Tourney hand from Green Joker Poker 1k Main Event(November)

Captain Tom

I remember this hand quite well because i was really unsure afterwards what the right line to take is in this spot.

Event was deepstacked(15k) with a great blind structure.

i had been playing aggressive early on,winning a number of small pots,and was up to ~17k.

Villian in this hand has also been playing aggressively and has been caught in a few small bluffs.He has also commented on my aggressive play a couple of times.my read was villian was decent but not a great player.he sits on ~14k.

Anyway second level i raise to 325 with 99 from ep(blinds 50/100).villian calls either in the c/o or on the button.

Flop:345 rainbow.

i bet 550 into a pot of 725.Villian raises to 1850.

Here's what i was thinking:

1.I dont like folding here considering previous history.i was fully expecting villian to fight for this pot.folding is really bad here imo.

2.i dont like raising here because this seemingly folds out worse hands and takes away villians opportunity to bluff.

3.I dont like calling here because this makes the pot quite substantial and i'll be oop to a tricky player with numerous scare cards in the deck.

Fwiw im positive villian would reraise pf with TT+ and is capable of raising the flop with 66-88/A5s/A6s or air given his perception of me.

thoughts?

cooker3

Wow, that was a pretty tough situation you found yourself in.

Calling is not an option for me as your oop and pretty much every card is a scare card bar a 9, if he bets the turn then you pretty much have to fold.

I would likely raise to around 5500. If he pushes then I fold, if he calls then I cry and hope a high card hits.

I could easily find a fold here as well because calling or raising are not exactly ideal options, it really is a bitch of a decision.

sikes

cooker3 wrote:

I would likely raise to around 5500. If he pushes then I fold, if he calls then I cry and hope a high card hits.

yuck.

call now and reevaluate the turn.

phantom_lord

call and check the turn.

raising is the worst of the three options imo.

RoundTower

call and check any turn

DeVore

Reraise him to about 4k if you are sure he would have raised with TT+ preflop. Any further action after that will be for stacks and you should be ready to play for them based on your read...

Calling and checking the turn seems like you are trying to illicit a bluff from him. It seems a dangerous play because you give him free cards when you are fairly sure you are ahead! Im not sure I like where you will be when an over card comes and you check into a bet by him.

Reraising him may force out better hands but might also stop him hitting or representing an over card. Theres nothing wrong with betting when you are fairly sure you are ahead you know!

DeV.

cooker3

Ok, so far you all seem to like calling. What card you hoping to hit?
9 is pretty much only decent card, everything else is pretty lousy.
Do you call any bet on the turn?

Assuming the op is right in his read, he doesn't have an overpair so we lose to a straight or a set so yes he pretty much folds anything we beat but we do charge him to hit his draws and also it's incredibly hard to call a turn bet imo so it's hard to catch him out if he does bluff the turn.

The pot is nice pot to win so i want to take it now and are happy to take it down in this situation.

shoutman

Firstly, I would bet more from early position at least X4 bb, and I too am with cooker on this one, I'd be happy to take it down here, if he calls I shut down the hand thinking i'm beat and whatever he has he isnt folding.

Hectorjelly

This is an interesting hand, and a perfect example of one of the big mistakes players make in their thinking. It really makes no difference if the guy is bluffing or not, what we have here is an unprofitable situation. Without a specific read folding here is by far the best option. We have committed a very small % of our stack to the pot, but in order to get to a showdown or find out if our hand is good we are going to need to far too many chips, and the more chips that go into the pot the less chance there is of our hand being good. A reraise here to 4k is technically awful poker, if we get called or raised we pretty much have to dunp our hand, but theres only about 3.5k in there. If we could spend 4k here to find out if our hand was good or not I would glady take it, but its not as simple as that. If we make it 4k, then if he is any good he will push all in with any 1pair/draw combo hand he has, because our hand is so clearly telegraphed as a overpair and he should know how hard it will be to call 10k more. I wouldnt be happy calling all in with AA here, never mind 99. Importantly, we have no idea of his bluffing frequency, and we have no idea if he has a real hand or not. I definitely wouldnt rule out the possibility that he slowed played AA or KK, and I dont think he is going go fold them. The risk reward factor here is very bad, due to the stack sizes.

To sum up, once he makes that raise when we are out of position with a lot of money left to go into the pot and a very vunerable hand folding is by far and away the best option. If our read is that he will bluff too much in spots like this then call the flop, but I think thats a bad idea until we have a better idea of how we plays in spots like this. We give up very little by folding here anyway, our equity in the pot against any normal raising range is very low and all we really beat is 88 or a total bluff.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

RoundTower

Hectorjelly wrote:

Without a specific read folding here is by far the best option.

Hector here we have a pretty specific read in that he's aggressive and wants to play back at us with a wide range.

valor

If I went into this hand with this read, I would'nt bet the flop

But as played, I just fold, despite the read. It will be too hard to play oop with 47 thousand scare cards on the turn

Gus Ivey

id just muck it simply because im OOP if i call and a raise is just too risky

F*** him if hes bluffing, he picked a brilliant spot to do it, keep an eye on him and wait for a better spot

Captain Tom

RoundTower wrote:

Hector here we have a pretty specific read in that he's aggressive and wants to play back at us with a wide range.

this is precisely why i posted this hand.i was very confident in my read in this spot.

hectorj if it helps you were 1 spot to my left and villian was a nothern irishman about 3 seats to your left.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

yuck hand to be in, for some strange reason i think i seen this hand Captain was it a well built guy with poker tattoo? strange question i know but if it was i will post later to let you know what you are up against as i play regularly with him.

I agree with HJ's line on this you could be up against an OP or a drawing hand plus there is a lot of scare cards to follow which will probably make you fold in this spot. You must take into consideration it is early on in the tournament with a good structure and starting stack no need to risk chips in this hand wait for a better spot.

BigCityBanker

HJ has hit the nail on the head and its the same nail id be hitting.

Goodluck2me

i like a call here, not every turn card is a scare card he is highly unlikely to improve with the turn card. i call here, and sometimes bet the turn.i think folding here is a little weak considering his range, i also think there should be now way we are playing for stacks in this hand, who gets it all in for 150BB with a mid pair?
maybe a better line would be to call the raise and check call it down provided no other new dangers arrive, like a flush hitting or the board pairing. sometimes you have to make hard calls in poker tournaments and you should always go with your reads, otherwise what is the point in them? this far away fields are green -better spot syndrome will make you lose ev in profitable situations as you strive for tht one perfect spot.
if you think your ahead call, if you think your behind fold. simple

Also i dont think there is any perfect answer in this its read and tell dependant and you really have to be there, all we can say is what we would do against an ABC type player. Answers should be more along the lines of Do A X% and do B Y% imo.

Goodluck2me

Hectorjelly wrote:

This is an interesting hand, and a perfect example of one of the big mistakes players make in their thinking. It really makes no difference if the guy is bluffing or not, what we have here is an unprofitable situation

how is unprofitable if he is bluffing?
Valor has explained the error of my ways... point taken.

DeVore

HJ, the OP gave us the read in this situation. I agree with you about folding but if we were all playing this hand in whatever situation we wanted to make up in our heads, then I wouldnt be in the situation in the first place

Given the read that the opponent has a very wide range and believes we may be just being aggressive with our initial bet, then his raise seems reasonable in that position with that thinking. Now, he might have hit a set/jammy-straight but otherwise we are relatively safe. I agree that folding may be the better part of valour and if I woke up in the OPs body without prior knowledge of how I got there, I might well fold. But given the reads, folding kinda smells of weakness...

DeV.

cardshark202

If villain is any good, our hand is behind his range, however, hes probably **** yet our hand still sucks in this spot. I would continue with JJ here, TT is marginal, 99 is a fold imo

Captain Tom

cardshark202 wrote:

If villain is any good, our hand is behind his range, however, hes probably **** yet our hand still sucks in this spot. I would continue with JJ here, TT is marginal, 99 is a fold imo

considering the fact that i was certain he would reraise pf with TT+ arent 99/TT/JJ essentially the same hand here?

cardshark202

no because there are less over cards with JJ and poker is a game of uncertanties

RoundTower

also this spot really should be profitable for you, you have a good hand. If you are up against a guy who you know is going to have a go at you, you are giving up way too much by folding a good hand in this spot. You are going to get to this kind of spot quite a lot (you raise, someone calls, you bet the flop) so when you actually have something you want to make the most of it.

ollyk1

What do people think of the OP's leading out on the flop here??

I think this has inflated the pot and lead to this problem to some extent. I mean if we expect this guy to "fight" for the pot on the flop I think check call is the line here.

Is this too weak in general? or does it disguise the hand a little and maybe the OP gets to a showdown for ~3k and gets some money in good and controls the pot size.

LuckyLloyd

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sikes

i can call the flop getting ~3/1 because players often try to buy free cards on their draws. Let him have the free cards, yeah he is getting the right price to chase, but folding here is giving up too much.

if the turn goes check/check then we might be able to pick up off a bluff on the river too.

How would those who fold, play A6 here?

Ste05

I think this is quite an interesting hand. I also think HJ has pretty much spelled out why a fold here is the only really viable option as played.

But I don't think leading here is that great, especially against an aggressive opponent. This flop is just far too scary for us, it misses a huge % of our range, we have the absolute bottom of the range of hands that can continue and we will be playing in an inflated pot OOP with less info. than our opponent who can successfully represent a much wider range of hands than us, most of which are better than the best hand we can represent (AA)

If we continue on in the hand and more chips go into the middle along the way, the only hand we'll be able to beat by the River will be a bluff and it may very well be a bluff with the best hand after he spikes an overcard.

Captain Tom

not sure how much it matters but if anyone's curious in the end i reraised to 4.7k.

i was almost certain i had the best hand and was pretty confident i could take this pot down on the flop.i didnt want to flat call as i thought villian would just take the pot away from me on the turn/river.i didnt want to fold given history.

villian called.turn was an 8 and i checked with the intention of check folding.Villian quickly checked looking very pleased.

River was a queen.i checked with the intention of check calling.villian checked i showed 99 and he mucked.

the arguments for folding flop here are strong but i still think folding in this spot with given history is too weak.i think check calling flop makes this hand much easier for me.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Captain Tom

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Villain sounds brutal.

he was decent i think he just viewed me as overly laggy.i think he probably had 56s and thought he had some showdown value once it was checked down.

ianmc38

I think this is an excellent hand for analysis and think HJs advice is good in general terms.

If you have a read regarding his over aggressive tendencies then I think calling and giving him some rope is the best line. I think raising is the worst of all 3 options.

For me folding >>> calling >>> raising

Captain Tom

ianmc38 wrote:

I think this is an excellent hand for analysis and think HJs advice is good in general terms.

If you have a read regarding his over aggressive tendencies then I think calling and giving him some rope is the best line. I think raising is the worst of all 3 options.

For me folding >>> calling >>> raising

i dont neccessarily like or agree with my play here btw.in this spot i was really against calling though because i beleived villian was capable of firing multiple barrells and i wasnt prepared to stack off here with 99.id only call flop here if i intended to call down if the board bricks off.

ocallagh

It's a horrible spot to be in. We've all been in it. I agree with HJ and Lloyd in that raising is by far the worst option. In terms of folding or calling... I regularly fold this hand, but in this situation you have history with the guy and have both been aggressive. It's costing you 1300 or so to call. I think I call here and I'm not afraid to let it go on the turn if he comes out firing again, but I might call him if I think he's firing a 2nd barrell. If I really don't feel happy about the hand on the turn I fold. I don't mind when people think they can take me off pots with two barrells.

Gholimoli

nothing much really to add that has not been said.
i think leading this flop is bad due to deep stacks.

as played i think raising is horrible regardless of the read.

Goodluck2me

Gholimoli wrote:

as played i think raising is horrible regardless of the read.

how?? you may aswell play blindfolded with and ipod if you are ignoring all of your reads.

phantom_lord

goodluck2me wrote:

how?? you may aswell play blindfolded with and ipod if you are ignoring all of your reads.

it's not about the reads....it's about the raise. raise is horrible full stop.

Captain Tom

i dont mean to drag this thread on but just wondering something.to all those who think folding here is best,assuming my read is correct,how often do you expect 99 to be ahead here?

given reads on villian,id expect to be ahead here around 70-80% of the time,and therefore folding is pretty awful imo.

also lloyd i wouldnt ever show my hand in this spot.if a similar hand occurs,i wont know whether a player will reraise me light considering i have folded an overpair on a relatively safe board,or wont reraise light because i have shown that im raising with legitimate hands.all this does is cloud my thought process.

Hectorjelly

Haha, now I think about it I remember this exact hand. I remember folowing the action, then seeing your hand and being amazed it was good. When he called your flop raise one of you really should have a better hand! I thought you had AA or KK.

I think in your shoes I would of called the flop raise as I agree with your read on him. I think the choice is between folding and calling, and its pretty marginal one way or the other. One point I was trying to make in my last post that imnot sure I go across, is that sometimes just having the best hand isnt enough. If he had any balls he would of won the pot, your line only worked because he wasnt great.

Did we play any hands together?

Captain Tom

well we played a number of pots p/f because you 3-bet me about 237 times.i was kicking myself for several weeks afterwards for how i played against you.i played pretty awful on the day in general and being oop against you certainly didnt help.

there was one very interesting hand actually but i cant remember bet/stack sizes so well otherwise id post it for sure.

it basically went like this.blind vs blind confrontation.i limp p/f with eiter 57c or 68c you check.flop is either JTx or QTx with 2 clubs and x gives me a pair.bet/call.turn offsuit K.i check raise you call very quickly.river is broadway club that puts 4 card straight on the board(TJQKx 3 clubs).i check you immediatly bet 5k into a roughly 5k pot.i call and you show Kx of clubs.

the more i thought about the hand afterwards the more i disliked my call.when i c/raised the turn and you called so quick i thought it was highly likely you had a flush draw.i only c/raised in the first place because i thought you were pushing me around too much.on the river i couldnt imagine you betting so big with Ax(or 2 pair obviously) as it when it gets called you're either splitting or losing.i remember calling because i felt my hand was reasonably well disguised and hoping you had a smaller flush and were trying to get me to call with Ax(although this was highly unlikely).i think maybe bet/fold about 3k would have been better.fwiw you asked me if i had AQ afterwards.

Hectorjelly

I disagree about the turn check raise, when I call that turn check raise quicklyI will never just have a lone draw. A quick call for me (and I assume others) would mean I dont have any choice about my action. A bad player calling quickly will be a draw, not someone who knows what he was doing. My hand was far too strong to pass, and I didnt see the point of raising so I called. Thinking now its obviously a mistake to call so quickly, I should of pretended I was thinking about it!

When you called quite quickly on the river I thought AQ was your most likely hand, most people would of bet on the river with a flush or possibly raised me - I think you played that hand fine and did well to lose so little, two aggressive players rivering a 2 card flush in a blind battle will usually end with fireworks.

Bet fold is fine, you save 2k, but you leave yourself open to making a big mistake, either folding the best hand or deciding at the last second to call my all in. Also 5k is about the max I can bet there, I may bet smaller. Actually the big disadvantage to check calling is that I will often check behind on the river with a hand that can call a bet. I certainly didnt think you had a flush.

Captain Tom

sorry i didnt make myself clear.i didnt put you on a bare flush draw,i was just reasonably certain my flushdraw was dead.

looking back my turn c/raise was pretty awful.i think i may have been trying to get you off Qx or Tx.

i didnt think a bet would get called on the river by a worse hand because i thought it was unlikely you had Ax and was pretty sure you would fold 2 pair.i recall checking the river very quickly which i never do with important decisions.this was a mistake.

id like to think given my read i could have folded to a 3k-4k bet on the river but this would have been hard given our history.the 5k was essentially a pot sized bet and represented a bluff quite well and was probably the main reason i called you down.

SpermManJelly

Hectorjelly wrote:

A bad player calling quickly will be a draw, not someone who knows what he was doing.

And we Jellys always know what we're doing,as a jelly speaking to another jelly....:eek:


Sperm Man Jelly.