Yuk, am I a break even player? PT stats for ~13k hands at $50NL

breadmonkey

(I tried to make the pics big enough so you could read them directly but I just couldn't get it to work so if you wouldn't mind clicking on them I'd appreciate it.)

All comments welcome.

Also, if anyone has played with me (breadmonkey, iPoker), I'd like to know what you think of my play. I won't get offended.







As you can see from the graph, I seem to have run well for about 6k hands and then I'm pretty much break even over the last 7k hands or so.

luckylucky

I can only see a few stat details on here, it doesn't show your vpip, how much you've won etc.

breadmonkey

did you click on the images (there are 3 seperate ones one of top of the other)

Rb

Afaik, 13K is a bit too small a sample size to tell.

breadmonkey

rb_ie wrote:

Afaik, 13K is a bit too small a sample size to tell.

Yeah I know it's not a huge sample but I'd like to know if my stats are ok as well.

valor

uh ur running at 7bb/100 why on earth would u think ur a breakeven player?

breadmonkey

because I was running at something like 20bb/100 for the first half of that graph and that's rpobably the only reason i'm at 7 now

valor

well you might suck at poker but your stats dont show it, and having a 7k break even stretch is completely normal

Rb

breadmonkey wrote:

because I was running at something like 20bb/100 for the first half of that graph and that's rpobably the only reason i'm at 7 now

I don't think 20bb/100 is sustainable at $50NL anyway. I'm open to correction though.

breadmonkey

valor wrote:

well you might suck at poker but your stats dont show it, and having a 7k break even stretch is completely normal

Ok that's what I needed to hear.

phantom_lord

7k hands is absolutely nothing.

Iago

i'm currently on a 16 buyin downswing at this level, combination of losing a $hit load of coin flips, and really bad tilt on my part following really bad outdraws

e.g.

Ah Ks vs Qh Jh on a 3s Th Kh flop, both all-in -1buyin

Ah Qc vs Ts 7h on a 5h 6h Th flop, both all-in -1buyin

Ah Jc v's As Ts on a 8s Jh 7s flop, both all-in -1buyin

Qd Td v's 5h 5c on a 8d 5s 9d 4d board, both all-in -1.5buyins

Kc Jc v's Qd Ks on a board of 2c Qc 5c Qh, both all-in -2buyins

and so on and so forth....and yes ive omitted my spew hands


I was at 8.5bb/100 after 10k hands and I'm now at -1.2bb/100 after 15K hands, variance will even out after a while but 13K is far too small a sample (I hope) interesting article on downswings here from 2+2

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=7194553&fpart=&PHPSESSID=

gerry87

Whats your SD/100 hands? You can work out the % prob that you're a winning player.

And how did you do the graph, poker tracker? My graph would be a lot more depressing than yours!

pok3rplaya

this one time I played 170k hands breakeven.

breadmonkey

gerry87 wrote:

Whats your SD/100 hands? You can work out the % prob that you're a winning player.

And how did you do the graph, poker tracker? My graph would be a lot more depressing than yours!

Where is SD/100, I can't see it?

You can get the grapher here

pok3rplaya wrote:

this one time I played 170k hands breakeven.

Really?

Thanks for the replies so far, I'm happy enough and now realise that I was looking waaay too short term. So are the stats themselves ok?

gerry87

breadmonkey wrote:

Where is SD/100, I can't see it?

You can get the grapher here


Really?

Thanks for the replies so far, I'm happy enough and now realise that I was looking waaay too short term. So are the stats themselves ok?

Go to session notes, click more details in session summary and look for Standard deviation/100 hands.

peeko

7BB/100 is good

I got 50 hands on you showing you at 20/18. Nice aggression, but you were down 2$

Chucky the tree

where are those numbrs people post found in PT? i.e villian is 28/8/3.

gerry87

Chucky the tree wrote:

where are those numbrs people post found in PT? i.e villian is 28/8/3.

Usually the first one is VPIP, Voluntarily put in pot%, how often you put money in the pot when you don't have to - How tight/loose you are. Next is PFR, Preflop raise %, and the last one is post flop aggression factor, a rating between 0 and 5(i think 5) How aggressive you are after the flop. If there's a 4th one its usually how often the player goes to showdown or they're BB/11 hands.

Rb

From what I can tell you're playing fine (open to correction), have made some good money in a relatively small amount of hands. Keep it up.

Chucky the tree

Thank you. So 28/8/3 would be tight passive/agressive?

valor

28/8/3 would be ****

Chucky the tree

why? What would be considered good? Higher, lower?

cardshark202

28/8/3 means you are limping way way way too much, not raising enough pf. You seem to be playing aggro enough postflop, but that style doesn't really work to well when you arent thinning the field preflop often enough. You probably get it in behind quite a lot.

breadmonkey

@Gerry

SD/100: $43.8024 - 43.994 big bets

Marq

move up levels.

gerry87

breadmonkey wrote:

@Gerry

SD/100: $43.8024 - 43.994 big bets

2+2 wrote:

Win rate and standard deviation: Well, I guess I'll put something in here about win rate. It's simultaneously the most important and the least important stat. Be happy with anything above 0, naturally, but I'll include how to calculate with what confidence you know you are a winning player. This applies to all poker, not just 6 max, and it has been covered elsewhere, but I'm including it here for completeness. First, get your standard deviation per 100 hands from the Session Notes tab ---> More Detail. Divide that value by sqrt(N/100), the square root of the number of hands you've played divided by 100. That gives you the uncertainty (standard error) of your win rate, i.e., the accuracy to which you know your win rate after having played this many hands. As you can tell, it'll take quite a while to converge to within even as much as 0.1. Anyway, divide your current win rate by your uncertainty. This result, which I'll call Z, can be taken to a normal distribution table, like this one http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/z_table.html . Enter your Z into the "Below" box, and that's the probability you're actually a winning player. For the lazy ones among us, here are the cliff notes: Z = 1, there's an 84% chance you're a winning player, Z = 2, 98%, Z = 3, 99.999%, and Z = -1, 16%. As you can see from those numbers and a little figuring on your own with your standard deviation, it doesn't take all that many hands to know for near sure that you're a winning player. It should be equally apparent, however, that it's relatively likely for a winning 2+2er to have a negative Z over a reasonable stretch of hands.

Mean BB/100 is 7.79
SD is ~44

Standard Error = SD/SQRT(No of hands/100) = 44/SQRT(12000/100) = ~4

7.79/SE = 7.79/4 = 1.9475 Standard deviations from the mean. So there's a ~97% chance you're a winning player. If you keep it up for about 14k more hands you'll be 99.99999999999999% a winning player. Unless i screwed up again.

Edit: I was way off, i fixed it tho, and you're alot better in the 2nd revision!