88 facing raise on bubble $20 stt

dvdfan

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t80/t160
4 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1060
Button: t3145
dvdfan: t4295
BB: t5000

Pre-flop: (4 players) dvdfan is SB with 7d 7h
UTG folds, Button raises to t480, dvdfan ???

Im multitabling so ive no great read other than its a typical bubble situation people open raising and claiming pots uncontested. No ones got madly out of line though

sikes

easy push.

dvdfan

Is it really an easy push. Im 2nd biggest stack and although i want 1st here folding here might just be better imo. UTG has a M of 4 and will be on auto push, the BB has still to act and i think if i push and get called here im going to be racing against the likes of AK (55/45 in my favour) and a big dog to any overpair (80/20 in his favour) theres only 5 pocket pairs i beat and 7 that beat me. I can easily fold here a pick a better spot because i have nothing invested. If i get called all in here and lose im going to have an M of 4 myself.

Opinions??

Taking from Pokerstove. These are the hands i expect villain to call me with if i push

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

636,977,088 games 0.110 secs 5,790,700,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.794% 62.60% 00.19% 398772156 1210188.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 37.206% 37.02% 00.19% 235784556 1210188.00 { 77 }

If i think he might also call me with 99-22 aswell then:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,078,751,520 games 0.094 secs 11,476,080,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.181% 51.37% 00.81% 554121420 8781138.00 { 22+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 47.819% 47.01% 00.81% 507067824 8781138.00 { 77 }

cooker3

He is on the button, his range his any 2 pretty much, you also have huge folding equity because of this and also because utg is so low that your opponant will probably not want to risk his chips when he can fold to money which people probably would at that level.
So easy push

sikes

you push because he cant call with most of his holdings because UTG will be out soon and for him to go out on the bubble is awful.

He will probably call AA, KK. QQ maybe. Everything else he must fold if he is decent, if he is calling with other hands, he is crap and as such a fold could be right.

TheRock

Is this 6, 9 or 10 handed SNG? I.e paying top 2 or 3?

Not much help, but it depends. It's one of those decisions that would be easier if you weren't multitabling and had some sort of info on him.

Think if you had had slightly less chips or was a level or two later this would be an easy push. But at this level with your stack I'm not sure.
Dont think I'd call OOP.

Would noone consider just the reraise to about 1,200??
If he's just stealin he'll probably lay it down as the 1,200 may look stronger then the push. If he comes back allin you have a decision, if you fold you still have plenty of chips. I dont think the blinds to stack ratio make this and allin or fold just yet.

TheRock

Just read your blog dvdfan, good luck with that. I must follow it.
Thinking about something similar for the summer when I have time myself.

Any particular reason why you chose FullTilt? Played STT on most sites but never there.

dvdfan

TheRock wrote:

Is this 6, 9 or 10 handed SNG? I.e paying top 2 or 3?

Not much help, but it depends. It's one of those decisions that would be easier if you weren't multitabling and had some sort of info on him.

Think if you had had slightly less chips or was a level or two later this would be an easy push. But at this level with your stack I'm not sure.
Dont think I'd call OOP.

Would noone consider just the reraise to about 1,200??
If he's just stealin he'll probably lay it down as the 1,200 may look stronger then the push. If he comes back allin you have a decision, if you fold you still have plenty of chips. I dont think the blinds to stack ratio make this and allin or fold just yet.

Good point in that hes on the button so hes raising range is pretty wide, thats not what im worried about its hes calling range if i push all in and as anyone knows playing $20 stts theres a reasonable chance someones calling with AK,AA-JJ and maybe AQ depending on the player. Of course a solid player will only call AA-QQ but i have no info to suggest either way and you can expect a few solid player but more donks at this level.

With that in mind i think The Rocks line is best here, even if the buttons range is wide the BB has still to act, hes only calling my all in if he has a monster (or at least he should be) so a RR to 1200 or so seems like a good line, if he pushes i now have a better idea of the strength of his hand. If he smooth calls im check/folding flop or turn unless i hit my set. This would leave me with 3,000 chips and an M of 12 with the shortstack in trouble and imo would have close to the same effect without putting my ITM in jeopardy and still giving me a good shot at 1st.

BTW i folded here but i must admit when i posted this i taught i would get a slot of split advice but the majority so far seem swayed to push. I did go on to win the tournament though

dvdfan

TheRock wrote:

Just read your blog dvdfan, good luck with that. I must follow it.
Thinking about something similar for the summer when I have time myself.

Any particular reason why you chose FullTilt? Played STT on most sites but never there.

Should be good to keep my discipline, wont make for great reading though but may be of interest to people who are starting out playing stt's to see what kind of variance and ROI's are involved.

I like the structure on FT, it gives you plenty of time to play early on and pick up valuable chips for when your on the bubble. I loved the tribeca structure and FT takes a bit of getting used to but i definetely find it strongly favours good players vs luck. Plus i got a $600 signup bonus and 27% rakeback so that'll help too:)

sikes

you should push or fold.

why do you want to raise to 1200? so you can fold to a push?

you are overthinking the situation.

dvdfan

sikes wrote:

you should push or fold.

why do you want to raise to 1200? so you can fold to a push?

you are overthinking the situation.

Just taught that RR to this amount puts over 1/3 of his stack at risk if he flat calls, if he does i now know hes a very good hand, if he raises all in then i also put him on a strong hand.

Currently as was previously said he could have any 2 cards raising on the button, im buying information here before i commit all my stack with the BB still to act and also still have good folding equity. If you were the opponent what hand would you put me on here if i re-raised you?? If he does RR or call and i miss flop im still in a very strong position, if i had KK or AA here i would probably RR here aswell so this is something he would have to consider. I feel this gives me close to the same folding equity without putting as many chips at risk. I take your advice though, just trying to learn as much from the hand as i can so i can make a better decision the next time.

sikes

depends on how you have played these situations before, so i dont know what you could have.

if you are folding to a push then you should fold becuase the chips lost are going to the one player you can abuse in this bubble situation. By folding you will be the next short stack, and as a result your hands are tied until the bubble bursts.

You want to end the hand right now.

Also your raise is going to be so exploitable by the BB. In fact, I would push everything from the BB if i saw you play like this before.

dvdfan

sikes wrote:

Also your raise is going to be so exploitable by the BB. In fact, I would push everything from the BB if i saw you play like this before.

Do you mean if he sees me RR and then fold to the all in. True but like i said AA-KK and even AK could be played the same way except im not going to fold. Its not a situation that would pop up enough for him to have a good enough read to push any 2 after this and i could use this to trap him if i did have AA-KK in a future hand because he thinks he can probably push me of the hand.

I sometimes do this when im playing heads up stacks premitted, ill RR with nothing and show the bluff a couple of times and when i do hit the hand and RR hell push all in.

But my main point here is "if we think the button has a wide range here" then a re-raise achieves the following:

***Puts his stack under severe pressure 1/3 of his stack to call leaving him with an M of just 8 while i will have an M of 12.
***Forces him to fold a wide range of hands
***He can still fold and have an M of 11 now with a shortstack under pressure
***Hes pushing range here if i RR should be no different than hes calling range if i push. What hand could you see him pushing with here that he wouldnt call with?
***I invest 1/4 less chips to achieve the same result here winning 640 chips.

I still think under this scenario that the following is the best in this order:

1 Fold
2 Re-Raise
3 Push

sikes

dvdfan wrote:

Do you mean if he sees me RR and then fold to the all in. True but like i said AA-KK and even AK could be played the same way except im not going to fold. Its not a situation that would pop up enough for him to have a good enough read to push any 2 after this and i could use this to trap him if i did have AA-KK in a future hand because he thinks he can probably push me of the hand.

When you move up stakes, player pool decreases and you play less tables. This is when reads like this are used. It really doesn't matter if you play AA this way, because you are playing a load of different hands like this and you give the BB so much FE. If I run into you with AA/KK when this happens the so be it, but i know you will be folding everything else.

dvdfan wrote:

I sometimes do this when im playing heads up stacks premitted, ill RR with nothing and show the bluff a couple of times and when i do hit the hand and RR hell push all in.

Thats a completely different situation, This is the bubble of a STT. Also showing hands heads up, imo, is really pointless.

dvdfan wrote:

But my main point here is "if we think the button has a wide range here" then a re-raise achieves the following:

***Puts his stack under severe pressure 1/3 of his stack to call leaving him with an M of just 8 while i will have an M of 12.

You dont want him to call because our hand is 50/50 against his range. There is about 1/6 our stack out there that we are going to pick up a ridiculously huge amount of time. I want to minimise any chance there is that this hand is getting to see a flop.

dvdfan wrote:

***Forces him to fold a wide range of hands

***He can still fold and have an M of 11 now with a shortstack under pressure

***Hes pushing range here if i RR should be no different than hes calling range if i push. What hand could you see him pushing with here that he wouldnt call with?

All of these things are achieved by pushing.
He might think he has FE. You have left chips behind, after all this is a 20$ STT. I still dont know if you are planning on calling the push.

dvdfan wrote:

***I invest 1/4 less chips to achieve the same result here winning 640 chips.

I still have no idea if you are folding to a push.

There is nothing here that points to a raise being better. You will be exploited at the higher levels when you meet the same players if you play like this.

You may fold the best hand when he pushes and you are left in a bubble situation where you cant put anybody under pressure.

dvdfan

For what its worth i ran this simulation through SnG Wiz and it says pushing is +EV thats assuming im correctly put him on a raising range of 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KQo+,KTs+ or a looser range and his calling my all in range is TT+,AKo,AQs+ Then my Equity for Pushing is 32.91% and my Equity for Folding is 32.18% A Difference of +0.73 in favour of pushing which makes it a standard push.

Considering hes on the button that range is well plausable since i had no reads. However if hes raising range was 44+,A9+,A5s+,KJs+ or tighter then it becomes -EV

I couldnt quite understand why folding wasnt corrrect here until i started using these SNGPT and SNGWiz tools. I now understand that even though i might have 68o there are situations that you should just push not because you think youve the best hand and not because your sure you wont get called but because for the amount of times that the villain wont have a good enough hand to call outweighs the times he will call and win.

Its also very clear to me now how someone who sees someone RR and then fold to the all in would appear weak and it would become profitable to push any cards against him because he needs to have a range in the top 3-4% to call. Im now taking advantage of this thanks to them tools.:)