What's his range here?

NickyOD · 27-04-2007 2:56am #1

20K Gtd on Party with 15 players left. All ITM and and guaranteed about $260 at the moment. It's a $100+9 entry. Over 6K for first.

Even though I've been stealing blinds a lot my table image has to be very very tight as I've only shown down AQ and (on the last 3 orbits) I've shown Kings twice.

I can hardly remember the villain in this hand playing a hand even though he's been at my table for at least an hour. The only one hand I remember was where he RRAI from his BB with 55 when medium stacked against a serial blind theif and was lucky to be called by 33. Other than that he's been pretty much a statue except for opening from the button a few tmies to take the blinds.

I have 39,000 and the blinds are 1500/3000. UTG I make it 9000 to go and the button makes a minimum reraise to 15,000.

What's his range?

Hectorjelly · 27-04-2007 3:10am

Id guess AA KK

ocallagh · 27-04-2007 3:19am

his range is very tight and his raise is worrying.

on a side note: If we have any pair should we call? 6k to win 54k (presuming he is getting it in on any flop)

NickyOD · 27-04-2007 3:29am

Hectorjelly wrote:

Id guess AA KK

Ok. So if I have KK my move is......?

Hectorjelly · 27-04-2007 3:46am

call and go broke on any flop

NickyOD · 27-04-2007 3:52am

Hectorjelly wrote:

call and go broke on any flop

hehe. So you're going against your read in the hope he has QQ then?

Hectorjelly · 27-04-2007 4:54am

Id need more information to fold the 2nd nuts

cardshark202 · 27-04-2007 4:58am

His range is JJ QQ KK AA AK, prob TT and AQs too. 1 hour on the table is prob only 70 hands or something so he could easily just have been card dead for that time. With KK shoving now or calling and going broke on any flop are fine. Same with QQ imo.

Hectorjelly · 27-04-2007 5:27am

It depends on what you mean by range, whilst there is a slim chance of him having TT or AQs they arent really very likely, he is much more likely to have AA or KK. His range is very heavily weighted towards a monster.

cardshark202 · 27-04-2007 9:29am

Hectorjelly wrote:

It depends on what you mean by range, whilst there is a slim chance of him having TT or AQs they arent really very likely, he is much more likely to have AA or KK. His range is very heavily weighted towards a monster.

I disagree that its 'heavily' weighted towards those hands. Maybe AA and KK are a bit more likely and TT and AQs are far less likely, AK, QQ and JJ are more than likely enough to make QQ profitable in this spot.

Hectorjelly · 27-04-2007 9:44am

A normal bad tight player in his spot will raise all in with some of those hands, call with others, and min raise with AA, sometimes KK, never any other hand. His minraise is what bad players do when they find themselves with the nuts. A guy with JJ is just never going to think, oh yipee I have jacks, lets try and keep this guy in the hand.

Dearg81 · 27-04-2007 9:53am

I think hector is spot on here, id still call and try and hit a set(if u have a pair) cos if he does have AA hes not throwing them away and ur getting good odds to call.

cardshark202 · 27-04-2007 9:57am

Hectorjelly wrote:

A normal bad tight player in his spot will raise all in with some of those hands, call with others, and min raise with AA, sometimes KK, never any other hand. His minraise is what bad players do when they find themselves with the nuts. A guy with JJ is just never going to think, oh yipee I have jacks, lets try and keep this guy in the hand.

Oh shít I forgot it was a minraise! Ok yeah it is AA/KK most of the time. wriggle.

DeadParrot · 27-04-2007 10:26am

Hectorjelly wrote:

A normal bad tight player in his spot will raise all in with some of those hands, call with others, and min raise with AA, sometimes KK, never any other hand. His minraise is what bad players do when they find themselves with the nuts. A guy with JJ is just never going to think, oh yipee I have jacks, lets try and keep this guy in the hand.

I love that post hector particularly the last line....so simple and yet so true.
That said KK I go push push here

connie147 · 27-04-2007 12:53pm

I agree with HJ. Its almost definately KK or AA. QQ comes into the equation but I cant see him doing this with AK, AQ or JJ. Id imagine an all in move with them tyoe of hands here.(then again, if he's a good enough player to do the "he knows that I know that he knows" type of scenario, he could be getting you off the pot with a lot less as he knows your foldiong most hands here except the premium hands.

Even with them thoughts, Im still not folding KK here.

LuckyLloyd · 27-04-2007 2:21pm

This post has been deleted.

ocallagh · 27-04-2007 7:55pm

If we plan to go broke on the hand and we have KK then just shove, if he has QQ we might not get maximum value on a bad flop.

I think he has AA a LOT here, maybe as high as 70% (if we have KK). This might warrant a fold preflop, or a call for set value.

valor · 27-04-2007 8:38pm

I think he has AA/KK here almost exclusively, with most of the time AA. that said, I would always go broke with KK coz thats what I do

NickyOD · 27-04-2007 8:46pm

Cold calling is just silly. He's not folding so shove it in preflop if you want to go broke.

I shoved and of course he had aces. At this stage of the tournament, and given that he has been such an inactive player I don't think it's possible for his range to be anything other than AA/KK which means I should fold.

What's his range here?

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