STT variance or not?

dvdfan

Not too worried but started myself a challenge playing $20 stt's on FT 32 hands ago and i went back through all my OOM finishes and looked up the crucial hand that i lost most my chips or got knocked out on. A few silly ones but seems to be alot of bad beats but its too small a sample to be sure so i said i post for views:

I just copied and pasted the comments from the 2+2 sng spreadsheet for the 20 hands i was Out Of the Money on from my first 32 sng's on Full Tilt 9 Handed $20 games. Im down $38 but im not worried really as ive had bad runs before but after reviewing my hands i was surprised how many times ive had bad beats. There is some bad play too but not much and also just because i got all in with 2 pair dosent mean it was good play but im just looking to see is this over the top or pretty general.

Lastly and this is the big question i have. Ive noticed too many times i seem to be busting out in 4-6th pushing all in with sometimes questionable hands but im at the stage of its either fold or all in (m of 7 or less for instance) should i be more patient here or continue to play aggressive and risk being blinded out. I know this is a general question and the blinds and stacks need to be assesed before giving an answer but i feel im getting called too much and even when ive the best hand im getting outdrawn alot so maybe its just paronia.

2 Typical example being 5 left on the table, blinds of 50/100 ive 1000 stack, 2 more stacks are 1200 and 1800 and 2 big stacks, what should my range be...any 2 or a bit tighter , now what if the blind structure is 80/160 whats my pushing range. Im obviously on about open pushing here. Blinds increase every 6 mins 50/100 - 60/120 - 80/160 - 100/200 - 120/240 etc etc

So anyway heres the list of my 20 exit/crucuial hand comments

kk Lost to AK triple Aces preflop
2 Pair beaten by a straight
AK Beaten by QQ preflop
JJ outdrawn by 66 preflop
Got all in with 2 pair and got outdrew by better 2 pair on river
QQ lost to KK preflop
Card Dead Pushed short with Kqo to lose
Pushed all in with TT beaten by KTo Preflop
Pushed all in over a big stack raise with 6To when mildly short - Ludicrous
TT beaten by AA preflop
Pushed All in on 1 card straight draw on paired board - Bad Move
Missed Open Straight Flush Draw
Madness, raised 5x with 76s and forced to call shortie all in to leave me shortie
Pushed with T7s shortstacked and got called
JJ outdrawn by 66 preflop - AGAIN
Triple 888 Beaten by AAA preflop i.e my 88 vs his AA
Pushed all in shortstacked with 76s and got called
QQ Outdrawn by 33 On The River
Pushed all in shortstacked on flush draw - called and lost
Re-Raised with Open straight flush draw and got put all in and missed

RoundTower

I don't think this helps much it just helps you whinge.

sikes

do you use sng power tools? if not get your hands on it.

Also, because peoples calling range are wider you range has to be narrower. You will find that edges in STTs are getting so small and these pushing and folding situations are reaching a Nash Equilibrium where people who are pushing and calling are both playing perfect poker.

dvdfan

RoundTower wrote:

I don't think this helps much it just helps you whinge.

I just wanted some advice in general wheter im getting all in too much with marginal hands. By posting my beats you can get an idea of the hands im getting all in with and beaten with, if i was to post the details of all the hand history in the thread nobody would have the patients to read it. I also posted them because i wanted to know was this a high precentage of outdraws/bad beats in general or can i expect this every now and then. Im only down 2 buyins from 32 games, 20 OOM yet it seems like theres an awful lot of variance there.

This is a genuine question as i want to see do i need to change my strategy before continuing and ive put my stt games on hold until i decide. My other option is to keep donating to FT players so i posted this to learn. If youve mistaken this for a BB thread fair enough but ive played lots of stt's before and have seen my bankroll swing from $300 to $1500 and back down close enough to $300 again so a $38 downswing isnt bothering me but i want to nip things in the bud if there is a pattern emerging. I used to play Tribeca and im adjusting to the new structures and looking to learn:)

dvdfan

sikes wrote:

do you use sng power tools? if not get your hands on it.

Also, because peoples calling range are wider you range has to be narrower. You will find that edges in STTs are getting so small and these pushing and folding situations are reaching a Nash Equilibrium where people who are pushing and calling are both playing perfect poker.

Whats this sng power tools and where can i find it??

Maybe i should post a few of the hands i pushed all in with marginal hands in seperate threads, no point in posting the AA Vs KK because they make there own decisions but maybe im not making the correct decisions based on the stack sizes, position, starting hands etc so i might post a couple later obviously not all 20:D

sikes

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/

have a look through that and spend time learning the various bits to it. And put the hands through it and it will tell you if it was good/bad

dvdfan

Thats great sikes. Thanks a million ive signed up for it now. I hate doing ev calculations so this takes the hassle out of it and i can review more hands.

Is there any other great tools im missing out on that could be valuable to an stt player, surprised ive never heard about this before. I play Full Tilt if that makes a difference

nicnicnic

here's a few decent posts first two are on variance second ones more general but a good read as is the third

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=2372560&page=0&view=&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8449205&an=0&page=0#Post8449205


http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=2302700&page=&view=&sb=5&o=14&fpart

nicnicnic

sikes wrote:

do you use sng power tools? if not get your hands on it.

Also, because peoples calling range are wider you range has to be narrower. You will find that edges in STTs are getting so small and these pushing and folding situations are reaching a Nash Equilibrium where people who are pushing and calling are both playing perfect poker.

would you consider this to be the case for just say the $100 + buy-ins and maybe mostly on stars. I know the ones i play on crypto haven't improved over the last 9 months that Ive been playing them, if any thing the players have gotten worse recently.

dvdfan

Some good threads there nicnic which makes my variance questions seem ridiculous but the thread was more to see wheter im pushing too much with marginal hands, sikes powertools suggestions should solve that question. Thanks folks

sikes

nicnicnic wrote:

would you consider this to be the case for just say the $100 + buy-ins and maybe mostly on stars. I know the ones i play on crypto haven't improved over the last 9 months that Ive been playing them, if any thing the players have gotten worse recently.

I haven't played much at all on stars but hope to play their turbos for the next while but i played a bit the last few weeks and i thought the games were massively different. Perhaps its only stars and ftp, where the stronger american grinders play. Obviously the play is still on the whole terrible at the 27$ - $36, but you have to find out the multitablers, and adjust cos once you get heads up or start push botting with them they are snapping you off a lot more lightly.

Do you play turbos or regular? Might have a look at crypto if they have turbos.

Also reading different things, i just don't see it worth anyones time playing higher than the 100-200 on stars, the player pool is so expert and small in comparison that it would be tough to beat the rake.

nicnicnic

sikes wrote:

Do you play turbos or regular? Might have a look at crypto if they have turbos.

Also reading different things, i just don't see it worth anyones time playing higher than the 100-200 on stars, the player pool is so expert and small in comparison that it would be tough to beat the rake.

I've probably been reading alot of the same stuff as yourself and very much feel the same way about tackling the $100+ on stars they just dont seem attractive.

I just play the 6pacs which the blinds increase every 12 hands there's also thunders which are very popular where the blinds go up every 6 hands, traffic is better in these. my average entry is about $60. but I'm not playing to many atm. I'm at something else atm but in two months intend going back at them and I reckon i can pull $7000 a month at this level of entry playing between 6/8 tables for about 100 hours a month including bonuses+rakeback on crypto.