Draws in the Championship

KevIRL

Ive decided to test a theory this year in the Championship. Back a draw in every game and see where it gets me.

Will update here

This weekend

Hurling - Antrim/London 20/1, Derry/Armagh 18/1

Football - Longford/Westmeath 13/2, Cavan/Down 15/2, Sligo/New York 14/1

DUB

sounds like a plan, mind you i'd skip the likes of antrim v london and sligo v new york, all the others could well end in a draw.

KevIRL

DUB wrote:

sounds like a plan, mind you i'd skip the likes of antrim v london and sligo v new york, all the others could well end in a draw.

The odd time these ones can end in a draw as well though. From what Ive looked at, ya cant avoid any game

KevIRL

Week 1.

Cavan and Down obliged with a 15/2 draw. Armagh-Derry were only a point away from a 16/1 draw in the hurling.

So far.

Bets 5pts. Return 8.5pts Profit 3.5pts

Cos88

Good Idea.

I'd say you'll get more winners in the football championship....but better odds on the hurling in general.

Are you betting on betfair?

KevIRL

Cos88 wrote:

Good Idea.

I'd say you'll get more winners in the football championship....but better odds on the hurling in general.

Are you betting on betfair?

Nope Paddypower.

sam34

had thought of this before but never did it. methinks this will be my year!

patmac

I do a €0.50 yankee each week during the league and championship you need two to come up though, has been quite successful in recent years although the fact I've mentioned it here means It will probably never come up again. Anyway my 1st bet was Long v Wmh lose, Cavan v Down win going on Galway v Mayo and Meath v Kildare this weekend, whilst were at it I predicted 3 goals or more @ 12/5 for the Wmh game I presume it was about the same for Cavan v Down so could be value there.
My yankee this weekend is
Louth v Wicklow Draw @ 9 - 1
Fermanagh v Tyrone Draw @ 9 - 1
Cork v Limerick Draw @ 10 - 1
Waterford v Clare Draw @ 8 - 1
I would have put Galway v Mayo and Meath v Kildare in the bet their already included in the previous weeks bet.

KevIRL

This weekend its

Louth-Wicklow (9/1)
Fermanagh-Tyrone (9/1)
Cork-Limerick(10/1)
Waterford-Clare(8/1)
Galway-Mayo(6/1)
Meath-Kildare(7/1)
Down-Cavan(6/1)

Down-Derry(12/1) Hurling

Lucas10101

Louth Wicklow one looks good.....

KevIRL

2 more draws this week

Louth-Wicklow 9/1 and Derry-Down 12/1

Running totals so far...

Bets 18pts, Return 31.5pts Profit 12.5pts

KevIRL

This weekend we have

Football
London-Leitrim 11-1
Louth-Wicklow 15-2
Donegal-Armagh 13-2

Hurling
Derry-Down 11-1
Offally-Laois 14-1
Clare-Cork 11-1

thirdmantackle

the most likely draws are:

Donegal v Armagh
Offaly v Laois
London v Leitrim

KevIRL

Another draw this week. Louth-Wicklow doing the biz at 15/2

running totals

bets 24pts. return 40 pts. profit 16pts

KevIRL

This weeks games....

Longford v Laois 15-2
Waterford v Kerry 18-1
Louth v Wicklow 13-2
Cork V Tipp 18-1
Dublin v Meath 15-2
Antrim v Derry 9-1
Antrim v Down 14-1

KevIRL

KevIRL wrote:

This weeks games....

Longford v Laois 15-2
Waterford v Kerry 18-1
Louth v Wicklow 13-2
Cork V Tipp 18-1
Dublin v Meath 15-2
Antrim v Derry 9-1
Antrim v Down 14-1

Dublin and Meath oblige this week at 15-2

Running totals

Bets 30pts Return 48.5points Profit 18.5pts

Macca206

Good posts.. ive seen quite a few posts on this and it seems to be a good basis to make money. Good luck with rest of season. Will be even better once the season goes on and games are closer.

Nalced_irl

I always thought that this would be a good way of doing it. The odds on draws in GAA, especially Hurling are always quite a bit too high in my opinion and well, your total so far just shows it. Good work and best of luck for the remaining games.

KevIRL

This weekend we have

Football

Carlow V Offaly 14-1
Antrim V Derry 9-1
Down V Monaghan 13-2

Hurling

Wexford V Dublin 12-1
Limerick V Tipp 10-1
Kilkenny V Offaly 18-1

blackbelt

The following is from Hoganstand.com

We like to think that there’s more to this column than just telling you how to bet – there’s also the equally important function of dispelling some of the myths out there too, myths that could cost money if followed blindly. Much like Irish society is currently finding out that there’s a lot more to the property market than clichés like “rent is dead money”, in GAA betting there are clichés out there too. One of the most prominent is the idea that there is huge value in betting the draw in Gaelic Football. Obviously we’re not here to recommend dismissing ever backing the draw in any football match, however the first three weeks of the season has seen a lot of these “draw backers” (or people who like to talk about being draw backers) coming out of the closet and claiming that backing the draw in every game is the way to retiring from work early.

Here are the facts – when obvious mismatches are discounted (for example the two Munster semi finals last weekend where the result was never in question) over the past ten years, approximately 9.5% of all intercounty championship games that were drawn. This figure rises slightly for the national league, but bookmakers know this and the odds reflect that. In order for betting on the draw to reflect value, you would have to be getting at least 10/1 about the draw in order to return a consistent profit – and with draws consistently offered at prices as low as 6/1, blanket draw betting is just another “get rich quick” scheme that can be dismissed.

However with all that said, selective draw betting is another issue entirely. Having spent the first half of this article dismissing draw betting, we’re now going to recommend a draw bet this weekend – that being between Down and Monaghan at 13/2 with Ladbrokes. The Ulster football championship has a much higher draw percentage than any of it’s provincial counterparts, and when one allows for two teams that are evenly matched, as we will see this weekend in Newry, the possibility increases even further. Monaghan are arguably the more dependable of the two teams, with a solid backline, aggressive midfielders and dangerous inside forwards – i.e. all the basic ingredients of a decent football team – but Down are capable of finding goals and staying in touch in games where they don’t deserve to. With a good sized and vociferous home crowd cheering them on, they can hang on to the marginally superior Farney county and keep in touch, and with five minutes to go the draw is likely to be a very live contender.

For our second bet this week, we’re going to look to the Leinster semi final between Kilkenny and Offaly, and to the goalscorer betting. Brian Cody might not thank me for revealing the source of many of the Cats’ goals in recent years, but keep an eye out for the Kilkenny full forward drifting out past the 21, bringing the full back out from goal and allowing space in behind for corner forwards to drift into. Paul Cleary is one of the country’s finest young talents, but he has a lot to learn, as one would imagine for an under 21. His instinct to follow his man may be overpowering, and if Aidan Fogarty can get in behind and sweep up one of those long deliveries from the half back line, punters who availed of Ladbrokes’ 7/4 about him to score a goal at any time could have every reason to be grateful for doing so.

KevIRL

hmmm I agree with some points, mostly that of selective betting, there have been a few games that backing the draw was just handing away money.

Having said that, Im still showing a healthy profit so far. Also the writer has discounted hurling, so far there has been one hurling draw, which returned 12-1.

Clareman

How are you fareing after the weekend? I presume the Tipp/Limerick draw had a nice affect on your balance

KevIRL

Clareman wrote:

How are you fareing after the weekend? I presume the Tipp/Limerick draw had a nice affect on your balance

It certainly did, a nice 10-1 shot there. Things healthy enough at the mo. WOuld even be healthier if I had left out some games that v obviously woulndt be draws (Waterford-Kerry for example). However I want to do every game just to test the theory.

Bets 36pts Return 59.5pts Profit 23.5pts

KevIRL

This week the games are

Football

Donegal-Tyrone 6/1
Dublin-Meath 13/2
Louth-Wexford 15/2
Roscommon-Sligo 15/2

Hurling
Waterford-Cork 9/1

KevIRL

Sorry bout the delay in updates folks.

Limerick-Tipp obliged at 9/1 last weekend

Running totals are now

Bets 42pts Return 69.5pts Profit 27.5pts

KevIRL

KevIRL wrote:

Sorry bout the delay in updates folks.

Limerick-Tipp obliged at 9/1 last weekend

Running totals are now

Bets 42pts Return 69.5pts Profit 27.5pts

Slight adjustment to last weeks running total, due to a special with Paddy Power my losing draw bet on Dublin-Meath was refunded.

Leaving... Bets 42pts Return 70.5pts Profit 28.5pts

This week we have

Football
Leitrim-Galway 10/1
Derry-Monaghan 13/2
Dublin-Offally 10/1

Hurling
Limerick-Tipperary 17/2

KevIRL

Thanks to Tipp and Limerick the draw bandwagon kept on rolling

Running totals now

Bets 46pts Return 80pts Profit 34pts.

KevIRL

A few games this weekend. Pretty likely the pesky hurling qualifiers will hit the profit...

Football

Kerry V Cork 13/2
Laois V Wexford 15/2

Hurling

Antrim V Clare 16/1
Tipp V Offally 12/1
Dublin V Cork 18/1
Galway V Laois 25/1
Kilkenny V Wexford 18/1

stepbar

Laois V Wexford looks the best out of a bad bunch TBH.

KevIRL

The first weekend with no draws see's the overall profit take a hit.

Updated totals

Bets 53pts Return 80pts Profit 27pts

KevIRL

Huge number of games backed this week...

Football

Roscommon V Kildare 6/1
Westmeath V Longford 7/1
Limerick V Louth 15/2
Mayo V Cavan 11/1
Down v Meath 7/1
Leitrim V Donegal 15/2
Galway V Sligo 9/1
Fermanagh V Wexford 7/1
Armagh V Derry 13/2

Hurling

Antrim V Laois 10/1
Dublin V Tipp 16/1
Cork V Offaly 18/1
Clare V Galway 10/1
Waterford V Limerick 10/1

JohnDozer

Just wonderin how this is goin?