St. Patricks day weekend

peasant

Right ...all you augurs, oracles and crystall ball gazers ...what will the weather be like next weekend?

Any point in making any outdoor plans or is the current wet and windy crap going to continue?

Your best guesses forward please !

mike65

It will be chilly and windy with showers*.

Mike.

*based on the last 1500 years

Trogdor

It's looking increasing likely that it will be cold like the raw one we had last year. I remember seeing kids crying from the cold on the highlights of the Dublin parade. Looks like northerly/north-westerlies with snow possible at times mostly on the west and north coasts but all will change. Although the general cool/cold weather is looking almost certain

ninebeanrows

Looks like some fine Spring weather on the way up to Patricks day but with a breakdown to much colder weather occuring in and around Patricks day itself, so it could be a glorious day or it could be wet and cold.:o

Gonzo

im gonna be all around the place on the 17th/18th, hoping for some nice, sunny and reasonabilty warm weather for this time of the year. Roll on Summer:)

darkman2

Going to get cold after Paddy's day with some Wintry weather possible.

arctictree

Ah well - looks like its going to be less windy and rainy this week. At last!!
Long range charts look like colder weather is returning. Maybe winters last gasp??

A

ninebeanrows

Latest Model Outputs suggestion Patrick's Day will be a day of transition to much colder weather for Ireland.. Sunday and Monday looking very cold and unsettled at this stage with potential for widespread wintry showers perhaps even some falls of snow during hours of darkness

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote:

Latest Model Outputs suggestion Patrick's Day will be a day of transition to much colder weather for Ireland.. Sunday and Monday looking very cold and unsettled at this stage with potential for widespread wintry showers perhaps even some falls of snow during hours of darkness

Except for the town of Portmarnock:D

ninebeanrows

Terrific GFS Ensembles this evening and ECM

Its almost so good that it might go pear shaped!!:D

But at the moment things could even get quite wintry over the weekend:eek:

lucernarian

I'm not enthusiastic about this. Even if there was some heavy snow, which is pretty unlikely from a NWerly (away from the northwest itself), it wouldn't last too long in the March sun.

I know I'm backing the easier option (cold rain) but I can't see the threat of significant snow in the charts at the moment, and when the time comes, the cold air is usually tempered. But the snow showers will still be nice to see. 4 days of falling snow recorded here in the season is better than last season as it stands.

Supercell

Snow showers for Artictree and myself, sleet in others and cold rain for some in northern Dublin

Needs -15's and heavy precipitation at this time of year for settling snow during the daytime at lower levels.

Maybe some settling snow above 400 metres or even down to 200 metres if falls happen during the night (would melt rapidly during the day though).

darkman2

Woah man your way off the ball. Maybe its altitude sickness

-4 is sufficient for snow to the lowest levels away from windward coasts. You also have to consider very low heights which indicate very cold air temps. Also the DAM thickness is almost too good!

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Snow showers for Artictree and myself, sleet in others and cold rain for some in northern Dublin

Needs -15's and heavy precipitation at this time of year for settling snow during the daytime at lower levels.

Maybe some settling snow above 400 metres or even down to 200 metres if falls happen during the night (would melt rapidly during the day though).

-15's, you crazy?

The 850's change with the seasons as the ground temperatures do, they have the same effect but with the sun's effect temperatures in bright spells will soar but during a shower they would return to a value you would see under those 850 temperatures in winter, it's hard to explain!

Anyway im not expecting any lying snow, but cold Northerlies in March = Convective sleet and snow shower = a very very happy weathercheck:D

It isn't April its only mid- March and people probably don't realise that it can get awful cold in March under the right synoptics.. Not saying it will here yet though as a long way to go.

Trogdor

Yeh, definately looking interesting for late weekend/early next week atm. Which is why i'm so angry:( . Leaving for marbella for a week early Monday morning. I swear i'm cursed. Always miss anything interesting. Was in the south of France for a month last summer and saw one measly storm

arctictree

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I'm not enthusiastic about this. Even if there was some heavy snow, which is pretty unlikely from a NWerly (away from the northwest itself), it wouldn't last too long in the March sun.

Late March '04 (not sure of exact date - 24th???) we had circa 4 inches of snow here. Started snowing about 3pm and then snowed all night. Sun came out next day and there was a mad thaw - place was dripping for the whole day in brilliant sunshine.

So - still not too late for a bit of sneachta. Not sure about lower levels though....

A

peasant

Snow isn't exactly what i had in mind

I was kinda hoping to celebrate the patron saint with a few pints outside the pub in balmy sunshine (smoker, you know )

Any chance of that at all ?

Snowbie

Longfield wrote:

Snow showers for Artictree and myself, sleet in others and cold rain for some in northern Dublin

Needs -15's and heavy precipitation at this time of year for settling snow during the daytime at lower levels.

Maybe some settling snow above 400 metres or even down to 200 metres if falls happen during the night (would melt rapidly during the day though).

One thing is true in a situation like this(NW airstream),Dublin would be more likely to see any wintryness than Wicklow would like wise Meath be more likely than Dublin etc unless the winds veer NE.Another disadvantage of this type of airstream is that the chance of measurable precip in shower form to hit Wicklow is low and if any does the Dublin mountains would sponge up the moisture giving you nothing more than clear blue skies with very low dew points.

Snowbie

Is this cold weather being pushed back in time in the latest charts?

arctictree

Looks like its being pushed back and changing to calm anticyclonic weather

St Patricks day itself seems to be dry with gentle westerlies - doesn't look too bad at all!

A

ninebeanrows

Yes Patrick's Days looking very pleasent at the moment. with temps up to 14c with some sunshine!! WOoooooooooo what a day that would be.. Ireland Six Nations champs!

After that there is good consensus from the GFS for a cold spell for 3/4 days with 850hpa's moving towards -8c, The 6z Operational was a slight outlier bar 2/3 other runs out of 14 there is good consensus for a very cold spell of weather with the chance for some wintry weather from late Sunday.