Overbet Favourites

Colonel Sanders

Whats really apparent this yr is the amount of favourites being overbet by the racing public. Some have won some have lost but the long and the short of it is the following prices looked appalling before the races:

Amaretto rose 2/1 (possibly deserved to be fav but was far too short)
Heads on the ground 5/2 (fair enough it won but a short price nonetheless)
Well Chief evs (too many question marks to say he'd a 50% chance of winning)
Mad Fish 4/1 (I knew it would be punted with The Willie Mullins factor)
and I'd even go as far as to say denma was too short at 6/5 in a big field race. In fairness ruby did the right thing keeping him prominent away from the usual carnage that ensues in this race.

No doubt BJK will be on the list after this afternoon, win or lose 9/4 this morning is a shocking price and I have no doubt he'll probably start even shorter.

eirebhoy

Look at BJK last year. If that race was in an average meeting he would have been a lot shorter. There's value in a lot of the favourites. Well Chief fell early on, it happens. He'd have probably won judging by the outcome.

jimi_t

Whats saving me this year is laying the favourites on betfair - so far I've laid Detroit City, Aran Concerto and Mister Haight (8/1). The only horse I didn't lay that I was confident enough about was Mad Fish in the last yesterday, I suppose everyone and his mother had gotten the tip for him and I felt I had kind of missed the boat on denman.

masterK

Add Monets Garden to the list. I think a major factor behind favourites being overbet is the fact that so many have been beaten and a lot of punters are chasing losses, especially on course.

Colonel Sanders

eirebhoy wrote:

Look at BJK last year. If that race was in an average meeting he would have been a lot shorter. There's value in a lot of the favourites. Well Chief fell early on, it happens. He'd have probably won judging by the outcome.

Well Chief may well have won but evs was an attrocious price.

Colonel Sanders

and finally 2 humdingers to end the week.

Saintsaire starting at the 5/2 (some muppet had 100k on it at 5/2). I argued in another thread that this horse still had a bit to find to justify favouritism and in my mind was the worst value fav of the week. Anyone snapping up the morning prices about fair along wereb't doing too badly but 3/1 about a horse who had a tough race on tuesday? The grand annual and county hurdle are two of the most competitive races of the week.

TOm Kelly

Colonel - how do you define 'overbet'. Thanks.

Colonel Sanders

Horses who are backed into a far shorter price than they hae any right to be. Simple as that. Often happens when people blindly follow the money when a gamble develops.

Basically i'm saying a lot of favs whether hy won or not started far shorter than their chances meritted.

TOm Kelly

Thought that was what you meant ... and this is where I am totally pi**ed off ... because I believe that it is not necessarily that horses were overbet - but that the bookies were absolutely, unbelievably, pathetically mean with their odds ...

after the first day - when one irish bookie went on tv to say that it was already impossible for him to lose on the meeting - they offered p*xy odds that were nothing short of disgraceful ... evens well chief for example ...

it is a cartel - a cosy club ... and I don't believe that the free market dictates the agenda ... they open too short in the first place ... and it is just minor differentiation after that ... and these prices also form the basis for the betfair prices too as they will simply adjust to be x percent better ...

some of the prices were shocking (aran concerto - I still can't believe that) -- but maybe it has always been this way and I just never passed much notice ... 7/2 fair along -- incredible ... or is it just me that thinks this way?

knighted

the thing i noticed at the festival was that about 80 per cent of the people on course were not punters just festival goers who blindly back the favorites hence forcing the price down lower than it should and it is apparent that the books arnt going to open any higher than whats available on the machine to give themselves a get out -it is a joke at times but everything now revolves around exchange betting as every bookmaker is linked to either betfair or betdaq thru the rdi -its not punter versus bookmaker anymore -the bookie is just the middle man controling starting prices as me and u take each other on and he just takes the biggest percentage he can off u for facilitating a transaction-hence the comments earlier that they cant lose -plus they are better at maths than most of us

Collie D

TOm Kelly wrote:

7/2 fair along -- incredible ... or is it just me that thinks this way?

Can't entirely hold the bookies responsible for that one. He opened at 13/2 and was backed for silly amounts. One bet of £100,000 at 7/2 which is plain stupidity. If the punter was confident enough to put that amount on why didn't he do so at the opening price.....looks like somebody with too much money blindly following the gamble. The Racing Post does an interesting account of what has been bet on particular horses in its results section and there were several six figure bets on this horse.

knighted

u have to take into account these six figure bets can sometimes be trade bets the individuals are not named with these bets -chains reducing there liability etc and one book to another -dont u find it strange that everytime jp has a bet its reported by name but this 100 grand is a mystery punter-imo trade bets

TOm Kelly

knighted wrote:

everything now revolves around exchange betting as every bookmaker is linked to either betfair or betdaq thru the rdi -its not punter versus bookmaker anymore -the bookie is just the middle man controling starting prices as me and u take each other on and he just takes the biggest percentage he can off u for facilitating a transaction-hence the comments earlier that they cant lose -plus they are better at maths than most of us

knighted - what is the RDI ... and are the bookies that are taking bets on track now operating on betfair to hedge / cover bets ... or are you saying that the bookies are doing a lot or most of their trading on betfair - anonymously just like anybody else? Thanks.

knighted

the rdi is software that over 100 bookies now have which is owned by betdaq and completly linked to betdaq -when u place a bet with a book now it is computerised by the clerk and tells them immediatly there profit or liabilities plus there possible book value and per cent over round the rdi is linked to this and they just press a button and the whole book shifts to the exchange locking in a profit for them -hence them only being middle men nowadays if they so choose -there is an article in yesterdays irish field mentioning large bets at fairyhouse and they say it is commission agents on track working for people off track placing the bets for them -most likely to cover liabilitys off course -

think of it this way if a bookie on course has an annual turnover of 5 million and by laying his book to the exchange everytime locking in 10 pc -his margin is 500 k per annum b4 costs nice wages without the risk -now they prob just lay there biggest liabilitys to the exchanges so futher increasing thier take but im sure u get the gist of it

betdaq takes up to 5% so nice for them too -dermott desmond owns betdaq and they developed the rdi to shift the money -he is a financier who deals in percentages everyday so results are irrevevant to him or betdaq once he has the flow of money coming thru -bookmaking is changing into big buisiness not the seedy thing it used to be -best bet in the near future that i can see is to buy shares in betdaq cause it looks like it gonna explode

knighted

about the anonimous bookies yes they anonimous to u and me but not the exchange where they have credit facilities -nice for them

TOm Kelly

knighted ... Thanks - fantastic info there.

Man ... this is incredible ... if I understand correctly - it is changing the entire face of bookmaking ...

what you are saying, I think is that the bookies are, effectively, agents for Betdaq ...

what a coup for Betdaq ... did Betfair miss the boat?

This is very interesting ... we will have to try and figure a way to cash in on this!!

I thought Betdaq is a private company - so shares cannot be bought .. is it?

Thanks anyway for this update.

knighted

betdaq is private but will float im sure -bookies will eventually become like a mortgage broker just getting a per centage -but it is a sound business tactic-bookies used to be just professional gamblers now they are business men

Colonel Sanders

i was at the festival the first two days and must say some of the SPs and price reporting in the Racingpost was attrocious. Gaspara touched 5/1 with several big layers but was not mentioned in the post. there are several more examples of this. anyone betting SP needs their head examined as SPs being reported are not accurate and the shows being relayed to betting shops are not accurate.

The one i remember most is when vintage treasure won a bumper in naas. the details in the post were open 2/1, touched 5/2 returned 5/4 (i think it was 5/4 anyhow). i was there and 11/4 was avaialable with eevery bookie in the ring. 3s was generally available but not with a lot of the big firms. basically anyone betting in a bookmakers office didn't have a shance to bet at 11/4 eventhough at one stage that was the general price on course.

I suppose thats what happens when a company owned by bookmakers (SIS) is responsible for relaying prices. If any of you have read barney curley's book he goes on a similar rant.

Bluetonic

knighted wrote:

betdaq is private but will float im sure

Have you any evidence to point to this? I'm not so sure DD would want to float it, he certainly won't need to raise funding.

knighted

no evidence but he is a financier and to extract capital u must float -he floated most of his other interests so i am only assuming this will be no different -on the sps issue -there is a way they work this out in different regions its an average of prices offered mostly in the ring or rails but the bookie shop punter always gets the **** end of the stick -over the years the off course shops can easily lower the sp by betting to the track to force a payout down -u want to be a matamatician to keep ahead of them -everything is in a bookies favour -think of rule 4 for example should be banned-

at cheltenham the main rails players were ladbrokes richard power chonicle(betdaq)corals and o hare -all with off course shops or chains so no problem for them to trade amonst themselves and affect the sp to thier favour

but where would we be without them lol