Teofilo: Problems?

Robin1982

From the Racing Post:

SPONSORS Stan James suspended betting on the 2,000 Guineas on Monday afternoon following rumours concerning the participation of long-time ante-post favourite Teofilo.

Jim Bolger's son of Galileo is unbeaten in five starts, including two victories at the highest level.

But his price began to drift on Betfair and by 4.10pm he had been displaced at the head of the market by Peter Chapple-Hyam's Dutch Art.

Coral's Simon Clare said his firm had seen a deluge of money for all the other leading fancies.
"People are coming on to back everything else in the race and in the space of 40 minutes we decided we had to pull the plug," he explained.

"In our experience, something is amiss.

"It would be another major blow for ante-post punters who have already seen Holy Roman Emperor carted off to stud.

"When that happened, their one consolation was that Teofilo was still heading for the race, but that now looks doubtful.

"In these situations there is normally no smoke without fire and it would be the biggest double-whammy ever to punters."

This would be most disappointing if there is some substance to this. However, as I type, Teofilo is currently [4.1 - 5.0] on Betfair after trading at double figure prices this morning. All very strange.

Colonel Sanders

there's usually no smoke without fire. Think back to arch swing and celestial wave drifting.

There really should be an investigation into who is laying these horses at inflated odds before official announcements are made. If its people connected to the horse they should be named and shamed. Going back to celestial wave, apparently she was found cast in her box one morning despite the fact that the massive betfair drift started the evening before.

Sizzler

Didnt the same thing happen to Kicking King back in 2005 in the gold cup Wait till the official word comes out me thinks.

Dap Daddy

Have heard he broke down and wont been seen again by a realible source,could be bollox just passing on what i heard.

Loadedscream

Post says he's grand


Teofilo still 'on target' for
2,000 Guineas

by Nick Robson


TEOFILO has suffered a "training setback" but remains on target for the Stan James 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 5.

Speculation was rife on Monday that all was not well with Jim Bolger's Dewhurst winner after his price drifted alarmingly on the exchanges.

Several major bookmakers also suspended betting on the first Classic of the season.

But despite admitting his unbeaten Galileo colt is not 100 per cent, Bolger insists Teofilo is still on course for the 2,000 Guineas.

The County Carlow handler said in a statement: "Teofilo has had a training setback. When trotted yesterday afternoon he showed slight discomfort.

"As a result, his training will be restricted to walking and swimming for one week.

"Otherwise, he is fit and well and on target for his 2,000 Guineas tilt on May 5.

"A further statement on his condition will be issued early next week."

Sponsors Stan James have now reopened their market on the race but have eased Bolger's charge slightly to 6-4.

"Having suspended our market when the adverse rumours about Teofilo did the rounds, we have now gone back up and eased the favourite out to 6-4 from 11-8," said media and on-course representative Neil Morrice.

"As sponsors, we are delighted to hear that there was insufficient substance in the rumours about Teofilo's well-being to jeopardise his appearance in our race on May 5.

"It looks as if the colt will miss a week of work, which equates to a couple of gallops.

"But despite this, there is no reason why Jim Bolger shouldn't have him ready to run a fortnight on Saturday."

kincsem

I have backed and laid Teofilo twice in the last 24 hours for small money. Oh the shame. The market is yo-yoing up and down. I put up: back at 4.5; lay at 3.5, and both got matched withing minutes of each other at about 08:00 this morning. Clear profit to me. The market is very thin on Betfair. My back and lay bets were both visable among the three back offers, and the three lay requests, this morning.

The sensible thing is to lay Teofilo at about 3/1. A proper price for his chances is about 3/1 (if the race was run at the end of last year). If he runs you can back it at about the same. If he pulls out you have a win.

Factors that make that price risky this year are
(1) he hasn't grow from the 16.2 hands in April 2006, but others will have;
(2) trainer says its difficult to keep the weight off him;
(3) No prep race;
(4) Won his most important race narrowly;
(5) slight injury (unspecified);
(6) interrupted preparation close to race.

My Classics Yankee is Dutch Art (9/1); Finsceal Beo (7/2); Passage of Time (10/1); Eastern Anthem (33/1), and I am happy. I have singles on these also for small money.

Murta

kincsem wrote:

I have backed and laid Teofilo twice in the last 24 hours for small money. Oh the shame. The market is yo-yoing up and down. I put up: back at 4.5; lay at 3.5, and both got matched withing minutes of each other at about 08:00 this morning. Clear profit to me. The market is very thin on Betfair. My back and lay bets were both visable among the three back offers, and the three lay requests, this morning.

The sensible thing is to lay Teofilo at about 3/1. A proper price for his chances is about 3/1 (if the race was run at the end of last year). If he runs you can back it at about the same. If he pulls out you have a win.

Factors that make that price risky this year are
(1) he hasn't grow from the 16.2 hands in April 2006, but others will have;
(2) trainer says its difficult to keep the weight off him;
(3) No prep race;
(4) Won his most important race narrowly;
(5) slight injury (unspecified);
(6) interrupted preparation close to race.

My Classics Yankee is Dutch Art (9/1); Finsceal Beo (7/2); Passage of Time (10/1); Eastern Anthem (33/1), and I am happy. I have singles on these also for small money.

On front page of today's racing post is a quote from Bolger "We were worried going into the winter how we'd keep the weight off him, given he was such a good grubber, but we got all that right and everything worked out very well". He's well on target for Newmarket next month and we'll see how things go there first regarding Epsom. We have the option of taking him away for a day before the 2,000 Guineas, but that would be more a hack around rather than serious work".

Bolger is a honest trainer. If horse isn't right he'd come right out and say so. One has to wonder is it a scam by one/more dishonest people on betfair to "steal" money.

Murta

Mmm, are bookies using this as an excuse to slash odds on the other horses. According to Trading Report in RP, only 8,000 was traded upto 6pm yesterday. Surely, if something was amiss with Teofilo, there would have been at least ten times that amount.

kincsem

Murta wrote:

Bolger is a honest trainer. If horse isn't right he'd come right out and say so. One has to wonder is it a scam by one/more dishonest people on betfair to "steal" money.

At 13:00 last Monday Bolger told a Racing Post reporter that the horse was on course for the 2000 Guineas. At about 16:00 that day word got out that there was a problem with Teofilo and his price drifted to 10/1. On Tuesday Bolger announced there was a small problem. Unfortunately, Bolger was a day late with the announcement. It wasn't a scam. We are now awaiting a further report on the horse. If there is another delay expect the price to drift again.

Sizzler

Had a feeling this would happen

http://www.sportinglife.com/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/07/05/01/RACING_Guineas_2000_Nightlead.html

Crumbs

Non-runner!

Colonel Sanders

what happened. A mate just sent me a text saying the same.

Crumbs

A quote attributed to Bolger says he worked well this morning but then at 9am they discovered heat and soreness at the back of his off-fore knee.

masterK

It's a great pity, the race looks distinctly average now. I wonder how believable Bolgers quotes are considering there's been rumours for a few weeks now concerning the horses wellbeing.

ChuckProphet

thank f*ck i held off on my bet. :eek:

Colonel Sanders

masterK wrote:

I wonder how believable Bolgers quotes are considering there's been rumours for a few weeks now concerning the horses wellbeing.

a lot of people will feel put away YET AGAIN by this. I say this a lot but its funny how he drifted on betfair over the last few days (to as big as over 4/1) before any announcement was made.

fr wishy washy

Over evens for a place earlier in the week stunk to high heavens.

Someone has made a nice few quid on this (risk free).

[nicK]

noticed it drift out to 9/2 on betfair late last night which was a far cry from the 3/1 offered even yesterday morning.. and the injury was only found this morning? hmm...

Colonel Sanders

[nicK] wrote:

noticed it drift out to 9/2 on betfair late last night which was a far cry from the 3/1 offered even yesterday morning.. and the injury was only found this morning? hmm...

Echoes of celestial wave yet again mate. Ante post punting has become somewhat of a joke in the last 2 years or so. I was in a nice position on betfair with bet to nothing so not talking thro my pocket.

masterK

Colonel Sanders wrote:

Ante post punting has become somewhat of a joke in the last 2 years or so.

I've got to second that, ever since the Kicking King debacle I feel Ante-Post betting has become a nice source of income from those in the know. I know people will debate this but if you're a stable lad in Jim Bolgers yard and you find out Teofilo is out of the Gunieas before anybody else what are you going to do with this information?

It's got to the stage know where I rarely believe a word out of most trainers mouths.

TOm Kelly

masterK wrote:

It's got to the stage know where I rarely believe a word out of most trainers mouths.

... just thinking about that masterK ... there may be an honest profit to be harvested by doing PRECISELY the opposite to what trainers say ... I must consider this carefully ...

mdwexford

terrible news, i hadnt backed him yet but was looking forward to the free money i was going to get on saturday. the exchanges rants happen every time there is a high profile casualty these days but thats just the way it is now and people have to get used to it. of course people in the know are going to lay a horse when they know its a non runner, wouldnt you???

Colonel Sanders

quite possibly MD but rules say that anyone connected to the horse shouldn't be laying. I always say Betfair should publish a list of people who laid at big prices and a 'name and shame' approach should be followed. Try getting another job in racing if trainers know you're passing on info and laying your own horses.

TOm Kelly

mdwexford wrote:

. of course people in the know are going to lay a horse when they know its a non runner, wouldnt you???

my quest for an easy lifestyle financed by fellow investors is documented on another thread ... and I would not consider myself too high up on the 'Morality Scale' ...

but I would NEVER lay a horse that I knew was a definite non-runner ...

playing around with handicapping and non-trying is one thing ... but this is downright theft ... anybody that does this deserves to be shafted Big Time.

mdwexford

i understand where your coming from of course Colonel but as you say unless people are being named it will continue. a lot of people who work in stables are on very low wages so if the chance comes up to get free money by laying when they cant be caught they are going to take it.

mdwexford

TOm Kelly wrote:

my quest for an easy lifestyle financed by fellow investors is documented on another thread ... and I would not consider myself too high up on the 'Morality Scale' ...

but I would NEVER lay a horse that I knew was a definite non-runner ...

playing around with handicapping and non-trying is one thing ... but this is downright theft ... anybody that does this deserves to be shafted Big Time.

maybe im morally challenged then Tom but i think if i was privy to such info i would use it to my advantage. im probably going to hell...:D

masterK

Even a name and shame campaign would be useless IMO, I wouldn't imagine too many people would lay a horse they were connected with through their own accounts, they'd surely have the sense to make an arrangement with a friend to do it.

As MD says it is not hard to understand why a poorly paid stable lad who comes into such information may choose to profit from it.

kincsem

My guess is Bolger could have withdrawn the horse earlier. Why do it on the morning of the final declaration? It is a bit of a coincidence that the horse had the problem at 09:00 on the final day. I doubt it is a dishonest move, more likely a Bolger personality characteristic. I know he is very anti-drink, and my guess is he is not too concerned with bookies and punters.

I made €84 laying Teofilo. That's peanuts. But I was fairly certain he had little chance of winning. The Teofilo situation allowed me have €533 at 133 on Eagle Mountain (incl €2.50 at 300). Perhaps he will not contend, but he has the equal Topspeed rating of 133 (with Adagio), and his Postmark 131 is second (with Strategic Prince / Major Cadeaux) to Dutch Art on 135.

Adagio might do it but who wants 3/1 ?

Plenty of talk about Haatef (only two runs, doubtful stayer); US Ranger (four wins in France, three in the provinces); Diamond Tycoon (a maiden winner).

TOm Kelly

mdwexford wrote:

maybe im morally challenged then Tom but i think if i was privy to such info i would use it to my advantage. im probably going to hell...:D

Yep .. you're definately a bad 'un ... I'll lay you 33s that you don't make it through the Pearly Gates ...

and I have always had huge sympathy for the stable hands and the way they have been exploited for years - up at all hours and paid buttons - and they put up with it because they love the horses ... I see more and more non-nationals leading horses now - no doubt they can screw them even harder ...

but it is a fine and dangerous line to justify laying horses that are non runners on the basis of being underpaid - huge opportunity and temptation in liquid big races ... what next ... damage a horse to make sure it doesn't run!

masterK

kincsem wrote:

I know he is very anti-drink, and my guess is he is not too concerned with bookies and punters.

That's very posibily true but the fact remains if he felt the horse was a doubt for the race then in coming out and giving glowing references to the media he effectively lied. As for having little concern for punters, by doing so he is effectively alienting the people who pay his wages albeit indirectly. I personnaly feel that all trainers have a moral obligation to be honest with the racing public as without them they wouldn't have an existance.

knighted

mdwexford wrote:

i understand where your coming from of course Colonel but as you say unless people are being named it will continue. a lot of people who work in stables are on very low wages so if the chance comes up to get free money by laying when they cant be caught they are going to take it.

sorry to single out ur post md but a stable lads wages are about 300 euros a week -where do people think these staff get the money to lay horses?

Colonel Sanders

after the celestial wave debacle there was a story doing the rounds that it was very respected journalists that were laying it.

In fairness considering the guy who used to own Joss Naylor (Mercer i think his name was) was warned off for laying his horses for buttons it wouldn't surprise me if stable lads laid horses fro very small amounts.

mickc

Paddy Power are now refunding all losing single ante post bets on teofilo


from RP site
Paddy Power felt “so embarrassed” by the ongoing cruel run of misfortune for punters that they took the unprecedented decision in a Classic to return all losing single ante-post bets on Teofilo, which the firm claimed totalled £75,000.

Power's biggest single bets on the colt were €5,000 at 4-1 and £4,000 at 9-4.

Spokesman Paddy Power said: “It's the first timen we've made a refund in such a high-profile race, and while everybody knows ante-post betting is a risky business, punters can surely do without another kick in the gut after the way the results fell at the jumps festivals earlier in the year.”

TOm Kelly

Fair play to Powers for that.

copied and pasted from Betfair forum:

Interesting article in today's Guadian:

Racing awaits ***** rule

Trainer Jim Bolger's apparent admission on Sunday that some of his staff profited from laying 2,000 Guinea's ante-post favourite Teofilo to lose after it was injured at home comes as the British Horseracing Authority prepares to issue its definition of inside information.

From September, cheating by profiting from inside information will be an offence punishable by two years' imprisonment, and the definition being thrashed out is eagerly awaited amid fears that it could effectively criminalise jockeys and connections for passing on information. Insiders expect the definition to be published within 10 days.

Suspicions about Teofilo's fitness began on April 16 when its price lengthened on exchanges, sparking rumours of an injury that were confirmed by Bolger. On April 29 the colt appeared among the final declarations for the 2,000 Guineas only to be withdrawn four days later.

and:
The HRA's regulatory board are only interested in the negative use on the exchanges and they have gone as far as to say that it's unacceptable for a horse to be laid on the exchanges that is known to be injured, dead or a non-runner.

knighted

holy f**k-this information sickens me -as i havent read the gaurdian i am only commenting by the previous post but if this is true bolger and his 'team' should be held accountable to hri and if nesscessary before the courts just like they have done with jockeys -if an owner lays a horse he is warned off but a stable lad who is closer to the horse can lay away- terrible-
as in a post earlier i am amazed the stable lads have the money to lay a horse as there wages are so low -now i have no problem with a stable lad backing a horse for profit as this is not a gaurenteed bet -but laying an injured horse with that knowledge is 100% gauranteed to produce a return as u know the outcome of an event before it happens -so i would like to know where they got the money to lodge to thier accounts to cover thier lays -did a third party finance it ?-i will be emailing hri ,jim bolger and the stable staff association to get thier viewpoint on this as it sours the whole industry

does anyone have a link to the gaurdian article that i can read so i dont go off half cocked?

Colonel Sanders

same as you knighted, this is the first I've read of this. Disgusting. As you say no different than a jockey passing on info. A link would be great, anyone?

Colonel Sanders

good old google:

http://sport.guardian.co.uk/horseracing/story/0,,2074004,00.html

fair enough he doesn't name names but considering McCoy says in his book that anyone caught drinking or smoking was turfed out of Bolgers stable I hope this will happen here. Bolger was once a man I respected highly, not any more.