Punchestown Thursday

20LEgend

I fancy United in the stayers hurdle. She finished 4th in the world hurdle after leading two from home but emptied coming up the hill. With no hill to contend with and with the rain this week the conditions should suit although she would probably like it with a bit more cut.

Currently trading at 19/1 on betfair which i find a bit generous.

Any thoughts welcome

scojones

I'm a big fan of United thanks to fade2black, but I think she will need it softer. In saying that, I may be backing her regardless. She beat Refinement by 14 lengths in conditions that suited her better, yet Refinement is 12/1 and she's 16/1, she definitely over valued at that price. Maybe I'm reading this completely wrong but I got the impression that she didn't stay at Cheltenham, she looked under pressure before the hill but that might have something to do with the pace that was being set.

In the 3.30, Duty is also over priced and can run on any ground. By rights, Punjabi should run away with this race considering its previous form in very competitive races, which several of these have featured in (when it finished 4L behind Katchit). If Duty doesn't get third or better, I will be disappointed. I will be getting stuck into Punjabi with a small each way on Duty.

I took note on Sunday when Dave Duggan was asked what his bet of the festival was. He sided with Gemini Lucy and I can't disagree with him. It has beaten several of these before, one in particular is Schindlers Hunt who I think will also run a good race and has won here so has course form. I do think it's between Gemini Lucy and Another Promise, who ran a blinder in Cheltenham, a day when Gemini Lucy was not on form and that run should be written off. Another Promise finished 2L behind Neptune Collonges who of course won today, so is well capable of getting into the frame but I think the day will be Gemini Lucy's.

Outside of that the card is not appealing.

Dap Daddy

For all my loyal followers who cleaned the bookies out on Tuesday,dust off those wheelbarrows for TRANQUIL SEA in the 6.25 Punchestown.This will not get beat tommorrow.You have been told.

scojones

Why won't it get beat tomorrow?

Dap Daddy

Of course these races take some winning but she's going there with both barrels cocked and ready to fire

knighted

form from its first race is working out very well then it won beating stewarts house which is closely matched with mad fish on pointing form

held an entry in the cheltenham champion bumper but i wonder why they didnt have a crack at the irish champion bumper ?

Dap Daddy

knighted wrote:

form from its first race is working out very well then it won beating stewarts house which is closely matched with mad fish on pointing form,held an entry in the cheltenham champion bumper but i wonder why they didnt have a crack at the irish champion bumper ?

Edited after reading previous post wrong.They had another one lined up for that but he split a pastern and missed out

easytiger!

Just a few possible value shots
3:30 Katies Tuitor. Disappointed last time out but trainer has always thought very highly of her and nominated this race as a long term target a long time back. He also tends to do well with the few runners he does bring over.
4:40 Essex. First time trying the staying trip but looked to staying on well at the end over 2m4 at fairyhouse last time out, has plenty of top class form in the book and should handle the quick ground ok. Mighty Man often finds a way to lose races he should win and while I am always loathe to back against Inca he's had a long season and just might be over the top.
5:50 Chemin D'Or. Wide open handicap, but was told by contact that they were waiting to step him up in trip. Has snippets of form on good ground that would theoretically give him a chance but from a serious punting yard and would give any market support due respect.

keepitquiet

Dap Daddy wrote:

For all my loyal followers who cleaned the bookies out on Tuesday,dust off those wheelbarrows for TRANQUIL SEA in the 6.25 Punchestown.This will not get beat tommorrow.You have been told.

do u know if the horse takes well to good ground as it has only been in heavy goings? cheers:)

wolfe

Healys pub in the 5.50. i had it backed a few weeks ago in aintree when it stayed on really well to finish 4th at 50/1. could be worth a punt!

careca

wolfe wrote:

Healys pub in the 5.50. i had it backed a few weeks ago in aintree when it stayed on really well to finish 4th at 50/1. could be worth a punt!

Same race, but I was told three weeks ago that After Midnight would win at Punchestown. Tony Martin, so it could win by ten lengths or be pulled up.

mickc

Am hoping it'll be a favourites day today..

can't really see past Mighty Man in the 4.40. interested in seeing how brave inca will do over this trip though.

gemini lucy in the 4.05 goes on the ground and on the evidence of its last run if allowed to control the pace of the race should win.

spot thediffence is carrying top weight but I'll be backing it with my hard earned. wonderkid at 7-2 2nd fav is way too short IMO.

Punjabi is too short for me too back (dont like odds on) but i'll stickit into a lucky 15 with the others.

DeadParrot

scojones wrote:

I'm a big fan of United thanks to fade2black, but I think she will need it softer. In saying that, I may be backing her regardless. She beat Refinement by 14 lengths in conditions that suited her better, yet Refinement is 12/1 and she's 16/1, she definitely over valued at that price. Maybe I'm reading this completely wrong but I got the impression that she didn't stay at Cheltenham, she looked under pressure before the hill but that might have something to do with the pace that was being set.

In the 3.30, Duty is also over priced and can run on any ground. By rights, Punjabi should run away with this race considering its previous form in very competitive races, which several of these have featured in (when it finished 4L behind Katchit). If Duty doesn't get third or better, I will be disappointed. I will be getting stuck into Punjabi with a small each way on Duty.

I took note on Sunday when Dave Duggan was asked what his bet of the festival was. He sided with Gemini Lucy and I can't disagree with him. It has beaten several of these before, one in particular is Schindlers Hunt who I think will also run a good race and has won here so has course form. I do think it's between Gemini Lucy and Another Promise, who ran a blinder in Cheltenham, a day when Gemini Lucy was not on form and that run should be written off. Another Promise finished 2L behind Neptune Collonges who of course won today, so is well capable of getting into the frame but I think the day will be Gemini Lucy's.

Outside of that the card is not appealing.

its scary how much I agree with you there....I posted something on another board that is eerily similar....

Dap Daddy

keepitquiet wrote:

do u know if the horse takes well to good ground as it has only been in heavy goings? cheers:)

They think he will be a better horse on a good surface like this,wasn't at home last time out on the heavy

scojones

DeadParrot wrote:

its scary how much I agree with you there....I posted something on another board that is eerily similar....

Great minds DeadParrot! Either that or great fools.

Robin1982

Just to let those of you who fancy United, I saw a Ladbrokes market with betting without Mighty Man, Brave Inca and Essex and United was 100/30. Whether that is value or not is up to you.

iloveireland

I can see the bookies losing a fortune today. I think the favourates in the first four races will all win.

2:15 Lord Kilucon.7/4
2:50 Spotthedifference 2/1 (nb)
3:30 Punjabi 5/4 (nap)
4:05 Gemini Luucy 2/1
4:40 Brave Inca 5/2

ALSO WATCH OUT FOR TONY DOBINS HORSES IN PERTH.
He only has two races and both have great chances.

3:05 crimson pirate 7/1
3:40 young albert 7/1

Good Feeling about today!

Colonel Sanders

not a punting day for me, happy to adopt a watching brief.

interesting to see Brave Inca stepping up in trip, I see no reason why he won't stay 3miles as he's won a few handicap hurdles (albeit off very lowly marks) over 2m 4. Gemini Lucy has to go very close in the novices' chase.

decent concluding bumper, tranquil sea was fancied by connections last time at leopardstown even before mad fish was declared a non runner. Jered looked good tho and apparently hadn't had too much work before he won last time out.

fade2black

Colonel Sanders wrote:

not a punting day for me, happy to adopt a watching brief.

interesting to see Brave Inca stepping up in trip, I see no reason why he won't stay 3miles as he's won a few handicap hurdles (albeit off very lowly marks) over 2m 4. Gemini Lucy has to go very close in the novices' chase.

decent concluding bumper, tranquil sea was fancied by connections last time at leopardstown even before mad fish was declared a non runner. Jered looked good tho and apparently hadn't had too much work before he won last time out.

I'm with the Colonal here. Lot of unknown factors to day and the markets are a bit misleading compared to horse's chances today...but a great day to sit back and watch. One small bet on The Roney Man later though.

easytiger!

iloveireland wrote:

I can see the bookies losing a fortune today. I think the favourates in the first four races will all win.

Good start anyway, he fairly hosed up. I always afraid a statement like that is tempting fate tho!

chump

easytiger! wrote:

Good start anyway, he fairly hosed up. I always afraid a statement like that is tempting fate tho!

yea ditto, but well in... just missed getting on it myself - lost track of time!

conZ

Only 1 or 2 favourites for me today.

Duty at 8s - your head is on this one hawker27
Tranquil Sea at 4s - ditto Dap Daddy
Gemini Lucy
Healys Pub
After Midnight

Give me at least one winner (with a decent price) please. - Don't want to jinx myself.

Colonel Sanders

one of mates got a tip for carr's horse in the race, was 20s with VCbet when I was on lunch. At least it didn't win!!!!

scojones

Star Performance has a decent enough chance in the next at Punchestown, if it can repeat the performance it gave back in November. Was pulled up at Cheltenham this year on ground that was a bit too soft for it. Just a couple of euro to have some interest.

scojones

Good ole Spot wins that. Great performance. Star Performance gave me a good run for my each way money and was a very creditable third.

chump

scojones wrote:

Good ole Spot wins that. Great performance. Star Performance gave me a good run for my each way money and was a very creditable third.

looing at some of the money matched on betfair! tis mad, some eejits had Moyglass odds on - and Spot went out as far as 10's ... madness. They didn't think the race was going to finish up that spread out did they?

Masterclass by spot all the same...!

DeadParrot

its not punchestown but
HUUUUUUUGE gamble on Ironman 4.15 Perth. 16's to 7's

easytiger!

scojones wrote:

Good ole Spot wins that. Great performance. Star Performance gave me a good run for my each way money and was a very creditable third.

Sean Graham was on ATR saying he thought Spot was the one to take on today. I'd say he got his fingers well burnt if he did. Moyglass set the race up perfect for him

Bluetonic

chump wrote:

looing at some of the money matched on betfair! tis mad, some eejits had Moyglass odds on - and Spot went out as far as 10's ... madness. They didn't think the race was going to finish up that spread out did they?

How much at 10s? I bet it wasn't much more than 50 or 100 euro?

fade2black

chump wrote:

looing at some of the money matched on betfair! tis mad, some eejits had Moyglass odds on - and Spot went out as far as 10's ... madness. They didn't think the race was going to finish up that spread out did they?

Masterclass by spot all the same...!

A lot of brits take little or no interest in irish racing for a start but they don't see those kind of races very often either so instead of taking no interest in the race, which they should have done, they got stung. Which is nice.

easytiger!

DeadParrot wrote:

its not punchestown but
HUUUUUUUGE gamble on Ironman 4.15 Perth. 16's to 7's

Just looking at the market movers, 12 of 17 horses in that race have seen support. Definition of "a trappy affair"

chump

fade2black wrote:

A lot of brits take little or no interest in irish racing for a start but they don't see those kind of races very often either so instead of taking no interest in the race, which they should have done, they got stung. Which is nice.

very true...

I can't see by Punjabi in the next. If it stands... I also think the price is tasty as layers can't see 3 favs come in in a row. Might get it at 2's yet...

hiscan

just got a tip for slow to part in the 5.30 at fontwell 13/2 with boylesports @ the moment was told it was a dead cert

scojones

Punjabi does it thankfully. Good ride by Mick.

chump

Nothing like seeing the bookies take an absolute hiding... any chance Gemini Lucy can keep up the good work?

scojones

chump wrote:

Nothing like seeing the bookies take an absolute hiding... any chance Gemini Lucy can keep up the good work?

I certainly hope so. A classy animal and I've been waiting for this race all week.

iloveireland

iloveireland wrote:

I can see the bookies losing a fortune today. I think the favourates in the first four races will all win.

2:15 Lord Kilucon.7/4
2:50 Spotthedifference 2/1 (nb)
3:30 Punjabi 5/4 (nap)
4:05 Gemini Luucy 2/1
4:40 Brave Inca 5/2

ALSO WATCH OUT FOR TONY DOBINS HORSES IN PERTH.
He only has two races and both have great chances.

3:05 crimson pirate 7/1
3:40 young albert 7/1

Good Feeling about today!

not looking to bad eh!!

Colonel Sanders

must say at the start of the day possibly thought gemini lucy was the best of the first 4 favs but surely all the jollies can't win!!!!

scojones

Colonel Sanders wrote:

must say at the start of the day possibly thought gemini lucy was the best of the first 4 favs but surely all the jollies can't win!!!!

My thoughts exactly. My biggest bet of the day. Destined to lose now!

iloveireland

iloveireland wrote:

I can see the bookies losing a fortune today. I think the favourates in the first four races will all win.

2:15 Lord Kilucon.7/4
2:50 Spotthedifference 2/1 (nb)
3:30 Punjabi 5/4 (nap)
4:05 Gemini Luucy 2/1
4:40 Brave Inca 5/2

Good Feeling about today!

come on gemini lucy.

scojones

iloveireland wrote:

come on gemini lucy.

The market drift doesn't mean much considering how punjabi performed. I am worried about Another Promise though, a very classy sort. As a side bet I did 5 euro accum on the first 5 favs. I have to say this now to avoid after timing.

scojones

Ah jesus.

chump

iloveireland wrote:

come on gemini lucy.

oh my gawd

Colonel Sanders

not watching it but heard wht happened, tough luck lads.

scojones

Another promise wins it. Should have listened to myself.

imeatingchips

God Damn Motherfckerbastrf***********er_____baaaaaaaastsrds
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Fuccking Ffffffffffuuuuuuckers

scojones

imeatingchips wrote:

God Damn Motherfckerbastrf***********er_____baaaaaaaastsrds
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Fuccking Ffffffffffuuuuuuckers

My thoughts exactly.

Ah well sure, it happens. At least the jockey is ok. Could be worse!

chump

scojones wrote:

My thoughts exactly.

Ah well sure, it happens. At least the jockey is ok. Could be worse!

I'm gonna follow you onto United in the next... speculative bet obviously - small wager. Obviously Brave Inca is the big ? in the race. Should be interesting one

scojones

chump wrote:

I'm gonna follow you onto United in the next... speculative bet obviously - small wager. Obviously Brave Inca is the big ? in the race. Should be interesting one

Be careful though! I have backed Mighty Man to win since this morning. I've a small bet on United that will cover both bets should it come in. I gave Punjabi and Mighty Man the same chance, so make what you will of that.

Colonel Sanders

brave inca is definately overpriced at 11/4 if you feel he'll DEFINATELY stay 3miles. mighty man probably the most likely winner but a tad short for my liking. Trappy beating heat, will stay well away.

imeatingchips

I couldn't see past the faves either EXCEPT the 405 and figured that - even though fortune has no memory - if all those favs came in then come in SURELY lucy couldn't? So had a 5 accumulator on:

2.15 1st 6 Lord Killucan (IRE) 11-10 F
2.30 1st 5 South O'The Border 7-4 F (perth)
2.50 1st 1 Spot Thedifference (IRE) 7-4 F
3.30 1st 8 Punjabi 6-4 F
4.05 Schindlers Hunt

ah well. the all important bottom line reads:

im still up