waterford open hand

Norwich Fan Rob

having been playing for about 3 hours short handed to get from 11 to 9 players, the final table had just formed and we were 9 handed again.
prizes ranged from 3k for 9th to 26k for the win.

im playing 240k, in 7th place, a couple of shorties, 3 big stacks, but not much diff between 4th and 7th in chips.

eddie walsh a solid player, open raises to 50k from utg+1 (blinds 8/15k, std raise), eddie is playing a stack of 270k.

John D Ward, calls on the button, he has a HUGE range for doing this, including any 2 picture cards and more.

Im on the BB........there is 130k in the middle, i am holding TT.

The choices are as follows:

Pass and leave give Eddies early pos raise a lot of respect.

Call and re evaluate on a low flop.

Or Jam, and try and pick up 130k uncontested, and increase my stack to about 370k. (im confident John doesnt have a better hand than me here, and will most likely fold), (i think eddie will pass JJ or probably AK to my push)

I would have a very solid image.

Folding is out of the question to be honest imo, its only 35k to call, and i would have set odds given the stacks and whats already in the middle, even if i am sure i am behind currently.

So, basically, do we think its better to call or push.

LuckyLloyd

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charlesanto

push or fold,
TT isn't goooot in a 3 way pot !!!

Hectorjelly

Push, hes mad if he folds AK here though.

ocallagh

I don't know eddie walsh. What is his range UTG+1? Does it include smaller pairs 77+ and AJ etc? Against some players I call for a set, but against most I would push here.

Norwich Fan Rob

i know eddie, nice fella, he plays a lot , and has several wins on the CPT, i imagine him as a good player, but had never played at his table as such b4, so id no idea of his range.

Goodluck2me

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

(i think eddie will pass JJ or probably AK to my push)

I would have a very solid image.

Yeah he may only Call with QQ+ but it depends on what his raising range from here is. if he is as described in the earlier posts as being an uber rock, then its a fold for me. your oop and would need to hit the flop hard to continue.

Gus Ivey

Rob , I was sitting to your right for this hand.

I had AJ of spades and considering throwing the lot in.
If I had of pushed, I reckon you would have mucked your 10,10.

If that had happened I would have doubled up!

valor

dont know villain but i push here and am delighted with it

robinlacey

i can't imagine not pushing here

cardshark202

Yeah I push here even though there is a small chance you are behind to the open-raiser

HiCloy

I'd push here unless I thought UTG+1's range from there was very narrow

ntlbell

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

i know eddie, nice fella, he plays a lot , and has several wins on the CPT, i imagine him as a good player, but had never played at his table as such b4, so id no idea of his range.

Is this enough to assume he'll fold JJ/AK here?

I can't see why unless you are very very very very sure of your image

I can't see many players folding AK

Do a Dan Harrington maybe and check your watch

Whyno

Played wit eddie on numerous occasions rob and if you push he calls wit JJ+ without a shadow of doubt.
I was on eddies starting table from the off and into day two until i donked my chips off tryin to force a guy outta a pot. Eddie was very tight from the off and had only 10k startin day 2. Now if you knew what i had of known from playin the previous day you may well have only called his initial raise due to the fact that he was exclusively playin premium hands and never stepped outta line from the time i started playin wit him til i was knocked out and i`d be pretty sure he adopted the same tactics til he got to where he was. So instead of pushing i would have just called and reevaluated after the flop and hopefully hit my set and double through or triple through due to the j d ward being in the pot. Sure the 130k in the middle looked enticing but again you were in a semi healthy state and in a good position for stealing blinds off the player in question.
Also on a low flop i probably go broke.

Hitman Actual

Whyno wrote:

Played wit eddie on numerous occasions rob and if you push he calls wit JJ+ without a shadow of doubt.

Does he call with AK as well though? It makes a fairly big difference to the equity TT has in this spot.

Against a real tighty (this Eddie dude), I'd have no problem folding this preflop. I'd have to be there though.

Does the loose LP maniac change the dynamics of the table much? It may tighten up players raising ranges considerably, when they know he has to act after them.

Whyno

he knocks you down calling wit it (AK)

nicnicnic

It's a clear push for me

semibluff

i think it all depends on what you think the early raiser had. If you think he has an overpair then a flat call is correct IMO. although, to a 9 high board, do you check fold the flop? At final tables its amazing how fast players can get knocked out, and although you would be left with about 10bb, with the button about to pass you your not in too much trouble, just yet, for an orbit atleast when hopefully you can push when confident your ahead/ or wont get called)
Also i dont like pushing into a player with such a tight range. (all player dependent of course - otherwise perfect squeeze opportunity)

Did his QQ/KK knock you out? (going by the AJ saying he would have won)

Edit: Pushing pre flop - does it really matter that much that we have 10,10 as opposed to ATCs. If we are sure the button is folding, and the initial raiser is only calling with JJ+ and not AK - then he is only calling with a hand that beats us, leaving us drawing to a 3rd 10. If he would fold JJ here then thats the only benefits of a push -

LuckyLloyd

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semibluff

Rob makes a valid point about flat calling - saying folding isnt really an option, even if facing an overpair - 35k more and if he flops a 10 surely he wins a 500k pot. if he calls and misses, he's left with 195k and not TOO short (could possibly let a round of the blinds go through him if needs be - although obv not ideal)

Hitman Actual

Whyno wrote:

he knocks you down calling wit it (AK)

Fair enough. Ship it so.

I hate flat-callling here as well.

ntlbell

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I think flatcalling in this spot would be an awful spew btw.

calling 35k into a 124k pot? Awful sounds a bit harsh.

Bandana boy

First to act here on the flop i think you can call
there is plenty of flops you can open push/check fold on
I think no AK ever folds preflop here and i am pretty sure JJ does not either

Call and shove are both options

LuckyLloyd

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Tar.Aldarion

Against 2 players he is likely to be saying goodbye to that 35k. Shove/fold

strewelpeter

If your reads are 100% spot on then there its a shove IMO.
But if you widen that a litttle bit, as I would be inclined to, harden the likelyhood of an overpair and have him calling with JJ and don't forget there is some possibility that the other caller will come along with 2 over 'for value' and one of the other options looks better.
500/35 when you are facing an M of <8 if you fold and almost 7 after next SB if you call ...Yes it is a spew but at this stage might not be all that bad.
What about the payout increments? Or are you just thinking about a top 3 finish at this stage

marius

It is either a push or a stop n go for me.

I am actually leaning toward the stop n go, I think it is the perfect spot. You are first to act and have a better chance of getting JJ+ to fold after the flop than before it IMO.

semibluff

Pre flop i think you make your decision lloyd - if you dont think initial raiser has over pair/or will fold then a push is right ( rob thinks he might fold JJ, thats the only better hand thats folds because of our push).

If you think he has an overpair then it doesnt matter what flop comes down, bar a 10 you are folding. You are committing alot of your stack, but the implied odds of doubling (if not trebling) through are enough to call.

IMO i think Folding is really bad.

Tar.Aldarion

What kind of flop would oyu want with a call? (With no 10's)

ntlbell

LuckyLloyd wrote:

This is really simple. You will hate most flops and talk yourself into check / folding quite easily most times. You will sometimes fold the best hand on the flop. Calling off 20% of your chips when you know you fold most flops is god awful.
CALLING IS REALLY BAD.

You're wrapping a lot of nonsense around this.

The reason people re-evaluate after the flop is because they don't make pre flop descisions on how they "might" react even before the flop drops.

Pre flop descisions should not be influcenced by this it's obsurd.

Daithio

I think this is a pretty tough spot. Against an unknown's range I think it's a push though, but I think there are valid arguments for calling and folding also.

eoghan104

I think if your very sure he will fold jj and AK then its a push. If not however its a call for me.

aidankk

marius wrote:

It is either a push or a stop n go for me.

I am actually leaning toward the stop n go, I think it is the perfect spot. You are first to act and have a better chance of getting JJ+ to fold after the flop than before it IMO.

I think id call in this spot, depending on the 2 players. even If you think the tight player has an overpair, in this spot you are getting an 8/1 chance at being chip leader by then end of the hand..

If the flops makes an easy fold, then so be it, but with the aggressive player in it there is a distinct possibility of the pot getting out of control and if you hit..:cool: There is also the possibility that your against ak and the tight player might check a bad low flop for him which would maybe let aggressive player try to take it , at which point you can ship it against his range...

The stop and go may also work..

Looks to me like there are a enough ways to win the pot, and easy decisions on the flop to make this a pretty straight forward hand to play by calling...


CALL for me anyway.. I wouldn't ship it because with super aggressive player robbing your blind all the time, you should get a few hands with to re-steal against his range..

LuckyLloyd

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strewelpeter

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

What kind of flop would oyu want with a call? (With no 10's)

I find it hard to imagine any flop I like that does not have a 10 against these two callers...Maybe some kind of a flushing straightining paired flop but basically I hate a stop and go here. If I was going to call and I agree that it a very marginal call I'd be doing so only to hit a 10.
Lloyd almost has me convinced but it is less than 15% of a stack that is slipping into ATC one way or the other. and we know that folding is wrong but...well I don't think I can find a shove against an opponent who we believe has one of AA KK QQ JJ AK and only might put down two of them.
It all hinges on how tight we put his range here.

ntlbell

LuckyLloyd wrote:

It's not absurd. You can't say call in isolation without considering what happens after the flop. You're going to see an overcard on the flop a lot. And you are going to check / fold the flop as a consequence a lot.

The odds we are getting on a flatcall are a deceptive waepon against us in this spot. 35k to win 130k sounds great. But it isn't the correct odds to flop a set with. And when we make that call, the pot is now 180k and we have 190k behind. Therefore, we leave ourself in a position to make massive mistakes after the flop.

Not considering such facts before you act would be crazy IMO.

firstly, I never advocated a call.

it's not 35k to win 130k we have to take implied odds into consideration also.

On what the flop may or may not be are not reasons for making a descision.


You can't *not* call in a situation for set value given the correct odds based on the fact we MAY talk ourselves into folding on certain flops this is external noise which should _NOT_ come into it.

It's as bad as people saying "I called with KJs because it's my favourite hand" it's nonsense.

fuzzbox

marius wrote:

You are first to act and have a better chance of getting JJ+ to fold after the flop than before it IMO.

On what planet?
You are not trying to get JJ+ to fold, you are trying to get AJ/AQ/AK/KQ/KJ to fold.

LuckyLloyd

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semibluff

if he folds JJ , rob also thinks he folds AK. yes we would like the button to call, if OR folds, but i think we are discounting Eddie too easily. His range is prob AA,KK,QQ,JJ AK. Agreed we'd love to take the pot as it is, but i dont think he's folding that easily, and taking a flop wont kill us, although it could leave us sitting very pretty in the tournament.

Really dont like a stop and go - this will prob only work on an ACE high boards getting original raiser to fold KK or QQ , but who's to say button doesnt have soooooooted ace

Tar.Aldarion

strewelpeter wrote:

I find it hard to imagine any flop I like that does not have a 10 against these two callers...Maybe some kind of a flushing straightining paired flop but basically I hate a stop and go here. If I was going to call and I agree that it a very marginal call I'd be doing so only to hit a 10.
Lloyd almost has me convinced but it is less than 15% of a stack that is slipping into ATC one way or the other. and we know that folding is wrong but...well I don't think I can find a shove against an opponent who we believe has one of AA KK QQ JJ AK and only might put down two of them.
It all hinges on how tight we put his range here.

Exactly, I think there is no point calling that much of a stack for a two outer. Shove or fold. If you think there is a higher pocket pair fold, if not, shove.

RoundTower

I don't think it has all that much to play with how John plays (he probably called you with KJ and won), it is much more to do with what the raiser has. If he is a real nit and has JJ+ AK+ all the time fold, otherwise go all in.

Norwich Fan Rob

the main problem here was , although i know eddie , id never really played with him before.

i took the chance to pick up the 140k in the middle, and shipped it.
(it actually remimded me of my WSOP exit hand where i did an almost identical move with JJ and got called by QQ).

Anyway, Eddie called, after thinking about it for about a minute, with KK.
John insta folded.

The flop came JQx, A on turn, 9 on river, and im gone in 9th.
Eddie played about 2 hands after this, both with AA and ended up coming 2nd

eoin-dubh

Well played Rob.......I played with Steady Eddie late on day 2.......ABC
poker player............u just hope he got AK and u know johnny boy's got
John Terry sooooted......flat call brings John into pot so u push hoping for a coin toss with Eddie........your getting fantastic odds......so unlucky he got the KilKennys.....
And VICTOR says your a top bloke and player............
Chelsea fan twat hehe

eoin-dubh

meant keeps john in the pot.......

marius

fuzzbox wrote:

On what planet?
You are not trying to get JJ+ to fold, you are trying to get AJ/AQ/AK/KQ/KJ to fold.

What I am saying is that if Villian has JJ or possibly QQ I think it is more likely that he will fold post flop that to a push pre-flop. Because there is a possibility of an A or K on the flop. If villian has AA KK you are not getting him to fold either way. Basically I think a larger range of hands fold post flop than pre-flop....

bops

i like the flat call PF

if eddie had AK and misses you will find out on the flop (i do realise that you are oop, but you will still find out after checking any/all flops), as for john - you know his range is massive. If you flop your set, you will probably get paid in full.

as it happens, you would have easily got away from that flop

i think you are giving them a chance to fold worse hands and screw you with better ones

i also think that calling frm the BB disguises your hand well

ocallagh

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I think flatcalling in this spot would be an awful spew btw.

if UTG+1 range is AQ+JJ+ what do you do?

RacingSilver

I haven’t read all the responses but I’m completely in the “calling is terrible” camp here. Putting in over 15% of your stack and having to check-fold the vast majority of flops is a huge mistake.
If Eddie’s range is narrow then I’m in the small favourite/big dog scenario, so I would fold easily. If you can include AQ, and lesser pairs then ship it.

The original poster says that Eddie will pass JJ and probably AK to a push.
If so, then pushing is a no-brainer in my opinion.
However, I find it very hard to see Eddie folding either of these hands, as he is getting nearly 2/1 pot odds.

LuckyLloyd

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Hitman Actual

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Fold.

Because I think he only lays down AQ for certain to a shove; and while I am delighted to race against AK - it is very, very unprofitable to play against the rest of his range. I am very surprised that he was that tight and got that far. But hey, if that is his range then a pass is good.

Against most players, their range here is AJ + // 88+ : making a shove with 1010 correct.

Surely the addition of AQ makes it an easier push? The extra overcards in the mix increases the equity of TT, should he also call with the AQ. And if he's going to fold AQ to your shove, we pick up the 130K in the pot more often (ignoring the maniac on the button for now), which can't be bad given your stack size and stage of the tournament.

LuckyLloyd

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