Live MTT Hand

Marq

Midway through the 250 FO in the Red Cow yesterday, 4 tables left.
Villian in this hand is not particularly good. Has a lot of chips, open limps a lot, but postflop he's not passive, and his bet sizing is pretty good.

My image is good, I've been active and aggressive but I've also been seen to lay down hands to post flop resistance. A few hands before this I raised UTG and called a madman's all-in with AQo. He had 75o and caught a 7 for a third of my stack, and it's possible that the table thinks I'm a little tilty.

Anyway the blinds have just gone up to 200/400 and the villian is the BB.

Stacks:
Me 16k
Villian 35k

I raise KK to 1200 in mid position. Everyone folds to the villian who calls.

Flop (2600) is Q-8-3 rainbow.
Villian leads for 800.

What's my move and why?
What's my plan for the rest of the hand?

5starpool

Generally in this spot against a less than good player I will call, hoping for a bet on the turn which I would raise, probably shove if he makes a sensible bet and turn isn't Q or 8.

It does disturb me somewhat though that you said his bet sizing post flop is good as that isn't the case here. If you take that to mean that he is trying to be clever with a big hand then as much as I hate the phrase, and generally the play, a raise here to ~2.5k might well be the cheapest way of seeing where you are in the hand, and if you think he will call with AQ/KQ/QJ a reasonable % of the time this might also be the quickest way to get the chips in against his range.

Gholimoli

Well you said his bet sizing is pretty good post flop but I don’t see 800 in to 2600 pot as particularly good.
I think he either has a monster and this is teaser bet to get raised or else he has missed and is testing you.
He could have a str draw but that draw is kind of obvious when it comes in.
Do you think he is cabple of bluff 3betting you here if you raise him?
I mean the stacks are deep enough for him to put another raise in on the flop if you raise him here?
If he is capable then I think its best just call him.
If he leads weak again on the turn I would just call him again.
If he checks I would prob bet a good amount.
If he check raises you on the turn I think you should commit your self here unless he is a nit post flop.

NickyOD

I would always just call here. There's no draw on this flop and one of you is way ahead of the other. I've got no problem with never raising on any street unless I see a sign of weakness. I'd be worried about 33/88 but not enough to fold unless he speeds up considerably.

Ste05

I'd probably just call him down, and bet the river for value if he checks.

ocallagh

It is highly unlikely he has two pair however 888 or 333 is not unlikely given the way he has played this. The 800 is a bad bet for you. Normally I hope to get my stack in here against AQ but when villains (like the one you described) start to bet odd amounts it worries me! It is quite close whether to call or raise the flop.

If I call the flop I would play the rest of the hand somewhat passively. You might lose value from AQ by playing this way but you will extract more from most other Q's. You will also leave yourself the option of value raising the turn or river.

If I raise the flop I'd put in a really weak raise to 2200 total. This option will extract more value from AQ / KQ as he might go into check/call mode for the rest of the hand which is by far your best outcome. Once you go with the raise option though, there is a small chance AQ will unknowingly bluff you off the pot.

Hectorjelly

So your planning to fold if he goes allin?

Gholimoli

We can look at this hand as if he checked the flop.
I would often bet the flop but some times check behind to induce further bluffs.
His 800 can really be interpreted as a check also.
You can some times raise him and some times just call for same reasons.
I mean his bet can be trapy bet to induce a raise or it can be a bet made to give up the hand. just like a check that is some times can be planned CR and some times just giving up.

Marq

Gholimoli wrote:

Well you said his bet sizing is pretty good post flop but I don’t see 800 in to 2600 pot as particularly good.
I think he either has a monster and this is teaser bet to get raised or else he has missed and is testing you.

The bet size is what threw me in this hand. My thinking was pretty much identical to yours as to his range of hands.

What do we do if we raise the flop to 2.5k and he flat calls, and then he weak leads a blank turn? what if he checks the turn?

Ste05

It's highly unlikely he'll flat call a raise, it's usually going to be followed by a fold or a re-raise. The first is bad and so is the second. There's no real draws out there, so one of you has the other crushed.

A donk bet is not the same as a check.

Although obviously I'm about to look like a fool and be told well I raised to 2.5k and he called :rolleyes:

connie147

Id imagine he's trying to keep the pot small. Obviously its either that or a weak lead looking for a reraise. Its read dependant after playing with him. I'd probably reraise him to about 3k and be prepared to call a push. If he flat call the 3k reraise, and the turn doesnt bring a Q,8 or A, im pushing .

Wombatman

ocallagh wrote:

It is highly unlikely he has two pair

Not sure about this. I think he can play any hand for an extra 800 in the big blind based on details in OP. Looks weak. J 10 maybe or 8X, with a river suck out to come?

ianmc38

Gholimoli wrote:

We can look at this hand as if he checked the flop.
I would often bet the flop but some times check behind to induce further bluffs.
His 800 can really be interpreted as a check also.
You can some times raise him and some times just call for same reasons.
I mean his bet can be trapy bet to induce a raise or it can be a bet made to give up the hand. just like a check that is some times can be planned CR and some times just giving up.

Agree with all this.

My first instinct is a weak lead looking for a raise.

I'd probably call and reassess on the turn and go into calldown mode. I dont see huge value in raising the flop.

Hectorjelly

ianmc38 wrote:

I'd probably call and reassess on the turn and go into calldown mode. I dont see huge value in raising the flop.

Most villains as described will not fold any queen. His 800 bet cant really be a bluff, so I dont really see much value in calling down.

ianmc38

Hectorjelly wrote:

Most villains as described will not fold any queen. His 800 bet cant really be a bluff, so I dont really see much value in calling down.

So you raise and call a push?

Gholimoli

Marq wrote:

The bet size is what threw me in this hand. My thinking was pretty much identical to yours as to his range of hands.

What do we do if we raise the flop to 2.5k and he flat calls, and then he weak leads a blank turn? what if he checks the turn?

my worry is not what if we raise the flop to 2.5 and he calls,but rather what if he raises ?
if he just calls and leads the turn small then im calling and checking if he checks.

the problem is if he raises you again how happy are you going to be about calling?and how happy are you going to be about folding?
if you are certain or close to certain that he would not 3bet you with a hand that you have beat then i like a raise here other wise i prefer call.

ocallagh

Wombatman wrote:

Not sure about this. I think he can play any hand for an extra 800 in the big blind based on details in OP. Looks weak. J 10 maybe or 8X, with a river suck out to come?

Ok, ruling out two pair would be stupid, butI think it's unlikely. If he's calling raises with Q3 or 83 I'd be surprised. Q8 possibly, but he'd bet stronger on the flop IMO.

Hectorjelly wrote:

So your planning to fold if he goes allin?

Not sure if you were replying to me. If he pushes after we raise to 2200 his range reduces to AQ, KQ, set or maniac bluff/semi bluff. AQ and set most likely. I would consider folding. I'd have to take into account a lot of external factors which we don't have info on here. Does villain overvalue hands, will he play for stacks with one pair, his previous betting patterns and resulting showdowns and also any reads.

marq wrote:

The bet size is what threw me in this hand. My thinking was pretty much identical to yours as to his range of hands.

What do we do if we raise the flop to 2.5k and he flat calls, and then he weak leads a blank turn? what if he checks the turn?

edit: just read gholi's response and 100% agree with that

jimmii

Gholimoli wrote:

my worry is not what if we raise the flop to 2.5 and he calls,but rather what if he raises ?
if he just calls and leads the turn small then im calling and checking if he checks.

the problem is if he raises you again how happy are you going to be about calling?and how happy are you going to be about folding?
if you are certain or close to certain that he would not 3bet you with a hand that you have beat then i like a raise here other wise i prefer call.

That looks pretty spot on to raise you really need to have decent knowledge of the player and why he has bet so small.

Hopefully they'll keep on making it cheap to call although it could lead to a river push which is no fun. Fingers crossed for a king then its nice and easy!

Marq

Wombatman wrote:

Not sure about this. I think he can play any hand for an extra 800 in the big blind based on details in OP. Looks weak. J 10 maybe or 8X, with a river suck out to come?

No. Most here would know me better than to think that I would create one of the "thinly veiled bad beat threads" that I complain so much about.

I didn't raise the flop to 2.5k. Instead I flat called and became a station for the rest of the hand. the flop bet wierded me out, and I felt that he was either bluffing or had me utterly crushed. On the turn (pot 4200) he bet 1200, and again I called, pretty sure now that one of us had the other murdered, but still no idea which.

The river was a blank and he bet 2400, and I made a crying call. He slowrolled me a little and eventually turned over a set of threes, and I mucked my hand without showing.

The few people I talked to about this hand seemed to think that raising the flop was pretty standard. Playing the hand the way that I did worked out in my favour here, but I'm still wondering if not raising the flop was a mistake. I suppose if I'm wrong about his hand being either a bluff or a monster then raising is better because it might make the marginal hands commit more money to the pot.

Solksjaer

Marq wrote:

No. Most here would know me better than to think that I would create one of the "thinly veiled bad beat threads" that I complain so much about.

I didn't raise the flop to 2.5k. Instead I flat called and became a station for the rest of the hand. the flop bet wierded me out, and I felt that he was either bluffing or had me utterly crushed. On the turn (pot 4200) he bet 1200, and again I called, pretty sure now that one of us had the other murdered, but still no idea which.

The river was a blank and he bet 2400, and I made a crying call. He slowrolled me a little and eventually turned over a set of threes, and I mucked my hand without showing.

The few people I talked to about this hand seemed to think that raising the flop was pretty standard. Playing the hand the way that I did worked out in my favour here, but I'm still wondering if not raising the flop was a mistake. I suppose if I'm wrong about his hand being either a bluff or a monster then raising is better because it might make the marginal hands commit more money to the pot.

it is quite evident that you need to step on the escalator that's going up to higher levels. going up...(cue 'are you being served' music)

Marq

Solksjaer wrote:

going up...(cue 'are you being served' music)

or the intro to Koka Kola by The Clash.

Solksjaer

Marq wrote:

or the intro to Koka Kola by The Clash.

Elevator---goooooooooing up...RIP Joe the Legend.

you must have an older brother with taste....

valor

well your read on his bet sizing was waaaay off anyway, his bet sizing is atrocious

i think your passive line is fine here

Marq

no you misunderstand. from what I had seen of him until this hand his bet sizing was good ... that's why his bet interested me: because I hadn't seen him make a donk bet like this at all.

Obviously he played the hand too weakly looking to get called on every street. If he known I was such a station I may have gone broke (unlikely really, but possible).

willie I'm the eldest, but i do have impeccable taste.

ianmc38

I think weak leading for 1/3rd pot can be extremely effective against the right player. Most people that play tournaments in Dublin and a large % of the ones in that game yesterday would have raised the flop and called the subsequent allin with KK. It might not be the optimal bet size, but against weaker players it works well. Luckily Marqs holdem is better than his mythical.

Marq

ianmc38 wrote:

Luckily Marqs holdem is better than his mythical.

I had about the same level of luck in each of them yesterday.
Rigged.

mewso

It might be time to re-evaluate how long you give these guys before you decide they are good at bet sizing. Often good bets on the flop are from donks scared enough to make the right one.

For example do you think the next time he hits a set he'll do something different or exactly the same thing?

I think you played it well. With ultra agressive play being the tactic of the jour in tournament poker (albeit without any competent thought behind it) coupled with ego faced with possible donk it all equals alot of apparently good players going broke here and adding the "day the donk called my raise with 33" to his memoirs.

Marq

I hadn't decided that this guy was good at bet sizing, just that his bet sizing has been good since I'd come to the table. Then he does this and I think "donk", but what does this donkeyness mean: is he bluffing or marginal or monster or what?

meh. discussion over anyway. Looks like most would raise here and re-evaluate if he calls or pushes.

mewso

I think both the raise or the call have merits.

The raise could lose you chips for all the times you have him beat and he folds, but reduce the amount you would lose by check calling all the way assuming you lay it down to a re-raise.
The check call wins you chips all the times you have him beat etc. and doesn't lose you a huge amount if he has you beat.
Fact is you were suspicious so I think the check calling was the correct decision so I'm not with "most" here.

NickyOD

I like the way you played the hand Marq and I play it the same way. Calling allows TP or other PPs to bluff off more chips when drawing very thin, and lets you get to a showdown cheaply (or catch your 2 outer) when you are behind. I think you might still see JJ or KQ very often in this hand.

If you raise the flop, do you think he will three bet or cold call and check raise the turn? If he cold calls a flop raise do you check behind on the turn? If so he leads the river anyway. Playing the hand the way you did may.

I remember playing a very similar hand once where I raised with blinds 100-200 to 700 UTG with QQ and the SB called me. I had him on TT/JJ because of some pained remark he made when he looked at his hand. The flop was Ten high and he lead for 500. I called. Then i called another 2K on the turn, and with 6,000 left in my stack on the river I folded to a 4K bet. He had pocket Tens.

Shortstack

Most people have said his bet sizing is not good here but he picked the right and wrong player with his weak lead.

Marq has said he has been playing aggressive so why would he not lead out small looking to be re-raised? The only mistake he made was not realising that Marq is good enough to notice something was wrong with bet.

Against a bad aggressive player the weak lead is good and the bet sizing correct. Against a thinking aggressive player he should have bet the pot or checked.

Gus Ivey

90% of the time i would raise a bet like that on the flop. A lot time you play AA or KK slow it always seems to kick ya in the nuts, either that or the biggest scare card in the world comes on the turn

NickyOD

Gus Ivey wrote:

90% of the time i would raise a bet like that on the flop. A lot time you play AA or KK slow it always seems to kick ya in the nuts, either that or the biggest scare card in the world comes on the turn

Look at the board though. What scare cards are there?

Gus Ivey

NickyOD wrote:

Look at the board though. What scare cards are there?

i know its a very very good flop for KK, but if u flat called on the flop i wouldnt like to see and Ace,Queen or 8 on the turn........even a J,10 or 9 as he could hit a set on these cards