88 UTG(Stars 1-2NL)

cardshark202

Villain is a good aggressive regular, playing about 25/21. Most of the hands we've logged together have involved me playing pretty tag. Button is a weak-loose player, he's **** basically, and not a factor in this hand really.
I've raised the last five pots and won either preflop or postflop without showdown.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($125.30)
BB ($432.60)
cardshark202 ($200)
MP ($238.30)
Button ($44.95)

Preflop: cardshark202 is UTG with 8, 8.
cardshark202 raises to $8, 1 fold, Button calls $8, 1 fold, BB raises to $32, cardshark202 raises to $200.

El Stuntman

and he calls with 99, lol

what's the point of this thread

sikes

did you buy in short?

phantom_lord

i don;t like it anyway!


why do u only have $200?

cardshark202

eh 1-2NL

phantom_lord

cardshark202 wrote:

eh 1-2NL

I've raised the last five pots and won either preflop or postflop without showdown.

surely you should more than 200?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

cardshark202

I think the point of this thread is self-explanatory. Maybe some opinions?

cardshark202

Oh yeah I had taken a hit and was down to $170 and had forgotten to top up, I had 200 exactly by sheer coincidence. Sorry

sikes

i like it. you dont need much to raise, and it looks like the BB is trying to isolate a weak player for cheap and put a squeeze on you.

hows the trying to win every hand working out for you in aussie land, i hear they have the same mentality!

ianmc38

Meh. He'd need to be squeezing alot / calling light (22-77) for this to be good.

HiCloy

I don't like, I think you're too deep for this. Back of envelope maths:

Say he raises with 77+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs+ (he has got a PFR of 21)
He calls your push with QQ+, AK

The following will happen:

39% of the time he folds, you win $49
22% of the time you call and win, you win $217
39% of the time you call and lose, you lose $192

So on average you lose an extra $8.32
If you had $150 and his ranges were the same it'd be profitable.

This presumes the button will fold - if he's serious value then it might be ok

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

sikes

i would think his range is much wider, considering BUTTON is a calling station donk so most hands with show down value and he will be getting a good price against him when hero folds, which he has to think he will a huge % of the time because a) hero is usually tag and could be out of his comfort zone and playing too many hands b) the raise is effectively to 45$ due to the shortstack behind.

will have a look in a few minutes at pokerstove so i can doctor numbers to suit me.

cardshark202

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Well, is he ever making a bad call with something you are in great shape against? Like 22 - 77, or A / <8? How many more unpaired over card combinations will he call with if this is the sixth hand in succession that you are playing aggressively?

I don't think he ever folds a better overpair, and I'm wondering why we would like to get a buy - in over the line when if we are called we are no better than a marginal favourite?

I'm just wondering with the above, and I would actually like to hear Reggie's thinking behind the shove.

Villain is a good player, hes not calling with 22!

Gholimoli

i think this thread is silly.

cardshark202

Gholimoli wrote:

i think this thread is silly.

why?

padraig_f

HiCloy wrote:

I don't like, I think you're too deep for this. Back of envelope maths:

Say he raises with 77+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs+ (he has got a PFR of 21)
He calls your push with QQ+, AK

I think your maths are incorrect, using the same raising/calling ranges of the opponent, I calculate it to be a +EV play:

QQ+,AK = 18+16 = 34 combos
77+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs = 43+12+24+4 = 83 combos

call percentage: 34/83 = 41%

he folds: 59% : .59 * +$41 = +$28.90
he calls and you win: (41% * 36%) = 15% : .15 * +$217 = +$32.50
he calls and you lose: (41% * 64%) = 26% : .26 * -$192 = -$50

EV: $28.90 + $32.50 - $50 = +$11.40

valor

This guy definitely calls lighter than QQ+ and AK, given the history

This hand really depends on what level he is thinking, and what level he thinks you are thinking on, and what he thinks you think etc etc

Basically he has to be squeezing with total air here for it to be good, and I dont think he is because its such an "obvious" spot to squeeze given the history of the last 5 hands. If he can still have 109s or w/e here, then ok. Also, it depends if he thinks you will re shove light after taking down the last 5 pots etc

I think his definite calling range here is 1010+ and AQs+ against which we are 33%, which obviously isnt good. He can also call with 99 or AJ etc. There is also a possibility of getting looked up by a worse hand [77] given history

I think its a reasonbly OK play but only if you are sure he can have rags here, otherwise it just sucks

padraig_f

valor wrote:

I think his definite calling range here is 1010+ and AQs+ against which we are 33%, which obviously isnt good. He can also call with 99 or AJ etc. There is also a possibility of getting looked up by a worse hand [77] given history

If that's his calling range for a full stack, then his raising range is much wider than the one given. He's 25/21, he raises a lot more than he calls.

I like the play, I think the villain is squeezing a good part of the time. He has no-one left to act behind him, he knows the button probably doesn't have much and that the OP probably doesn't either. I'm not as aggressive as 25/21, but against a player who was playing that aggressively, my reraising range would be pretty wide.

Goodluck2me

his re-raising range has to be quite light. you have won the last 5 hands and is probably tryin to send you a message. Regardless of how many times you have raised if his notes on you are that you are TAG then you might just be going through a sick run of hands and should most likely not get stacked with AQ-, and TT- im not sure about JJ but obv QQ+ and AKs+ calls. Doesn everyone think that AQs and JJ calls?
I think also you have to count in the amount if times he re-raises with air into your ev calculations for it to be accurate.

cardshark202

I was 100% certain I was getting called by JJ+ and AK, 50/50 as to whether AQ/TT/99 were calling me, and maybe 25% that I was called by 77. I expected his range to be quite wide here, as just because its such an obvious spot to squeeze does not mean he wont squeeze here, as he expects me to fold most of the time anyway. He has not seen me make a similiar move like this in our last 1k hands or so though he is probably aware I'm capable of it. On the whole though, I expected his re-raise - folding range to be wide enough to make this play profitable, even though I felt it was probably a marginal one.