Qq Oop

peeko

Villain is 31/24/2.1 and is a winning player with the stats I got on him

Full Tilt Poker Game #1830590880: Table Highland (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:48:33 ET - 2007/02/19
Seat 1: peeko ($92.25)
Seat 2: Medicine4Goat ($100.85)
Seat 3: BillFrist879 ($99)
Seat 4: imahead ($100)
Seat 5: Bueskyttern ($316.10)
Seat 6: Jalan7 ($82.80)
BillFrist879 posts the small blind of $0.50
imahead posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to peeko [Qd Qh]
Bueskyttern folds
Jalan7 calls $1
peeko raises to $4.50
Medicine4Goat calls $4.50
BillFrist879 folds
imahead folds
Jalan7 folds
*** FLOP *** [4c 5s Th]
peeko bets $7
Medicine4Goat raises to $27

What to do?

Mr.Plough

lash it in. if he has a set, which i assume is the case, so be it.

cooker3

Any more info on him, have you been raising and cont betting a lot? Has he been re-raising a lot on the flop? Do you think he would do that with AT? Would he re-raise pf with Jacks. They are all the thoughts running through my head when I am faced with this.
With no reads I would probably dump it seeing as it is such a drawless board.

padser

I'm probably pushing I have to say.

From his point of view your range, assuming he rates you as a reasonable player is AA -JJ (where you have bet with an overpair) and AK, AQ (where you are simply continuation betting).

24 times you have AA - JJ and 32 times you have AK AQ.

Assuming you are going to throw away AK, AQ and JJ then you are folding 38 times and calling 16 times.

He bet $27 to win $17, which he will do more then half the time.

You can play with the figures a bit, but even if he assumes you would call with the JJ its still going to a +EV raise from his point of view regardless of his cards, so I think you got to call.

phantom_lord

call, check the turn. Either call his bet and get in all-in on the river, or crai on the turn.

El Stuntman

phantom_lord wrote:

call, check the turn. Either call his bet and get in all-in on the river, or crai on the turn.

this blows - why wait?

phantom_lord

El Stuntman wrote:

this blows - why wait?

cause if we reraise he's gonna fold hands we beat and call with the ones we don't.

I think there's a good chance he's doing this with air and thinks we missed, if we call, check a blank hopefully he'll fire again. And we get value off a10/jacks or whatever too.

I dunno, this line seemed to work well the last couple of nights, when I thought people we're floating me, for instance yesterday a villain folded for his last $50 into a $350 pot after reraising my flop bet on a low board lol.

edit: found it

Holdem No Limit - $2 BB

SB ($276.75) [phantom_lord]
BB ($177.75)
CO ($169.50)
Button ($181.50)

phantom_lord is SB with Ah, Ad
Preflop: (4 players, $3)
CO calls $2, Button calls $2, phantom_lord calls $1 and raises $6, BB folds, CO calls $6, Button calls $6

Flop: 7s, 8h, 3s (3 players, $26)
phantom_lord bets $20, CO folds, Button calls $20 and raises $30, phantom_lord calls $30

Turn: 7c (2 players, $126)
phantom_lord checks, Button bets $70, phantom_lord calls $70 and raises $140, Button folds

Results: phantom_lord has Ah, Ad
phantom_lord wins $264 as the last player standing


maybe I'm off here tho.

peeko

phantom_lord wrote:

I think there's a good chance he's doing this with air and thinks we missed

how become you think this Shane? 31/24/2.1?

phantom_lord

those are pretty laggy stats, I haven't played with him, so I've no idea, but I'd imagine he'd be capable of taking people off pots. Of course I could be way off and he's got 45s/1010 or something.

I'm not folding here, so if he has us beat so be it, I might fold on the turn if i think that's the case, but right now I'm concentrating on getting value out of the hands we do beat.

peeko

will pay closer attention when I come across him again thats for sure.

RESULT: I folded.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

valor

phantom lords line is perfect.

peeko

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Peeko, your discipline and abillity to gardually grind out a profit are impressive. But this fold is terrible IMO. His stats indicate that he is an aggressive, action type player. Involved in almost a third of his hands, raising in pre - flop a significant portion of the time, and playing hard after the flop.

Secondly, the stats he might have on you indicate that you are Rocky and very capable of giving up on flops // making tough folds.

Put two and two together, and you are ahead a lot of the time. Because of your image I love Phantom's line. If you call and check, he will probably feel he can still take you off it. You will have induced him to bluff // semi - bluff often with the worst hand, and get him over the line on the turn behind.

If he is playing the top of his range, so be it. Getting caught here will allow you to steal more pots over the remainder of the session against these opponents, and will give your continuation bets far more respect. This is in no way a justification for tanking it if behind - I am just noting that if you are beat it isn't the end of the world.

Thanks very much for this input Lloyd, anything that can make me a better player I truly appreciate. What you are saying was something I was taking into consideration. I figured there might be a chance that he was data mining, that he might have me down as a nit. And that I would fold to his OTT raise.

2 things that stuck me as odd in this hand, and I guess were the things that made me fold was a) the big re-raise and b) he is 26BB/100 over 3.5k hands.

The big re-raise should have made me call really. He bet 4 times my flop raise. I think a player that has a hand would normally bet closer to 2.5/3 times my raise, would this be correct thinking? I personally would be scared to re-raise someone 4 times there raise in fear of scaring them away if I had a made hand.

Again thanks for your comments, I learn from a lot from boards. And I learn a lot from the mistakes that I make. I err too much on the side of caution, but I prefer to take this approach and build my skills slowly than lose a lot of money and lose my mind slowly.