AA hand first level Irish Open

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

HiCloy

He bet 3000 into 700?! Interesting bet sizing.

Caro book of tells (tm) if he stares at you he's bluffing, if he looks away he's not, and if he shrugs his shoulders to act weak he has a monster

Without knowing the nature of how he was "heavily involved" I'd probably fold. You've invetsed about 500 and it'll cost you your whole stack to see if you're ahead. There'll be better spots against someone who bets like that

Shivverz

Make a stance and push'em FFS. If your gonna fold AA to guys like this, give me your chips!!! He's blatantly playing off his earlier wildness, does he really have 33,44,55 with 1k from EP , maybe 67 suity but if he does then he's hit the jackpot considering first impressions.

Lissavalley

I fold here. As previous poster said when a player looks disinterested in a pot he usually has a monster.

However if he has a set/straight its a strange way to play it

Ste05

Hmmm, very tricky, I suppose I'd push, seeing as he has a preclivity to over bet, but I think a fold is OK too, such a nasty looking flop. Did he ever say/show what he had the last time he over-bet?

Although on the TV table who knows I'd say it changes the dynamics quite alot, very interesting hand indeed. I'd say it'll make the telly anyway, so on the plus side you should get some air time.

Samba

Shudder.

Very tough spot. I'm not happy calling off that stack with one pair but your physical description to me, says he is potentially weak but reads can occasionally contain contradiction..

I really need to be at that table to tell you if I can call or not in all honesty but here goes.

It stinks of A2 or a range you have crushed that he's over played (66-1010).Anything higher based on what you've described he is going to re-raise PF.

I would not be overly confident re-raising all in so I fold, unless i have a very strong physical indication that dictates otherwise.

Shivverz

hes rippin the pi$$ outta ya, call all day! 1k from EP your beating 66,77,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK...... One of which he most likely has, COME ON!

Hitman Actual

I know the outcome, so I can't give an unbiased answer. But without any decent reason to do otherwise, I probably get the money in here

Hitman Actual

Shivverz wrote:

He's blatantly playing off his earlier wildness

Most guys who play as stupidly as is being implied by the post haven't the intelligence to play off their wildness.

Hectorjelly

Given all the info id push

phantom_lord

as I said to you earlier I'd probably push.

phantom_lord

Today, 01:21

wft?? it feels like 7 or something!

Bandana boy

I dont see how you can fold here i feel you get this from 99+ from this dude as well as hands that have u stuffed
If the occasion got to me i might find a fold but i think we have to push here LT

ditpoker

while what im about to say is probably bad poker advice generally i think it has to be considered:

if this is the type of tourney you play all the time, push. but given that this is your first (and hopefully not last) tourny this size the fold becomes easier/safer.

i.e. you play €100 tourney's all the time, i dont think u fold that hand in the jackpot tuesday game, or the SE 200 game as you play these all the time, and if you call and win ur on 15k and motoring. if you lose, no biggy, u'll be back at the next one. but given that you dont play 3k + games all the time, and u wont be back at the next one (for a while) if you call and lose thats it game over.

i hear dev knows what the chap had cos he was watching the tv camaras elsewhere... well....!!??!?!

The_Chopper

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Level 1. TV table (so eight handed). I have circa 7,600 chips after failing to get a squeeze through an orbit and a half ago. I was called down and had to declare King high on an Ace high board (I received a crying call by AJ).


Anyway, I get two black Aces in mid position. Folded to me, I make it 175 to play. Button (14000ish) is the only caller.

This dude has been heavily involved from the start. His bet sizing has not been optimal and he has been forced to show down a couple of mad hands. An example of his random play is when he was second to act in a hand and made it 1,000 to play (20x BB)after first to act had limped in. Needless to say - he wasn't called.


Pot (425)

Flop: 345 rainbow


I lead out for 350. He shrugs his shoulders and raises, making it 3350. He then picks a spot on the table, folds his arms and stares.

I have exactly 7,000 chips behind. Understand that calling is not an option.

I study him for 3 or 4 minutes and he does not make direct eye contact. Eventually he calls clock.

Shove or fold?

I'd fold without hesitation. You've 525 in the pot and he's saying to you with his bet do you wanna play for stacks with one pair. A bit like Brad Booth did to Phil Ivey with 42 against kings.
That's just my conservative 2 cent anyway

eggie

looks like a set up, stack em and rack em, waste x amount early blinds to create an image, then stack an overpair under same pretences.

ntlbell

I know the out come also.

I probally knock over every player at the table including people on carne beach in wexford over getting my chips in

jbravado

Does anyone give any relevance to the casual shrug of the shoulders before the raise?In most cases I would have thought this is an indication of a pretty big hand....

Hectorjelly

eggie wrote:

looks like a set up, stack em and rack em, waste x amount early blinds to create an image, then stack an overpair under same pretences.

either that or he could just be a bad player. Bad player get good hands sometimes as well

Hectorjelly

the reason you cant fold allmost no matter what physical read you get, first of all this guy is undoubtadly a bad player. He could well have KK QQ JJ and be trapping preflop. (Or he could have something like Aj and be making a move. thinking he has more outs than he does) Without playing with the guy much theres no way to tell if his confidence is a set or a hand which he thinks is best.

eggie

this is a gut thing, its like folding KK preflop, not many like to do it, but sometimes you just know its the best option, simply because it doesnt feel right.

Hes pricing you to push not to call, and if you call and he checks u still have to push, its an intelligent bet by your opponent because he wants your chips in.

ntlbell

Hectorjelly wrote:

the reason you cant fold allmost no matter what physical read you get, first of all this guy is undoubtadly a bad player. He could well have KK QQ JJ and be trapping preflop. (Or he could have something like Aj and be making a move. thinking he has more outs than he does) Without playing with the guy much theres no way to tell if his confidence is a set or a hand which he thinks is best.

hector i think you're going out of your way to ignore the fact that jbravado has all ready posted the exact reason you should fold, hector you're really showing that you're a true idiot/donkament in this thread.

recognize wrote:

"Does anyone give any relevance to the casual shrug of the shoulders before the raise?In most cases I would have thought this is an indication of a pretty big hand...."

cardshark202

Yeah call call call

EDIT: By call I mean all in obviously.

eggie

Hectorjelly wrote:

the reason you cant fold allmost no matter what physical read you get, first of all this guy is undoubtadly a bad player. He could well have KK QQ JJ and be trapping preflop. (Or he could have something like Aj and be making a move. thinking he has more outs than he does) Without playing with the guy much theres no way to tell if his confidence is a set or a hand which he thinks is best.

agreed, hard lay down against somone like this, but stil an unknown who can afford to bluff (thinking your not as strong as you are) or playing to what you think he is. Too early to put it all in for me, but wouldnt criticise a push either. Gotta be there and feel the karma really.

I dont think you can trap preflop with qq OR JJ with a lot of confidence.

sikes

cardshark202 wrote:

Yeah push push push

.

ntlbell

eggie wrote:

agreed, hard lay down against somone like this, but stil an unknown who can afford to bluff (thinking your not as strong as you are) or playing to what you think he is. Too early to put it all in for me, but wouldnt criticise a push either. Gotta be there and feel the karma really.

I dont think you can trap preflop with qq OR JJ with a lot of confidence.

so how many hours later will you get AA all in on this flop against this player?

I'm just wondering as Dan Harrington is always talking about his watch, it might help my game

Jimmy Hoffa

By folding u did the right thing you are still in well done.Where are you now knocked out grow some balls for the next game u play in and stick it all yinn.

eggie

i think when you play a tournament of this sturcture you obviously have a pre- developed strategy of how you will play.

If you want to risk your tourney life with AA against a wild card playing haphazardly then do so. Push. (still presuming this is level 1 ). Do you think hes gonna blindly play like an idiot and waste 3500 euro on the first level? its quite affordable to present yourself as an idiot risking a small percentage of your stack early doors to create the impression of a maniac only to get paid off on a board that suits your opponents holdings. Because u know he thinks your a maniac and will call with an overpair against sporadic play.

LLoyd, did he risk his full stack at any time before this hand?

jbravado

ntlbell wrote:

hector i think you're going out of your way to ignore the fact that jbravado has all ready posted the exact reason you should fold, hector you're really showing that you're a true idiot/donkament in this thread.

I meerly ASKED did anyone feel that this was an indication of a strong hand?Apologies If I somehow mananged to offend you ntbell-nice patonising insulting remark though-well done.

I realise that this will rarely be a fold on this board against the player described.His reaction may well be belying a strong hand but what HE considers a case hand has a huge range-much of which we crush.

Physical tells and gut instinct are a huge part of live poker-I do not believe that these can be ignored simply because more often than not we are miles ahead.

phantom_lord

ffs lads, it's either a call or it's not, whether it's the io or a 20yoyo freezeout, whether it's level one or level 20, is irrelevent.

Jesus Wept

move up levels

58o

I think this was a nice laydown, that not many would make (especially under the glare of the cameras). Easy to say you are ahead Blah blah % of the time here from a distance, live it is quite different, there is times when it can be narrowed down

ianmc38

i coudlnt fold this ever.

Jesus Wept

ianmc38 wrote:

i coudlnt fold this ever.

degenerate, how did u finish in the cash?

ianmc38

The-Rigger wrote:

degenerate, how did u finish in the cash?

Very good, though could have been slightly better.

White Knight

Ok the only way we can say this was a good lay down is basing the facts on the result. That is the only way. Results based thinking is wrong. No question.

BUT I do think this opens up a question on how valuable/questionable reads and instincts are.

Unlucky today Lloyd ..

ianmc38

I'd be interested whetehr or not you'd have pushed if it wasnt the TV table. I think that and also the boards busto hand played on your mind.

Dont let it worry you anyway man. You'll come out of the recent bad run and get another big result soon no doubt.

Solksjaer

lloyd, this was an exceptional fold, it actually takes balls to fold AA on national TV for fear of looking a right fool, so I applaud this fold. I ,like so many others on this thread may have walked earlier. His tell was glaring to you so WP. I went out of our game last Sunday in a similar manner, Id AA I raise 5 bbs, BB calls, flop q 9 6, I raise he pushes. He hit two pair im out.

donkey preflop call but i put him on two pair and was pot committed , the difference is you were not pot comitted, you had a read so why risk it. If people want to play poker by the book and not use their instincts, this game would be as predicatable as sht.....

now I'm back to bed or else the plane to Lourdes....looks like there a few Aces out there to be cracked:)

Jesus Wept

HiCloy wrote:

He bet 3000 into 700?! Interesting bet sizing.

Caro book of tells (tm) if he stares at you he's bluffing, if he looks away he's not, and if he shrugs his shoulders to act weak he has a monster

Without knowing the nature of how he was "heavily involved" I'd probably fold. You've invetsed about 500 and it'll cost you your whole stack to see if you're ahead. There'll be better spots against someone who bets like that

I'm starting to take what Caro says with a large grain of salt, some things may be good, and some not. His results are awful though.

Samba

The-Rigger wrote:

I'm starting to take what Caro says with a large grain of salt, some things may be good, and some not. His results are awful though.

Couldnt agree more, on many occasion has an opponent stared me down and flashed me a set when i've duely called!

DapperGent

I think from the info so far I would think that this isn't a good player and that him having some kind of over pair to the board is more likely than a straight, two pair or a set and push.

Anyway if he does have a set we hit an Ace like 75% of the time here.

evilclown

i think because of the comp it is fold it not much invested but if his such a loose player i would have raised more preflop, but its donkeys like this that try the bluff and catch runner runner and make you SICK, unable to sleep, angry, mass murderer etc gl cant wait to see the tv!!

a147pro

I really dont think anyone bluffs like that into a pot that size.

The more I think about this and the more I see other people's ideas on the hand the better this laydown is.

Lloyd knows and understands all the reasons why others say never fold here, but he did. Why? Because he felt he had to be behind.



VWP.

califano

Lloyd. If you fold a hand you have to feel good about it or at least forget about it. I took it that in the antes up thread you were steaming he didnt show. If you feel like your going to remain steaming or are likely to play like a tiltmeister after a fold like this then i say you may as well have just chucked it all in here.

I reckon im putting it all in here everytime against this player and just about everytime against any player.


Did you fold face up?.

AS_PokerKing

me thinks he had Kings or maybe squad-duuush and was merely at it for the tv table, I'm nearly sure I was watching you on this hand, was it the guy sitting to your immediate right ??? if so I defo saw it and the inquisitive stare down you gave him as well,

There was only 6 hands that beat you, and some of them are doubtful,

A 2...unlikely seen as you had 2 Aces,

6 2 very unlikely...... 6 7 ??? hmmm nah dont think so, most likely it was trip 3's 4's or 5's but who knows, I hope it gets shown

Tonights tv is highlights from day one and they will be showing all the big hands from the feature table, this sounds like a quality laydown so i'll hope they show it.

wp anyway

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

AS_PokerKing

- Are physical reads worth factoring into big decisions?

- Should we just automatically jam it in on a co - ordinated board with AA for 140 BBs?


Of course physical tells are worth factoring into big decisions, if you catch someone in the corner of your eye doing something that gives off a tell i.e. staring at the flop, a shaking hand etc your gonna take it into consideration. Going with your gut is also key, which you did in this situation. I was playing in same tourny as you in the deepstack game in the green isle 2 weeks ago and saw you call a guy after the river with pocket 4's, He showed A Q for a complete bluff and your call proved to be right, and it apears you got it right again yesterday.

WP

ZZR1100

imho reads are highly underrated.you knew 99% in your gut you were behind and followed your gut.
i have made crazy calls in big live tourneys based solely on solid reads and have yet (if memory serves) been wrong.the reverse is also true except you dont get to see opponents cards.
i still push here though as his range is huge no matter what info your getting off him.
BTW showing the AA face up was your biggest mistake .
every1 else on the table must be saying ...if this guy is willing to fold here he can be bullied off a lot of pots.
saw a guy in macau 1k do that (no names).he folded a non nut straight on the flop and showed it.
every pot he was in after that was rerasied by scott gray and if scott didnt do it the english pro beside him did.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ocallagh

Good fold if your reads were all correct! and it seems they were.

Online against random punter with aggressive tendency i'd happily put 140BBs in here but liveis so very different. I don't think anyone can really comment on this one unless they were there.

I'd only have shown one ace tho!

kincsem

I know the answer, but I would fold. It sure doesn't look like a probe bet, but is a bet designed to get action from trips. He knows he has the nuts.

You can never be sure, and anyone who says they are is a flamper.

This happened on my table early on:

Board AKxJQ. Player to my left in seat 1 had been setting a heavy pace, and seat 10 calling (very loose agressive). Seat 10 threw in 3000 when the Q hit the river. Player 1 called with pocket AA, player 10 showed KT. Bad play by player 10. The table knew he had it. But they expected him to turn over TT. They just didn't know player 1 was robbed until he turned over AA.

Later on a 2467Q board (all suits) player 10 bet 8000 when the queen hit. Surindar Sunar folded after a long dwell. Seat 10 took the pot showing K3.