Estonia. The small country under attack. Gas and influence.

dublinfella

Greetings folks.

After reading small article on the RTE website http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0427/estonia.html I felt like adding more information as to what is going on in the small country called Estonia. For a number of days the country was under attack. Attack directed from Kremlin in order to facilitate construction of the Russian German pipeline. The official reason given by Moscow was relocation of the bronze soldier statute from its city central location to a military cemetery.

Riots that happen in Estonia were aimed at dividing country and diverting its attention from the gas pipeline. Estonia potentially can by acting together with Finland delay or even stop the pipeline construction. Hence the fuss.

Consequences.

For the last three, four days government websites (www.valitsus.ee) was under constant DDOS, etc - attack coming from various botnets co ordinated from Moscow. Personnel of the Estonian embassy in Moscow are under the siege and can`t leave and enter the building freely. The siege is organized by a political party `Nashi` which I believe is a youth wing of the Putin government party. Press in Russia shows propaganda directed against Estonia. Riots have been organized by the people who received money and other help from the Russian government. Now most of the are arrested. The situation is more less under control at the moment.

Its is clear that the Russia aim is to use gas to advance its influence. By positing itself as a supplier of gas both to EU and China. And EU current silence about events taking place in Estonia only further emboldens Putin.

Here is a few articles about recent event posted on the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website. http://www.vm.ee/eng video

Unshelved

I was a visitor to Estonia last year and I think it's a fascinating country in transition. On the one hand you have all these confident Estonian nationals, proud of their country, their culture and their membership of the EU - they're to all intents and purposes like the Scandinavians (although not as friendly) - with an easy command of other European languages and a very outward-looking, progressive mentality.

However, nearly one third of the population is Russian - most of whom moved in there after the war to work in industry. Like the other Baltic states the Estonians had a horrendous time during and after the war. The Russians saw themselves as "liberators" - not strictly true because the Nazis had moved out before the Russians moved in - and there was some collaboration between the Nazis and the Estonians regarding the deportation of Jews among other things. As we all know the liberators became the oppressors and Estonia remained under Societ rule until the 90's.

Flash forward to now - the Russians are now the underclass in Estonia. They can't have Estonian nationality until they pass exams in Estonian language history and culture. They are blamed for a lot of the crime in the country and there seems to be a huge level of alcohol and drug abuse among them - maybe because they feel disenfranchised.

However from the Russians that I talked to there, there also seems to be a huge amount of self-pity. They seem to think that the Estonians should be grateful to them for saving them from the Germans fifty years ago. They resent having to learn Estonian - one person told me that it was "too difficult" - even though he's the third generation of his family to live in that country. They seem to be a group of people that has been left behind by history and progress - neither citizens of one country nor another and not wanting to fully participate in either country.

The moving of a Soviet war memorial seems to be a spark that set off a demonstration of this Russian dissatisfaction through riots and protests. To me though it seems that the resentment of the Russians actually stems from not being "top dog" in Estonia any more. Russians in Estonia are calling for their actions to be backed up by Moscow. I hope that the government in Tallinn can rely on the EU for support in the event of aggression from Putin. Russian should not be allowed to meddle in the affairs of an EU state - they're not in charge there any more.

Fratton Fred

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Does the EU have the balls to face up to Russia, politically if not militarily.

I wonder if this is also connected to Putin's remarks about the US missile bases? smoke and mirrors maybe?

dublinfella

Hi Unshelved,

Thanks for taking your time to reply.

Few things to add. Around 800-1000 people participated in the `protests`. Most of them were the same kind of people who behaved like crazy in the Dublin city centre on the day of the proposed Orangemen march. A big number of curious and shocked bystanders were present. Most of the rioters were given alcohol, drugs, brainwashed etc. The whole thing was planned. Its is not how people behave on a day to day basis in Tallinn. The divide between estonian and russian speaking citizens arent huge, in fact it might be gone at this stage. Police managed to apprehend most of the riots organisers. Who supplied them with information? The `russian speaking` folks. In fact around 50% (can`t provide an exact statistics) of the police officers are second and third generation estonians.

Here is a short chronology of the event.

Nord Stream (read Gasprom and Co) is planning to build a gas pipeline. Gas pipeline initially supposed to pass through the Findland territorial waters.

April 2007

Finnish government said that it wishes to change the pipeline route. New route then have to go via the Estonian economic zone.

Nord Stream submits application to the Estonian government in order to receive permit to start exploring this new possibility. Do the tests, etc. Application is returned. Official reason need for more detailed explanation.

At the same time government in Estonia debates whether the state territorial waters should be extended to 12 nautical miles. That is technically and legally possible under the international law. This move potentially can block or delay the construction of the gas pipeline. A bit of leverage

Few days after riots happens. Border is `inflitrated` and cyber attacks are launched on the entire government infostructure. TV propaganda starts to brainwash Russian citizens as to excuse Putin`s actions and present his case whatever it is favourably to the world media.

So called`alinated` russian speakers (they represent roughly 2-3 percent of the entire population) were used to give Putin an `excuse`.

Ex German PM (Currently employed by the Gasprom) was sent to Tallinn to hold talks but Estonian government refused to meet him.

As said before embassy in Moscow came under 24 hour siege. Tallinn Lord Mayor spoke critically against the government actions and demanded the government resignation. That shows how important is the gas pipeline for Putin. If he is ready to bribe and bully so many people.

All means were and still are used to pressure Estonia into saying ok to the gas pipeline without asking for the concessions from Russia. At the same time its is clearly understood in Estonia that if the new pipeline simply come to operation Russia will be able to cut the gas at any time without disrupting supply to the Germany, UK, etc.

As far as I am aware the situation was discussed in Brussels recently. Nothing much happen. At the end of the day countries like Germany want to get the gas one was or another. EU is not so united as it wish to be. And thats natural, given that countries interests tend to diverge now and then. Take farmers subsidies for example.

That`s what`s going on.

Here is a few links

http://www.regnum.ru/english/753619.html
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=43858
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372116

philologos

Surely wouldn't it be the duty of the European Union to help defend it's members?

OS119

sadly not. the EU could do much more politically to bolster Estonia's square off with the Russians, but any form of military alliance is ain't. thats not to say that an entirely co-incedental EU battlegroup exercise in Estonia wouldn't help the situation....

fortunately Estonia is a member of NATO. Article five covers it.

interestingly Iceland - that pin-up of 'we don't need a military because everyone loves us' foolishness - has just signed two seperate defence agreements with Norway and Denmark, in addition to its ongoing agreements with the US and NATO.

the new agreements mainly revolve around having Norwegian and Danish training exercises in Iceland, its airspace and its territorial waters. any suggestion that they want - and are paying for - extra NATO forces hanging around their neck of the woods because friend Putin is finding his old shoes too tight is of course nonsense....