must be in with a shout at the very least.

Gobán Saor

FF - 72
FG - 45
Lab - 20
SF - 11
Green - 9
Socialist - 2
PD - 1
Others - 5 (inc 3 FF 'gene pool')

Possible outcomes
FF/FG
FF/Lab
FF/SF
FF/Green
FF minority

Gob&#225

Gob&#225 wrote: »

FF/FG

The dream ticket.

Just wish they could knock heads together and see it too.

Gobán Saor

Deleted User wrote:

The dream ticket.

Just wish they could knock heads together and see it too.

Well, if Rabbitte won't and SF can't and the Greens would do your head in, and FG won't take the responsibility without the power, might we be left with no other alternative?

Voipjunkie

Gob&#225 wrote: »

Well, if Rabbitte won't and SF can't and the Greens would do your head in, and FG won't take the responsibility without the power, might we be left with no other alternative?

That would make me happy as well at last we could get rid of one of them and do away with the nonesense of 2 identical parties being in opposition to each other. How much more exciting would the leaders debate have been with Rabbite vs Ahern or Rabbite Vs Kenny or Rabbite vs Cowen like last night I could probably stay awake for that

dereko1969

FF - 70
FG - 50
LAB - 20
Greens - 8
SF - 9
PD - 3
SP - 2
Oth - 4

highlight100

FF - 73
FG - 44
LAB - 29
Green - 9
SF - 8
PD - 4
SOC - 1
Others - 8

mike65

twill be roughly

FF 70
FG 52
Labour 20
Greens 7
SF 8
PD 2
Socialists 1
Others 6

Mike.

Zaphod

Gob&#225 wrote: »

Possible outcomes
FF/FG
FF/Lab
FF/SF
FF/Green
FF minority

Or an inter-party combination of FG/Lab/GP/SF.

PH01

mike65 wrote:

twill be roughly

FF 70
FG 52
Labour 20
Greens 7
SF 8
PD 2
Socialists 1
Others 6

Mike.

That looks pretty close

KevIRL

PH01 wrote:

That looks pretty close

FF too low, according to current predictions, more likely to be closer to 75/76

aidan24326

Current predictions are puting FF in the high 70's, with FG around the 50 mark. A Fianna Fail/Fine Gael coalition is a non-runner. Won't happen.

mike65

Bump. so how did you do?

mike65 wrote:

twill be roughly

FF 70
FG 52
Labour 20
Greens 7
SF 8
PD 2
Socialists 1
Others 6

Mike.

Mike.

LordSutch

Gob&#225 wrote: »

FF - 72
FG - 45
Lab - 20
SF - 11
Green - 9
Socialist - 2
PD - 1
Others - 5 (inc 3 FF 'gene pool')

Possible outcomes
FF/FG
FF/Lab
FF/SF
FF/Green
FF minority

That was optimistic..............