calculating odds

JoeB-

Hi
I'm wondering if anyone can help with calculating poker odds.

For example what are the odds of dealing 3 Aces from 5 cards dealt???

I reckon the way to do this for 3 Aces from 3 cards would be...

4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 = .0001809 or 1 in 5528

But this doesn't work for five dealt cards...

A similar problem would be the odds of making a flush in hold'em when you hold two suited cards... I reckon the odds of completing the flush are 1 in 20 but is this correct for a particular suit, say spades, or is it the odds of having 3 suited cards which might not match your pocket cards? (That would make the odds of completing the flush 1 in 80)

Is hand simulations the only way to calculate the odds?

And without a hardware random number generator there is no point writing a computer program to do the hand simulations as it won't be random.

Cheers
Joe

JoeB-

OP here...
Another question is getting two aces in the pocket in hold'em...

so the odds are
4/52 * 3/51 = 1 in 221

This is the correct odds isn't it?

Mellor

The best way to do it is to work out the number of possible 5 card deals, then divide by the number of deals that have 3 aces.

5 card deals = 52x51x50x49x48/5x4x3x2x1= 2,598,960
with 3 aces = 1x1x1x49x48/2x1=1,175

So chances of 5 cards with three aces is = (1.175/2,598,960)x100 = 0.05%
So once in every 2000 deals

gerry87

((4/52)*(3/51)*(2/50)*(48/49)*(47/48)) of AAAxx there are 10 (5choose3) combinations of 3 aces (AAxAx....) so

((4/52)*(3/51)*(2/50)*(48/49)*(47/48))*10 = 0.00173607905 so about 1/10 of 1%

I thiiiink thats it, i could be making stuff up though.

And yep, pocket AA are 1 in 221

http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php answers loads of those Q's

JoeB-

nice answers...

I did get great results in honours maths so I should be able to do this....

Mellor... what about deals with four aces? (They also have 3 aces... only a small point, sorry to be awkward.)

Thanks Gerry87, great site you linked too.... I will read up on it and learn the techniques he gives... he answers many of my questions.

I'm a break even poker player at small stakes over hundreds of games, I want to improve into a winning player. I think I just need to be braver and get the chips in more often.... just have to learn to accept I will be badly beaten sometimes and outplayed other times. And I must make notes...

Cheers

5starpool

On the same topic, I was having a conversation with Liam Barker a couple of days ago and he was wondering what were the odds of getting dealt a specific card (i.e. a 5, doesn't matter what suit). He reckoned he was getting a 2 nearly every hand and when I said it was about 13/2 (quick calculation) he offered me 5/1 for €100. I nearly took it, but am glad I didn't as he would have cleaned me out