Cheltenham, Tuesday (Detailed Analysis)

Danny2580

I'll be posting up my Cheltenham analysis for the four days of the festival. Use and abuse as you wish.



Tuesday at Cheltenham

2.00 Cheltenham- The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Chief Contenders: Amaretto Rose, De Soto, Tipperary All Star.
Selections: Tipperary All Star each-way (22/1 Betfair), De Soto each-way (19/1 Betfair)

A fascinating renewal of a race that never lets me down in terms of sheer excitement. As usual, there are any number of fancied horses in the line up, and there’s really no such thing as “word” or “info” when it comes to a race of this calibre- everything is trying and plenty have realistic chances. It is strictly a small stakes race and it goes without saying that avoiding hyped horses and looking for a value bet on an overpriced, classy sort who is proven under the conditions is my preferred way of playing.

Amaretto Rose does not represent much value at this stage. She looked very impressive last time out at Sandown but I don’t know what she beat. Leslingtaylor wasn’t on his game and I get the feeling Astarador may have been knackered after the Tolworth. The sounder surface she encounters today will not necessarily affect her own performance, but it will ensure a more level playing field for those who don’t act so well in the ****e, as we call it here in Ireland. She has only a fair chance of winning, in my opinion, and I’m happy to take her on. Of the other market principals, De Valira, Hide The Evidence and Catch Me are all expected to run very well. The world and its mother knows that, and all three are serious animals but the two I’ll be backing against the field are Tipperary All Star and De Soto.

I still can’t get Tipperary All Star’s course and distance victory of last November out of my head. The opposition were no more than fair, but he gave plenty of weight away all round and seemed to enjoy both the hustle and bustle of a big field, and the hill. Despite his big price, he has been fairly well supported in recent weeks and Halford isn’t sending him over for the craic. He was a classy performer on the flat, and I think his last run in the Ladbroke hurdle was far too bad to be true. Had he run to form there, he would be a far shorter price for this race. The trainer done ever so well to get Golden Cross to within a short head of winning the World Hurdle last year, so he clearly knows what it takes to get one ready for the big day. At 22/1 on the exchanges, he represents excellent value and should be supported each-way. For those of you who took the 31/1 advised on Sunday, just back him to place now.

De Soto is another who appears to enjoy Cheltenham (short-headed in the 2005 Champion Bumper) and he boasts some very solid hurdling form from earlier in the season. His victory over Blythe Knight at Christmas was particularly impressive, and if his next performance had matched up to that he would be far shorter than the 19/1 he currently trades at. It was blatantly obvious he didn’t act on Sandown’s heavy ground in the Tolworth, and he was put away with this race in mind after that. The stable are in fine form just lately, and I think Paul Webber’s charge will go very close here, providing the dry weather continues- genuine good to soft ground will be fine for him in my opinion.

---

2.35 Cheltenham- The Arkle Chase

Chief Contenders: Buena Vista, Fair Along, My Way De Solzen, Don’t Push It.
Selections: Fair Along to win (7/2 Betfair), Buena Vista each-way (12/1 Betfair)

Firstly, a word on My Way De Solzen. He is a serious animal and a potential Gold Cup winner of the future, but I really don’t know if last years champion staying hurdler has the pace to cope with the step back to two miles. Simple as that- Fair Along ran away from him when they met and I think there was a bit left in the tank too. I can’t have him for this race, even if the heavens open right on cue.

Similar applies to Don’t Push It. He has posted some good figures but I don’t think 2m is his trip and his defeat of Phar Bleu over 2m on heavy ground last time doesn’t mean anything to me in the context of this race. I could set myself up for embarrassment with that assertion, but racing is about opinions and that happens to be mine.

Fair Along is one of the few favourites I’ll be backing at the festival. He is only small, but he is extremely athletic. I must admit I love watching this horse jump. He takes his fences with real aplomb, and at speed too. He has a fine course record and his win here over Natal in November really excited me. Alongside his victory over My Way De Solzen, his form looks strong and I’m having a decent win bet on him for this race. I’d go so far as to say this horse has the potential to be a future champion chaser.

Buena Vista is the one with the potential to upset him. Two out of two over the larger obstacles, I feel he has won both starts this year in spite of soft ground rather than because of it. It looks like the Pipe team have had the Arkle in mind for him for a long time, and there is still no better stable at readying a horse for the festival. It’s a given that he has been schooled extensively and will be extremely fit and ready to turn in a career best when it matters most. If anything is to threaten Fair Along, I think Buena Vista could be the one at a generous 12/1.

---

3.15 Cheltenham- The Champion Hurdle

Chief Contenders- Detroit City, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Asian Maze

Selections: Hardy Eustace to win (7/2+ Betfair) , Asian Maze each-way (17/1 Betfair)

All season I’ve been itching to lay Detroit City in this race, but I don’t think it is such a good idea now. I still don’t think he’ll win, but we don’t have a fully fit Harchibald or Mac’s Joy in the mix, and they were my idea of the likely winners earlier in the season. Having five contenders ahead of him in the pecking order made him a great lay at 2/1, but with only three of them left, I’d prefer to back against him. I think Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca are better than Philip Hobbs’ charge, and with Asian Maze receiving 7lb from the grey, I think she can finish ahead of him too.

I always fancied Hardy Eustace to run a big race, but I must admit he has surprised me immensely this year and if he can hold his form for one more race, I think he has Detroit City’s measure off level weights. The vibes from the stable are good, his form is the strongest on offer this season, and he is a course and distance expert. The fact that he is ten counts for as much as the fact that Detroit City is five. It means little in the context of the race. If previous form is anything to go by, Hardy will outjump Detroit City at every hurdle, and if he can get to the bottom of the hill in front or thereabouts, I doubt he’ll be passed. I think he could still be an underrated horse, and he is the most likely winner granted luck in running.

I expect Brave Inca to post a seasonal best here too. His stable were out of form when Hardy got the better of him last time, but having said that I don’t think the form of wins this season read quite as well as Hardy’s. Victories over Rosaker and Iktitaf represent only fair form in the context of this race, and while the latter (along with Straw Bear) is something of an unknown quantity, I can see Hardy Eustace confirming the Irish Champion Hurdle form here. I think the Inca is booked for a place- but I do think he’ll finish ahead of Detroit City.

Asian Maze represents the each-way value. She was travelling well when she fell last year, and I feel she is another who will come into her own up the hill. Her mares allowance could make all the difference, and she has every chance of running into a place or even winning if she gets the breaks. Robbie Power is a decent young jockey who knows the horse well, and she certainly won’t be beaten on his account. Tom Mullins is a damn good judge, and Asian Maze can vindicate his decision to keep her at this trip if she shows a similar level of form to last spring. The market vibes in the last weeks have been positive and at around 17/1 she is too big.

---

4.00 Cheltenham- The William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase

Chief Contenders: Heltornic, Distant Thunder, New Alco.
Selection: New Alco to win (11/1 Betfair)

The first of the festival handicaps and I’ll be watching with interest rather than getting involved from a punting perspective. Michael Scudamore’s Heltornic, Noel Chance’s Distant Thunder, and Ferdy Murphy’s New Alco all look to have decent form and can lay claim to some sort of chance. It looks as if New Alco has been laid out for this and he gets my tentative vote. Graham Lee rides.

---

4.40 Cheltenham- The Cross Country Handicap Chase

Chief Contenders- Spot Thedifference, Heads Onthe Ground, Ivoire De Beaulieu
Selections: Spot Thedifference to win (5/1+ Betfair), Ivoire De Beaulieu each-way (18/1 Betfair)

Spot Thedifference has made an eejit out of many layers, myself included, more times than I’d care to mention. It seems he keeps turning up at Cheltenham carrying with a huge weight, drifting on course as a result of his welter burden, and jumping like a stag before staying on up the hill to win well. His course record of six wins and a second from eight starts speaks for itself, and given that he is likely to go off a generous price again he merits a moderate win bet. He has beaten his younger stablemate giving him bundles of weight in the past, and I think he can do it again today.

Ferdy Murphy’s Ivoire De Beaulieu looks the value. He too is a course and distance winner, and he was sent off 5/1 second favourite behind Heads Onthe Ground here last December. He ran a fair race considering it was his second run back from a year off, and can be expected to improve on that here. What really heartens me is the good form of Ferdy Murphy’s staying chasers just lately. The stable are in much better form than before Christmas and they tend to have odd decent priced festival winner. Off a handy racing weight of 10-7 and under conditions he is proven in, a good performance looks to be on the cards.

---

5.20 Cheltenham- The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

Chief Contenders: Gaspara, Pancake, Junior
Selection: Junior each-way (33/1 Betfair)

Not a race to get seriously involved with, so I can’t see any point in an in depth analysis. Gaspara will no doubt go off favourite and perhaps she deserves to after Saturday’s effort. Pancake, representing the Philip Hobbs stable, looks a decent sort who knows how to win and could be a bit of value. But I’ll be risking my fun fiver on Brendan Powell’s Junior, at a much bigger price. I’ve followed him closely and he looks like a horse with a future to me. His debut effort behind Pauillac was particularly eye catching and with first time blinkers and a nice racing weight of 10-13, I expect him to run better than his odds suggest. I’d expect better than the current 33/1 to become available at some point during the day.

johnnysmurfman

Danny2580 wrote:

All season I’ve been itching to lay Detroit City in this race, but I don’t think it is such a good idea now. I still don’t think he’ll win, but we don’t have a fully fit Harchibald or Mac’s Joy in the mix, and they were my idea of the likely winners earlier in the season. Having five contenders ahead of him in the pecking order made him a great lay at 2/1, but with only three of them left, I’d prefer to back against him.

How does this make sense?

Mchucifer

Good job Danny .inciteful..good luck,,

Danny2580

The reasoning is that with two of the chief protagonists now non-runners and the picture of the race somewhat clearer, I'd rather back against Detroit City than simply lay him- more rewarding.

ozymandias10

fair play Danny. Great stuff and I would have to agree with most of what you said... I agrree about the trip for My way de solzen.

Keep it coming over the week as it levels me and takes the emotion out of bets as it reaffirms what my head thinks and not my to bet with the heart.