Betting on the election

telecaster

Lots of markets out there, maybe Joe Public can make a few quid from this election.

Major difference of opinion on liklihood of Bertie being Taoiseach in the next govt.

Powers
Bertie 4/7
Enda 5/4


Ladbrokes
Bertie 2/7
Enda 11/4

Which bookie has it right?

pigeonbutler

Massive arbitrage opportunity there. 10% ROI if you bet in right proportions taking best price from each. Pity I gave up gambling. But then it's not really gambling if you're arbitraging is it?

ballooba

Not necessarily a two horse race. Cowen could come into play very easily.

The_Minister

If you're voting for a government candidate, then bet in one of Ivan Yate's bookies. All his odds are weighted to make Fine Gael look better.:D
He had Colm O'Gormon at 20/1 when Paddy Powers had him at about 4/1, and at one point had him at 100/1.

ninty9er

ballooba wrote:

Not necessarily a two horse race. Cowen could come into play very easily.

Cowen won't come into it until 2010 if at all....my money's on Hanafin if it's not to be Bertie

eirmail

I have money on bertie @ 4-7.

I also got FF/greens @10-1 back in january they are now 9-2.

I then put a few quid on FF/greens/PDs @ 10-1 recently as well.

I got the SNP for the most seats in scotland @ 5-6 they are now 8-15

ballooba

I got Enda Kenny at 7/2. Have him for about €150.

ninty9er wrote:

Cowen won't come into it until 2010 if at all....my money's on Hanafin if it's not to be Bertie

He could be in sooner than that if anything juicy comes out of the tribunal.

Zebra3

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1817179&issue_id=15542

Fianna Fail to lose 17 seats, say bookies

FIANNA Fail are set to lose up to 17 seats in the general election, if the latest betting odds from bookies Paddy Power are correct.

The bookies make 64-67 seats the most fancied prediction for Fianna Fail. This would be a disastrous result for the main government party and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern when compared with the 2002 total of 81 seats.

Paddy Power offer 6/4 against a return of 64-67, while laying 7/4 against 68-71, 3/1 for 72 or more seats and 7/2 against 63 or less Fianna Fail TDs.

Their betting also suggests that Fine Gael, which captured 31 seats last time, will net between 45 and 48 seats and this is on offer at 11/8. They lay 9/4 against 41-44, and 3/1 against 40 or less and 49 or more seats.

However, the bookies can't make up their minds on Labour's likely tally and offer odds of 9/4 against all of their propositions. The Progressive Democrats, which returned eight TDs in 2002, are also set for a heavy defeat at the polls, according to the layers who think their total could be as low as 4.

The only odds-on bet with the firm is that Sinn Fein at 4/6 will increase their current tally of five deputies to either nine or 10, while they offer 5/2 against 8 or less seats, 4/1 for 11 to 12 seats and 13/2 against 13 or more.

- TOM BRADY

:eek: FF/PD wipeout?

I like it!!!

GabharBrean

pigeonbutler wrote:

Massive arbitrage opportunity there. 10% ROI if you bet in right proportions taking best price from each. Pity I gave up gambling. But then it's not really gambling if you're arbitraging is it?

How does this work. Do you bet in certain proportions on Bertie winning at both bookies? Or do you have to back him losing as well?

scaramanga

eirmail wrote:

I have money on bertie @ 4-7.

I also got FF/greens @10-1 back in january they are now 9-2.

I then put a few quid on FF/greens/PDs @ 10-1 recently as well.

I got the SNP for the most seats in scotland @ 5-6 they are now 8-15

ya backed ff/greens too , the figures dont add up for fg/lab/green
cant see the pd and greens together , but suppose these guys would go in with anyone:rolleyes:

Marcais

Don't know what it's at now but Rabbitte as next Tanaiste was 9/4 when I stuck a few quid on it.

PH01

Bertie Boy is the outright favourite to be the next TeaShock but FF leading the next Government isn't?
What's the story?

ballooba

Bertie has more options than his FG counterpart. Hence the skewed odds.

Enda can only really get in with Labour and possibly the greens too.

Berties's potential options are:
Labour, SF, Green & PD.

Glenbhoy

Ladbrokes go 5/6 Bertie and 5/6 Enda, Rabbitte is 1/2 to be tanaiste, interestingly and rather amusingly, McDowell and O'Caolain are both 10/1 to be tanaiste, looks like Michael's tactics have worked a treat.

ballooba

Glenbhoy wrote:

Ladbrokes go 5/6 Bertie and 5/6 Enda, Rabbitte is 1/2 to be tanaiste, interestingly and rather amusingly, McDowell and O'Caolain are both 10/1 to be tanaiste, looks like Michael's tactics have worked a treat.

Poor value in my opinion.