Folding Equity

slegs

Can someone please explain the maths behind fold equity. Have my own interpretation of it but having not read Sklansky would be interested in hearing the correct definition

thanks

opr

slegs wrote:

Can someone please explain the maths behind fold equity. Have my own interpretation of it but having not read Sklansky would be interested in hearing the correct definition

thanks

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=3069765

Opr

Primewise

It’s the chance that your opponent will fold if you make a certain bet or raise.


Has anyone heard the term surrender equity? I haven't... just made it up. I guess you could define it as:

Thinks to himself... "This is a live game, i think opponent is bluffing on the river, whats the chance that I call his bet with air*, and he immediately mucks his air thinking that I have actually have a hand?"

I saw this happen last night in the Fitz.. some guy called a €250 semi-bluff river bet with Ace high, and the opponent mucked his bottom pair!



obviously it was a reckless call, but there ya go!

sikes

Primewise wrote:

It’s the chance that your opponent will fold if you make a certain bet or raise.

Has anyone heard the term surrender equity? I haven't... just made it up. I guess you could define it as:

Thinks to himself... "This is a live game, i think opponent is bluffing on the river, whats the chance that I call his bet with air*, and he immediately mucks his air thinking that I have actually have a hand?"

I saw this happen last night in the Fitz.. some guy called a €250 semi-bluff river bet with Ace high, and the opponent mucked his bottom pair!

obviously it was a reckless call, but there ya go!

Thats called a bluff call.

Primewise

ahh you asked about the math behind it...

my understanding is this (could be wrong):

I bluff-bet €100 into €100 euro pot. I estimate opponent will fold 70% of the time, and call me 30% of the time. i.e. there is 70% "fold equity"


70% of the time I win €100
30% of the time I lose €100

So expected value of this move is roughly (0.7x100) - (0.3 x 100) = +€40

When fold equity > 50% , your expected value is positive with a pot bet. This isn't always the case if you overbet the pot though

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

slegs

opr wrote:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=3069765

Opr

thanks