French Presidential Elections - Round One

mike65

3 (or is it 4?) main candidates, left, right and centre with NF wild card. The early turnout is said to be the highest for a few decades.

The two round system means the vote for Le Pen could be significant this weekend, while the presence of centerist Francois Bayrou could split the leftish vote and give Sargozy a free run to the Elysee Palace.

On the face of it each candidate offers something distict but one wonders if that'll matter too much regardless of who wins as they push up against the wedge of vested interests.

Mike.

nesf

Bayrou has plateaued in the polls for a bit though, and Sargozy seems (according to polls) to have courted the right wing enough to easily get it tbh. I'd be surprised if Le Pen gets a strong vote again considering what happened with him the last time and the ensuing second round result. Bayrou seems to be suffering from a realisation that his ability to actually form a strong government would be slim at best. I'd have my money on Royale/Sargozy to get through if I had to guess based on the (probably quite biased) stuff I've read in the media.

Chakar

The exit polls give an indication of Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy as having got through to the second round. So I'd say Sarkozy will truimph over Royal in the second round based on the polls in that scenario.

mike65

I think the opposite, the Bayrou vote will go 66/33 (approx!) to Royal.

Mike.

nesf

mike65 wrote:

I think the opposite, the Bayrou vote will go 66/33 (approx!) to Royal.

Mike.

And the Le Pen vote will probably swing to Sarkozy for the most part.

mike65

I've just seen the offical exit poll results

Sarkozy 30
Royal 25
Bayrou 18.3
Le Pen 11.5

I had reckoned Royal and Sarkozy would be near neck and neck but with a 5% head start the latter should win even if Royal gets most of the Bayrou vote cos of the Le Pen vote as nesf noted.

Mike.

DadaKopf

I reckon at this point Sarkozy will get it, unless Royal and her strategists can amplify the contradictions in his economic policy.

But personally, I don't hold out much hope for France anyway. In terms of the 'kick up the arse' that people over there say it needs, neither Sarkozy's right nor Royal's left can do it. French people want prosperity with social justice, and I think both sides are dominated by an out of touch elite. This said, I'm a leftie. Most of all the socialists, who are old-guard conservatives incapable of understanding the new world we're living in. Young whipper-snappers have a better idea, as do the nearly invisible immigrant population, but no ones listening.

I think both Sarkozy and Royal are symbols of a French nationalist resurgence, which is only a recipe for further economic and social disaster.

Ultimately, Europe's in for a wave of neo-nationalism, if you ask me.

Raskolnikov

mike65 wrote:

I've just seen the offical exit poll results

Sarkozy 30
Royal 25
Bayrou 18.3
Le Pen 11.5

I had reckoned Royal and Sarkozy would be near neck and neck but with a 5% head start the latter should win even if Royal gets most of the Bayrou vote cos of the Le Pen vote as nesf noted.

Mike.

It's not as simple as that, there are more green/far-left/far-right candidates out there with a couple of percents each.

To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of this Sarkozy lad. France is already a cauldron of tensions between student/union/minorities rioting (it's a worsening problem in France that goes almost unreported outside of it). Sarkozy has come and promised there's going to be widespread reforms. If he lives up to his word, then I could see serious escalations in social unrest in France.

mike65

de Gaulle said "how does one govern a country that has 246 types of cheese?".

Mike.

Kevster

Ségolène would get my vote simply for being the sexiest politician I have ever seen in my 24 years on Earth...


...

...:o


In general, however, I think that the world would be a better place if every nation was run by a female.

marcsignal

mike65 wrote:

vested interests.

Mike.

sorry mike can you be more specific ? whose vested interests exactly are you talking about ??

nesf

marcsignal wrote:

sorry mike can you be more specific ? whose vested interests exactly are you talking about ??

I assume he's referring to students/unions/businesses etc. Irish unions etc. pale in comparison with their French colleagues when it comes to putting their foot down on an issue.

nesf

DadaKopf wrote:

Most of all the socialists, who are old-guard conservatives incapable of understanding the new world we're living in.

That's essentially the problem with the French left. Royal after breaking ahead of them appears to have returned to shelter under their wing so to speak.

DadaKopf

nesf wrote:

That's essentially the problem with the French left. Royal after breaking ahead of them appears to have returned to shelter under their wing so to speak.

Yeah. When Royal announced her 'listening phase', I thought, "hmm, this can go either way, the beginning of a new, bold era in French politics, or a way to cover up no comprehensive policy on anything".

When Lara Marlowe summarised it in the Times a few months ago, I sounded fresh, exciting, too good to be true. The French left didn't go for it, the plan sounded to unrealistic. Her policies rang hollow.

But I wonder if the started off doing something innovative, and, like you say, got snared back in by the old-guard left. It's a shame, because it seems to me the French 'yoof' are really politicised, but no one's listening.

marcsignal

nesf wrote:

I assume he's referring to students/unions/businesses etc. Irish unions etc. pale in comparison with their French colleagues when it comes to putting their foot down on an issue.

thanks, just curious

mike65

Yes exactly, the French unions are on a whole different level of influence. They expect to be taken seriously and are.

Mike.

nesf

mike65 wrote:

Yes exactly, the French unions are on a whole different level of influence. They expect to be taken seriously and are.

Mike.

Yeah, we could see a repeat of the "in the early part of your term introduce loads of legislation, fight with the unions, lose, do very little else for the rest of your term" approach to being president.


People bitching about our public sector unions don't read enough foreign news tbh.

stolenwine

Well I have a little wager on Sarko. And as much as I hate to say it I think france needs him to ease the socio-economic malaise. I don't think creating a department of immigration is a bad idea either, there are no jobs for these people once they enter the country, they live in squats, bad living conditions this problem is too big to ignore, that's not racism from where I'm sitting that's common sense. Segolene's approach is too softly, softly. Sarkozy will get the majority of le Pens voters, but Bayrous.....?

DadaKopf

that's not racism from where I'm sitting that's common sense.

Immigration in Europe, and France, is highly mixed, with a huge amount of migrants being from other European countries. But, miraculously, when immigration is discussed, it's not the 'hard-working, professional Europeans' who are branded job-stealers but 'Arabs' who work the jobs no one else will anyway, which was why the French government (and UK) post-war appealed for colonised peoples to take up jobs in the motherland.

If most immigrants come from Europe itself, but 'Arabs' are blamed, surely it's a racist issue for France. Certainly, French people admitted this to me last week.

But French society is too rigid anyway. If you're a non-national professional worker, you find yourself blocked by (a) not being French, (b) not being educated at a French university, and (c) a strong seniority system. For the French themselves, education is critical, and France remains strongly divided by class.

I don't think Sarkosian neoliberal shock therapy will fix this. If anything, it'll make things work, as pundits are saying about his crazy taxation policy. And I also don't think the answer is in promoting a culture of individualism, but rather by changing the nature of French social solidarity and communitarianism from inward exclusivity to singular inclusivity. That would solve the racism problem.

But try winning an election on that platform.

Ultimately, the second round will be decided by which is more scary: confronting racism, or Sarkozy.