Your opinions please

scojones

I can see a few people throw their eyes up to the sky when I mention Exotic Dancer on here, and it's well known by now that he is one of my favourite horses which is why I want opinions on this, because I might just be trying to convince myself of his chances in Sandown.

Fact: Exotic Dancer prefers going left handed.
Fact: He has come on leaps and bounds in the last year, and should be able to handle the mark he has for the Sandown Gold Cup at the end of April

Fact: His career best (before the Cheltenham Gold Cup) was on a right handed track (Kempton) when finishing 8l off Kauto Star.

Fact: He fell and broke his pelvis at the first at Sandown in 2005.

He's 19/1 on betfair at the moment and I'm contemplating whether to get stuck in or whether to wait for a while. Now, as of yet I haven't assessed every other entry on the card, but he has beaten more than several of these already. Turpin Green has a big weight hike and would still be an each way chance in my opinion, but Exotic Dancer doesn't have much of a hike at all from the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

So, the questions are: Is he good enough to beat these going right handed on a track where he fell at the first and broke his pelvis? Considering his performance at Kempton, on paper you would say he is, but his jumping towards the last couple of fences was slack, particularly the last, but he has come on since then and his last run at Cheltenham shows this, but that was left handed. One of my arguments against Kauto Star prior to the Gold Cup was that he had been campaigned away from Cheltenham, but look what happened there.

It's also worth noting that he was entered in the National but has been pulled out, and with this Gold Cup two weeks after the National it's no surprise really. To be honest, if I trained or owned Exotic Dancer there is no way I would run it in a National, and that's because I value its life more than a good run or win in the National.

I think I will wait a while, but for now what are people's opinions on both this race, and this horse?

keepitquiet

i would have liked to have seen exotic dancer put into a position in the gold cup where it could have challenged kauto star. the horse is run best when it comes late and there is no question of that but it seemed like it was conceded to second by mccoy, instead of being put into a position where it could challenge.
and i mean well before the unridden horse got in its way because it was to late by then.

it jus frustrates me when a horse is left untill to late when it could have had a battle with kauto star, may have lost but it would have told us more about the horse:)

scojones

The exaggerated hold up tactics are what are key to Exotic Dancer winning. I do agree though, I felt McCoy held him up a little too much in the Gold Cup, but in fairness he has never going to beat Kauto Star. He shortened the 8 lengths to 2.5 lenghts, and that is some feat considering he was stuck for room on two occassions towards the end of the race, and had to be switched around the loose horse.

If Exotic Dancer had have made a move a lot sooner he would have ended up forth or fifth.

He was always in a position to challenge Kauto throughout the race, until Ruby took the outside route, and McCoy went up the inside. If McCoy had have followed Kauto he may have gotten closer, but I've no doubt in my mind that he would not have beaten Kauto. Look at the run in, the two of them stay on the same pace. Kauto is not stretching away from Exotic Dancer, and Exotic Dancer is not closing. This is as fast as Exotic Dancer could go, and Kauto had him matched for that.

keepitquiet

thats one way of looking at it but imo the horse only slowed due to having to much to do, im not saying it would have beaten kauto star, however if the horse was closer to kauto star it could have pushed and may have had enough left in the tank. im not critisising mccoys riding i just do not like to see a horse not putting in a realistic challenge to win and almost settling for second place.

i dont think it should have made a move earlier dont get me wrong i just think it should have been kept closer to kauto star and then had a chance at making a move at the end... i dont think that kauto has matched him for pace at the end as such its more about there being two tired horses.

scojones

keepitquiet wrote:

thats one way of looking at it but imo the horse only slowed due to having to much to do, im not saying it would have beaten kauto star, however if the horse was closer to kauto star it could have pushed and may have had enough left in the tank. im not critisising mccoys riding i just do not like to see a horse not putting in a realistic challenge to win and almost settling for second place.

i dont think it should have made a move earlier dont get me wrong i just think it should have been kept closer to kauto star and then had a chance at making a move at the end... i dont think that kauto has matched him for pace at the end as such its more about there being two tired horses.

I'm in agreement with you on most things there. I don't think Kauto Star was tiring though. My opinion is that if McCoy had have followed Ruby when he went to the outside of the pack that eventually made McCoy nearly snatch up Exotic Dancer, he would have been closer. But in saying that, I think that Kauto would have quickened away if Ruby asked it to.

knighted

well i dont often praise tony mccoy but i think he gave ed a great ride -he knows the horse well and imo another jock would have been tempted to go too soon -from where i was standing it looked like the loose horse hampered him more than what it actually did -but u cant fault the jock -ed is a great animal and his big day will come im sure of it -just unforunate to be racing in the same era as ks but i think one day he will reverse placings -