Hmmm, what to do on the River

Ste05

$1/$2
Seat 1: VILLAIN ($200.20 in chips)
Seat 3: twister035 ($204.00 in chips)
Seat 5: mrARMANI ($216.15 in chips)
Seat 6: Ted Maul ($197.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 8: doodels22 ($34.00 in chips)
Seat 10: Ste05 ($460.15 in chips)
doodels22: Post SB $1.00
Ste05: Post BB $2.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ste05 [10s Kh]
VILLAIN: Call $2.00
twister035: Fold
mrARMANI: Fold
Ted Maul: Fold
doodels22: Call $1.00
Ste05: Check
*** FLOP *** [Qs Jh 10h]
doodels22: Check
Ste05: Bet $6.00
VILLAIN: Call $6.00
doodels22: Call $6.00
*** TURN *** [9s]
doodels22: Check
Ste05: Bet $26.00
VILLAIN: Call $26.00
doodels22: Fold
*** RIVER *** [8d]
Ste05 ????


Who likes a push or value bet, if so, how much?? Comments on other streets appreciated too. He has $166.20 left, the pot is $76 and there's a straight on board. Villain is 31/4.24/0.29, I didn't know much about him other than his stats, I was 4 tabling and I hadn't been too involved with him, don't think I had ever seen him open limp UTG before, I'm sure I'd have a fairly LAG image.

phantom_lord

if he's stoopid, shove and hope he calls for a split?

sikes

id bet just under halve pot. try and make it look like a blocking bet

bops

shove is bad, bet as sikes says - he will call for split or maybe push with bluff ie win/win. if you push he may call/fold.

...mutbs - lol if he has AK

ianmc38

I'd be tempted to shove. If he's willing to call a PSB, he'll be willig to call a shove.

Betting half pot you'll probably get called 100% of the time.

So half pot has an EV of 38.

If you shove and he calls one quarter of the time then a shove is more +EV.

176 (.25) = 44

If he calls you one in 5 times, then the EV of shoving and half pot are about the same.

valor

id just make a normal value bet, $50 or so

Ste05

My thoughts were along the same lines as Ian and I pushed I thought it would look like I was trying to buy the pot. He called with a madly played AK, but I was actually thinking how often he'd call a push for a split?

careca

Ste05 wrote:

. He called with a madly played AK,

was it that mad? He had position on you the whole time and you were doing the betting for him. If it was the other way around what would you have done differently (apart from maybe raising preflop but he was UTG)? I'm interested in this, not picking holes.

pok3rplaya

prob just value bet. If you shove and he calls with AK I chalk it up to variance. No way you can put him on that.

Ste05

It's just a dangerous way to play it, although who knows what goes on in others heads, I just know that there's no way I'd be waiting for someone else to do the betting for me on that board. I might have called the flop, but I'd definitely raise the turn for fear of the board pairing on the river or the flush completing.

Although I put him on either a flush draw, set or 2 pair, so we were actually both hoping for the same thing on the turn, (no flush, no pair) then the absolute perfect card fell for him to stack me. No matter what I did I was getting stacked here, but this isn't a BB thread, I was thinking whether this is a hand where only AK will call, personally I think alot of 1/2 players will call for a split as the pot is biggish enough, but I'm not certain whether to value bet or push, I thought the push looked weaker and I'm hoping for some more opinions.

DeadParrot

Ste05 wrote:

My thoughts were along the same lines as Ian and I pushed I thought it would look like I was trying to buy the pot. He called with a madly played AK, but I was actually thinking how often he'd call a push for a split?

Just out of interest, did he have the Ah?
He was taking a bit of a risk flat calling the flop wasn't he?

Ste05

TBH, I can't remember, I don't have PT on this computer, but if he did it would certainly explain his play slightly.