What do you do here.

Tar.Aldarion

Pokersoc, three left. Prize 200/120/75.

I'm close to the chip leader in chips(roughly 170-200k each), and the third guy is just over half my stack.
Blinds 6k-12k.


Button folds, small blind makes it 30k(He does this all the time), I call with Jd7d.
Flop, AdAhkd.
He goes all in, simply, do you call or not? I can tell he has Ax. If I hit a diamond, I knock him out, and will most likely win, if I don't hit, I'm out.
I argue about this with myself a lot. I always seem to vary what I do with my flushdraws.
What do you do, and why?

HiCloy

Tar.Aldarion wrote:

Pokersoc, three left. Prize 200/120/75.

I'm close to the chip leader in chips(roughly 170-200k each), and the third guy is just over half my stack.
Blinds 6k-12k.

Button folds, small blind makes it 30k(He does this all the time), I call with Jd7d.
Flop, AdAhkd.
He goes all in, simply, do you call or not? I can tell he has Ax. If I hit a diamond, I knock him out, and will most likely win, if I don't hit, I'm out.
I argue about this with myself a lot. I always seem to vary what I do with my flushdraws.
What do you do, and why?

If he's the other chipleader I fold. Flushdraws aren't great on a paired board. If he's the shortie I'd be more inclined to call, but a marginal fold. I definitely fold if you have good reads on him a la "I can tell he has Ax"

Scouser in Dub

I'm folding you are not getting anywhere near the 2/1 you need to call also the fact that the board is paired gives less value to the flush

* I am assuming that it is the other chip leader you are up against

phantom_lord

pf is pretty bad.

fold here is correct i think.

Hitman Actual

ICM calculations are used as a guide for these sort of situations. Basically, your stack size, in relation to the other stacks, holds a certain $EV (which is obviously related to the prize pool). Basically, if you call and win, your $EV goes up a certain amount, but if you call and lose your $EV drops a certain amount as well. So you need to compare the combined $EV of calling and winning/losing with the $EV of folding. Whichever gives the highest $EV is the 'modelled' best course of action.

I haven't time to work this out now, but I'm fairly sure this a fold. You're a 3/1 dog or so, so 75% of the time you get the €75 prize and the other 25% of the time your €EV increases by a decent amount. I don't think it increases enough for calling to be better than folding.

breadmonkey

Eh fold?

Flushdraw

I reraise or fold preflop but i'm not calling his push. If he has half your stack, he's pushing 70k into a 60k pot so your probably getting the odds but the fact its a paired board makes this a fold.

If its the chip leader in the SB its a definite fold.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

phantom_lord

real clear situation for rr or fold pf. I don't understand calling at all.

Hitman Actual

Here's the ICM, taking it that either the SB or BB gets knocked out in the hand:

Stacks before hand/€EV
Button: 100K / €112
SB: 200K / €141.5
BB (Hero): 200K / €141.5

---

Resulting stacks if we fold:
Button: 100K / €112.3
SB: 230K / €148.3
BB (Hero): 170K / €134.4

---

Resulting stacks if we call and win:
Button: 100K / €136
BB (Hero): 400K / €184


Call and lose: €EV = €75

---

From there, and taking it that we're a 3/1 dog, work out the €EV of calling as:

€EV_call = 0.25*184 + 0.75*75 = 102.25

This is less than the €EV for folding (€134.4) so it's a clear fold.

A good rule of thumb: Decisions that are -ChipEV are also -€EV. In this case you're not getting the price to even call, so it's not going to be a +€EV decision.

Also, tangling with the big stack is bad for your €EV. If you want to get into these situations, it's much better to do it against the smaller stack. For example, in this case if the small stack was to double through you (with stacks at 200K:200K:100K), your €EV would only drop to €112, but getting knocked out by the big stack puts your €EV at €75.

---

Edited to change some minor typos/calculation errors.

Bandana boy

This is a fold with a read of Ax and it is not even a close decision
in fact it is a fold if u think he has K x some of the time

Tar.Aldarion

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Calling with J7 without a plan is bad. If you think his range is too wide pre - flop and this is happening a lot: push>re - pop to 80k>call.

This is what I hated most about what I did, I went to reraise, and I don't know why I decided not to.

The only way I like a call with J7 is that if you can be certain that he will never continuation bet when he misses and you can just push him off most missed flops. In the vast majority of situations I am folding here - and I push the rest.

He lets it go if he miss, and when he made continuation bets he folded to reraises.

Thanks Lenny, that's what I wanted to know.
I've never tried to work out those figures.
This hand is pretty clear cut, but I was arguing about it with myself about something. Then we argued after, and were all wrong about the EV.

Thanks.

Rnger

you say he's been raising alot preflop, his range must be fairly large 3 handed then. If your sure he has Ax its a clear fold but if his range so large, you could well be ahead right now with J high

Mellor

Rnger wrote:

you say he's been raising alot preflop, his range must be fairly large 3 handed then. If your sure he has Ax its a clear fold but if his range so large, you could well be ahead right now with J high

His raising range 3 handed is very wide. Standard enough.
Even if he was raising with any two cards. It could still be safe to say he was only pushing with an ace. If thats the OPs read on him