Irish Open Sat Hand

beamo

Playing the irish open sat in the fitz last night was 2 prizes one ticket and €2900 cash for 2nd. i'm a bit hazy on details but think there's 12 left 6 at our table blinds are 1k/2k. The villain has just moved to our table 3 hands before and well has me covered so no real read on him. he reraised the first hand he played at our table and said after that he had a big pair.I'm on the sb for 1k and 26k left behind. i look down at A10spades, its folded to the villain who raises it to 6k. Is this a hand thats worth a push at this stage? i know A10 is a pretty marginal hand and really isnt beating a lot of genuine raising hands but we're playing shorthanded and the BB will be back to me in 4 hands and i only have 13BBs left which isnt anywhere near what id need to have a chance at top 2. Should i wait for a better spot to get my chips in even if it means being blinded away for an orbit or two later? is folding a serious option? can i afford to just call this out of position with 10 BBs left and reassess on the flop?

Hitman Actual

Without any info it's a bit tricky, but assuming he's the CO/button on a fairly obvious steal, just push.

beamo

yeh i forgot to say that the villain was on the button.

LuckyLloyd

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BigCityBanker

fold and push the next two hands with any 2

Hitman Actual

beamo wrote:

yeh i forgot to say that the villain was on the button.

Well, unless there's any reason to believe that he has a genuine hand, then it's a standard push. If he folds, happy days; if not, you should still be ~60/40 against his range.

LuckyLloyd

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5starpool

A hand very very similiar to this happened to me when I would have been the 'villian'. I am not sure if this was it though. Most of the details sound right except for the fact that I had been on this table since before the break and it was earlier than 12 left, about 16 I thought. Someone definitely pushed into me with AsTs after I raised. Spooky if this is not me.

Did 'villian' have very short hair and wearing a fleece doing a good bit of talking?

I hate the term 'villian' in general by the way, hence the ''.

Solksjaer

I don't think this is a shove at all. 26k with the blinds at 1/2. with A 10.

so you beat A 9 and down, unless you are prepared to race for your nights work with a marginal hand agianst a player you've no reads on, I dont think this is good. It can equally look like a steal to the button guy, especially if you are starting to worry about your stack, you range may be just as wide as you think his is..I'd wait, I prefer even 10 J to this to be honest. So I disagree bad move in my opinion, if you must make this move do it agianst someone who has a BIG decision to make rather than a questionable one.


What transpired anyway?

LuckyLloyd

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Norwich Fan Rob

pushing or folding would be hugely dependent on my impression of the villian and how the table is playing, since he just sat down, its tough.
calling is terrible.

beamo

Did 'villian' have very short hair and wearing a fleece doing a good bit of talking?

No i think you were in seat 6 on the table, i was in seat 3 (young lad with a white shirt on). I pushed here and he had QQ and i didn't improve. After the hand i felt a bit stoopid and felt i could have waited for a better spot but the more i think about it i'm pretty sure it would be the right move most times.

sikes

he has to fold over 3/4 of his raising range for this to be profitable, we are going to be ~70/30 against his calling range.

You fold = 26000

You push

=SUM( 0.75*(35000) + 0.25*(0.7*(-26000) + 0.3*(55000))) = 25825

i think thats right, its very early to be doing maths

Hitman Actual

Solksjaer wrote:

I prefer even 10 J to this to be honest.

This is wrong, tbh. If the raiser has a geniune hand (say 99+, big Ace), AT and JT are both around a 2/1 dog, so it doesn't matter which we push with. When the raisers range is much wider, AT performs much better. ATs should be around a 60/40 favourite, while JT will probably be a slight dog.

The strength of your hand is only really an issue if you think the raiser has a genuine hand (and you should then probably only be pushing QQ+, AK). If he's on a steal (which he will be most of the time here), you should be pushing with a lot of hands: most pairs, suited Aces/kings, medium offsuit Aces/kings, broadway kings/queens/jacks, etc. And probably a lot more hands when you consider the extra equity you have through the raiser folding his stealing hand.

Solksjaer

Disagree. If he has a good A you are way behind , for me personally 10 J performs better when deciding to move aginast a potential A X hand. Your A is less likely to be live.

I think the OP should fold anyway, its not a good way to go out after playing all night. As he said the other guy had him easily covered.

beamo

does the fact its a satellite with only 2 prizes make it an easier push/fold?

LuckyLloyd

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5starpool

beamo wrote:

No i think you were in seat 6 on the table, i was in seat 3 (young lad with a white shirt on). I pushed here and he had QQ and i didn't improve. After the hand i felt a bit stoopid and felt i could have waited for a better spot but the more i think about it i'm pretty sure it would be the right move most times.

I knew it didn't sound quite right, but is very similiar to a hand where I had AA.

LuckyLloyd

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5starpool

I had AA cracked twice and KK once in the first 40 mins. Me so lucky.

LuckyLloyd

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Hitman Actual

Solksjaer wrote:

Disagree.

If you disagree, give me a logical reason why, not just a feeling you have. Do the maths (download pokerstove) and tell me what part of what I said is wrong:

lenny_leonard wrote:

This is wrong, tbh. If the raiser has a geniune hand (say 99+, big Ace), AT and JT are both around a 2/1 dog, so it doesn't matter which we push with. When the raisers range is much wider, AT performs much better. ATs should be around a 60/40 favourite, while JT will probably be a slight dog.

The strength of your hand is only really an issue if you think the raiser has a genuine hand (and you should then probably only be pushing QQ+, AK). If he's on a steal (which he will be most of the time here), you should be pushing with a lot of hands: most pairs, suited Aces/kings, medium offsuit Aces/kings, broadway kings/queens/jacks, etc. And probably a lot more hands when you consider the extra equity you have through the raiser folding his stealing hand.

Solksjaer

Huh? I thought I gave you a logical reason, even though I know now yer man had QQ, I would expect a raiser to have an A x here at least a lot of the time...logiclly for tournament survival you got to decide if you want to race or if you feel you are in a position to wiat. I feel A 10 is very marginal, and IMO !0 J works better it has better draw implications, plus you are more likely to be live at least in a race. What maths do you want to understand this point/?

ps i never said you were wrong i said i disagree, you though have said I was wrong, again I disagree, my logic stands. I would hve folded here anyway despite your calculator

phantom_lord

j10o against ajo+is a few percent better than a10o against aj+, but a10 preforms way better against the rest of his range than j10o.

anyway, aj has j10 dominated, so you're only better against aq/ak, and a10 preforms way better against ax<10 so your logic is kinda off a bit.

Hitman Actual

Solksjaer wrote:

Huh? I thought I gave you a logical reason, even though I know now yer man had QQ, I would expect a raiser to have an A x here at least a lot of the time...logiclly for tournament survival you got to decide if you want to race or if you feel you are in a position to wiat. I feel A 10 is very marginal, and IMO !0 J works better it has better draw implications, plus you are more likely to be live at least in a race. What maths do you want to understand this point/?

ps i never said you were wrong i said i disagree, you though have said I was wrong, again I disagree, my logic stands. I would hve folded here anyway despite your calculator

My point is that what you're saying is misleading to the OP, and totally wrong advice. JT and AT perform roughly the same against a genuine hand (like I said), but other than that, AT out-performs it strongly. This is the maths I'm looking for:


Against Ax:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.106% 49.92% 07.19% 1969384644 283527234.00 { ATs, ATo }
Hand 1: 42.894% 35.71% 07.19% 1408709304 283527234.00 { AA, A2s+, A2o+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.062% 40.76% 00.30% 2121591000 15835566.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 58.938% 58.63% 00.30% 3052142028 15835566.00 { AA, A2s+, A2o+ }

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Against a genuine hand, 99+ AQ+:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.248% 27.94% 01.31% 413288724 19421874.00 { ATs, ATo }
Hand 1: 70.752% 69.44% 01.31% 1027298184 19421874.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.016% 30.73% 00.29% 521962060 4884318.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 68.984% 68.70% 00.29% 1166874872 4884318.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

---

Against a reasonable stealing range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.298% 52.94% 03.36% 4771803784 302696030.00 { ATs, ATo }
Hand 1: 43.702% 40.34% 03.36% 3636372412 302696030.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, A2o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.021% 41.31% 01.71% 4085776300 169135078.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 56.979% 55.27% 01.71% 5466221448 169135078.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, A2o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }