What does Paddy Power know that I don't?

ian.f

The Ballymore Novice Hurdle

Playing Second Fiddle to Aran Concerto
Wed 2pm Live on Ch4/RTE
Money-Back Special
If your horse finishes 2nd to Aran Concerto in this race we'll refund your losing single stake.
Applies to singles only. Max refund per customer £200/E300. Applies to bets placed from 10am Tuesday 13th March. Does not apply to Tote bets.


He had the same offer on Detroit city today....
Is this cause for concern or is he just feeling generous after the amazing day he undoubtedly had today???

MickL

They dont Fancy the Horse!!!

Collie D

I hate seeing that offer on a horse I've backed. Would actualy put me off backing him

ballooba

I've backed Silverburn in that race:
€15 Win @ 6/1
€4 Place @ 4/11

BangBeater

yeah, when i saw that offer yesterday, it made me think twice. slapped a fiver on sublimity in the end... what a race!

yeah, and seeing the same for aran concert makes me think twice... the backers for aran concerto today have received their warning from paddypower... best o' luck!!

gucci

the bookmakers are rarely wrong, by doing this they will get a few extra punts on other horses in the race ,almost thinking its a fail safe bet, the detriot city one would have worked a treat for them yesterday

meriwether

Im inclined to wonder about the logic of this.
One school of thought is that Paddy P dont think he will win, so therefore offer an eyecatching special on something that they wont have to honour.
Or could it be that they do fancy Aran, and want to attract money on other horses, i.e. someone who is going to back Silverburn will look at this and say 'Well I reckon my boy will beat Aran anyway, but just to be logical, Ill stick it on in Powers instead, it cant hurt'.
AC wins, and they pay out on him, plus the backed second place, but not on a host of well backed losing outsiders?

redzerdrog

I heard an interview with paddy power months ago about these type of specials and iirc it is that they DO fancy the horse and are trying to attract money to other horses. (i could be wrong and just dreamed this up)

meriwether

redzerdrog wrote:

I heard an interview with paddy power months ago about these type of specials and iirc it is that they DO fancy the horse and are trying to attract money to other horses. (i could be wrong and just dreamed this up)

It makes more sense in my mind.
Whats happened so far is that the horses they put up like this fail badly, like Aran, and Denman last year. This puts it in peoples minds that Powers are all knowing. They're not. They know more than most, but Aran could hose up today.

tall chapy

Money-Back Special
If your horse finishes 2nd to Aran Concerto in this race we'll refund your losing single stake.
Applies to singles only. Max refund per customer £200/E300. Applies to bets placed from 10am Tuesday 13th March. Does not apply to Tote bets.

IMO It's an odds thing to generate more cash, 14 horses have a chance of finishing second, so you have a 14/1 chance of getting your money back & the kicker is, if Aran Concerto does not win, what are the chances of your horse winning
The odds of this would be like like betting without the favourite.

masterK

They're refunding stakes if your horse is second to any favourite tomorrow, that includes Kauto Star, Whyso Mayo, Wichita Lineman and Luanos.

Guess who's had a good Cheltenham?

Paddy Irishman

Anyone know why the Paddy Power advertising board at the finish line was upside down yesterday? Would Ladbrokes have had something to do with it seeing as they sponsored the main race? Thought it was unusual that none of the other betting firms close to the finish were tampered with.

steveymp@hotmai

masterK wrote:

They're refunding stakes if your horse is second to any favourite tomorrow, that includes Kauto Star, Whyso Mayo, Wichita Lineman and Luanos.

Guess who's had a good Cheltenham?

Yep looks like Paddys had a cracking Festival, having said that its still a very good offer today

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

Collie D

Regarding the one in ten statement. Judging by my festival that would be about right, think I backed eight horses and none won. Lot of each way places though, think I have set a record in that I did not have one winner at the festival and still managed to finish nicely in profit. Don't ask how..I've no idea either. Just had to double check that I'd paid the rent this week because I thought I'd too much money.