detroit city

bookiebasher

biggest lay of the festival...he will not win the champion

mdwexford

can you give some reasons as to why you think this.

the amount of stupid posts like this on here annoy me

bookiebasher

no problem...mdwexford...

hardy eustace was giving him weight the last day and in the jockeys own words gave hardy a terrible ride to be beaten bu a fast diminishing length.
Both brace inca and hardy have won the last 3 runnings of this race and i know for a fact hardy was all wrong last year..
Also 5 year olds have a bad record in the champion hurdle..
Do u not think brave inca,hardy eustace,macs joy or harchibald would have not beaten straw bear today???.

purple'n'gold

bookiebasher wrote:

biggest lay of the festival...he will not win the champion

That remains to be seen, but it will take a good horse to lower his colours.

mdwexford

thanks bookiebasher, i just dont like people having no reasoning behind there comments.

im honestly not too sure if the above horses would have beaten Straw Bear, i think Detroit City seems to be just doing enough in his races so its hard to know how good he is. its all going to be a lot different at the festival as these "trials" with small fields and no pace bear no resemblance to the Champion Hurdle at all.

bookiebasher

last sundays AIG was as good a field apart from detroit that u would get in the champion and i reckon cheltenham would suit inca and hardy even more..
Agree with your trials theory for most of the festival races but the champion hurdle has horses with rock solid form.

easytiger!

mdwexford wrote:

thanks bookiebasher, i just dont like people having no reasoning behind there comments.

im honestly not too sure if the above horses would have beaten Straw Bear, i think Detroit City seems to be just doing enough in his races so its hard to know how good he is. its all going to be a lot different at the festival as these "trials" with small fields and no pace bear no resemblance to the Champion Hurdle at all.

Not saying that I will be backing him but I don't see how anyone can dismiss DC's chances out of hand. Detractors point to the muddling pace of his wins this year but if anything he wants a better pace and has had no choice to make the running. He was never going to get caught by Hardy in the Bula, he's dossing away in front with his ears pricked after the last. The form of his Triumph has been franked over and over again this year and that was definitely a fast-run big field gallop. And surely u have to accept his connections have a fair to reasonable idea of whats needed to win a CH?

mdwexford

i agree with you 100%, i was talking about trials in general.

Detroit City = machine

bookiebasher

very good points tiger..im just going on past form etc...when detroit city beats the best 2m hurdlers then he can go off 9/4 for the big race but until then im sticking with the irish horses..

Dap Daddy

I agree with the OP statement,this horse has no chance come march,its alright winning mickey mouse races with small field when nothing is willing to take him on but the Champion Hurdle will be a completely different matter.I honestly believe if Hardy was sent to the front instead of letting Detroit have his own way up front the result would have been different.While Straw Bear is a good stick is would be nowhere near good enough to win a Champion Hurdle.The strongest form is the lines between Inca,Hardy and Macs Joy with maybe the latter going to come on most from his last run.I willing be backing that these will again be the 3 fighting out the finish come March.

meriwether

Todays Agfa was a very bad result for Brave Inca connections and followers.
Straw Bear will run in the Champion Hurdle, and McCoy will be retained for him. Inca connections neded S. Bear to be beaten out of sight today, so he would be pulled out.
The question is, who will ride Brave Inca? Ruby could be retained for Desert Quest also.

easytiger!

Can't see why Straw Bear's connections would go for the CH now. If he couldn't get to Detroit after making that mistake he's only going for place money at best. He has any amount to find to make the frame

Colonel Sanders

Detroit city is obviously one of the classiest british trained hurdlers to come on the scene for a long while and will go to the festival with a fighting chance. However (and I expect plenty of abuse for this) if we ignore ante post liabilities he surely should not be favourite for the champion hurdle. His form this year has been to win a very poor renewal of the greatwood off 148, albeit impressively. All has been alluded to earlier recieved 4lbs in the bula and won by a diminishing length in a race with no pace. And today he beat a horse who while a decent yardstick has yet to beat the best Ireland can offer. DC will surely improve for a quickly run race at the festival but so will hardy who'll have a 4ls swing and we all know that Bave Inca acts very well around Prestbury park.

For what its worth I think the only value left in the race is the near 9/1 available on macs joy on betfair. Ran a cracker in the AIG to blow away the cobwebs and only has a length to find with Brave inca from last year.

fade2black

All these posts just seem to be an echo of what I've been saying for the last few months. Search back for the Hary Detroit thead.

knighted

anyone think sublimity might warrent some debate or discussion -not a lot to go on i know but the royal and sun alliance last year

taken from rp -

Sublimity did ever so well to get fourth given that he was hampered by the loose Pablo du Charmil on the turn down the hill. That made his life much harder but he still came quickly back on the bridle and proceeded to run a huge race. Not surprisingly for a miler on the Flat, he possesses tons of speed, but he stays well enough too, and has a big race in him.


navan

On his first start since April, SUBLIMITY made a winning return. The former Listed winner made up into a very smart novice last term, when he did best of the Irish with a close fourth to Noland in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
A rating of 138 put him well clear in a race that lacked strength in depth and he won with any amount to spare. Always travelling strongly, he cruised to the front at the second-last and quickened in fine style from the last for a wide-margin success.
Trainer John Carr reported that Sublimity had been held up by a virus earlier in the season and that he did his first piece of work only just before Christmas.
The winner, best fresh, will now head straight to Cheltenham for either the Champion or County Hurdle. A classy sort, he should prove good enough to win a big prize over hurdles.

qzy

Connections have backed Sublimity at 150s for the champion if thats any help....

I have had a little on at 100s just to have him on my side on the Tuesday as well

Baggio

its an intriguing looking race now for sure,...DC does move well has great scope etc..i thought he did ok in the AGFA, but i cant figure out the channel4 / bbc folks at all ??..... that only Big Mac seems able to actually see the form of the Bula as it really is...Hardy Eustace was alll wrong last year,in the champion hurdle he had to handle less than ideal going etc and try to beat a bang in form Inca and MCcoy, and still was not far off them at the finish with Macs Joy between em.
This year Hardy is bang on he'll luuv the better ground and cheltnham itself and his time of the year...how none of the UK comentators can see him turning DC form over is beyond beliefe really is. Macs Joy has a chance but something tells me hes not a luver of an uphill finish..could be wrong tho. Meade's squadd??..i dunno he seems to dominate in the winter and yet his stars seem to come a cropper at cheltenham every time not sure why.
I think Hardy is deffinately best of ours and he'll win it with inca 2nd and DC third..its just a gut feeling i have about the race. If there's a fly in the ointment,,yes that new chap Sublimity!.. i was well impressed how he did it at Navan,,and thats a toungh gruelling track,,he pisssed in ..ok not against hardy and co...but that was some speed he showed from the last hurdle..100/1? i'll have a bit of that!!

ciao' amigos...Baggio....

fade2black

We were all talking about Sublimity last year, I don't think he's Champion Hurdle class personally and I'd be very surprised if he passed the likes of Mac's Joy, Brave Inca, hardy, Dc etc...

keepitquiet

i think if anyone was to lay detroit city theyd be bonkers. i will be backing detroit city, purely because the horse has proven itself at cheltenham, beat hardy eustace which beat the rest (easily in my opinion, the jockey eased nr the post and hardy eustace charged, it was not close at all imo) and at sandown beat straw bear. i think by beating straw bear today it shows class aswell as we dont really know how good straw bear is unless someone wants to enlighten me?
the horse shows it has fighting spirit, loves cheltenham and it would be foolish to lay a horse that is very very likely to win the champion hurdle.

mdwexford

my god you'd know this was an Irish forum, complete rubbish about Sublimity, anyone who thinks this horse can come in the top 5 is wrong.

Detroit City has been immaculate all season, the only Champion Hurdle contender who is unbeaten all year. had to make his own pace in dawdling races and still won. the faster pace and course is not a plus for anyone as ALL THE ABOVE contenders are proven at the course. at the end of the day its whoever gets their horse there 100% on the day and has luck in running etc as theres sfa between them all. my money will be going on Straw Bear as i think hes still relatively unexposed and has more to come and if he comes back before the festival Harchibald who has nothing to find on past form.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

fr wishy washy

meriwether wrote:

The question is, who will ride Brave Inca? Ruby could be retained for Desert Quest also.

Afaik Ruby doesn't have a contract with Nicholls but would want to be diplomatic about getting off Desert Quest for the obvious reasons (Kauto Star, Denman etc).Tom Mullins would then need a jock for Asian Maze or consider the 3 miler to keep Ruby on board.

goodfela

Detroit City certainly hasn't done anything wrong but is no value at all in the betting - yes, he's the only unbeaten contender but then again all the irish horses have raced against each other while the only serious contender that DC has beaten is Hardy Eustace, and that in a badly run race.
(Straw Bear not serious contender in my opinion but a good benchmark)

I'm not saying DC won't win but his form has not earned his price. 5/2 - not for me...

as for Sublimity, i think someone's having a laugh. From the Sublimity to the ridiculous

knighted

mdwexford wrote:

my god you'd know this was an Irish forum, complete rubbish about Sublimity, anyone who thinks this horse can come in the top 5 is wrong.

Detroit City has been immaculate all season, the only Champion Hurdle contender who is unbeaten all year. had to make his own pace in dawdling races and still won. the faster pace and course is not a plus for anyone as ALL THE ABOVE contenders are proven at the course. at the end of the day its whoever gets their horse there 100% on the day and has luck in running etc as theres sfa between them all. my money will be going on Straw Bear as i think hes still relatively unexposed and has more to come and if he comes back before the festival Harchibald who has nothing to find on past form.

yes md last time we checked this is an irish forum ,and home to the best raceshorses in the world also -u start off ur comment by dismissing sublimity-thats fair enuff as i said earlier we dont know a lot about him and pitched his name in to gauge reactions -but then u say -"at the end of the day its whoever gets their horse there 100% on the day and has luck in running "

does this not apply to sublimity -if he turns up 100% and gets the luck in running that he didnt get last year do u not think he has what it takes to finish in the top 3 or 4 -personally i dont know but i was impressed with his run last year and that race is a good feeder to the champion hurdle and bearing in mind he only finished three and three quaters lenghts behind ur selection straw bear -having met trouble in running-i think its a bit wrong to dismiss him entirely
if nothing else it is a good trading option as think he into 50s with pp and 55 on bf no way will he start bigger than 20s come the day

i await ur wrath md

knighted

as for Sublimity, i think someone's having a laugh. From the Sublimity to the ridiculous [/QUOTE]


please explain -i really want to know why -u would be doing me a favour if u can tell me ur reasoning behind this statement as i am just guessing at the moment and dont want to look foolish when i go to the bookies later to back sublimity-

seriosly theres no point in posting a comment like that if ur not going to back it up with reasoning-this board attracts alot of novice punters and raceing fans who would like to learn something so please expand

keepitquiet

ziggy67 wrote:

If you were to take DC's beating of Hardy literally then Hardy would beat it off level weights when they meet again.

Or Jazz Messenger thrashed Straw Bear by futher than DC did and then Hardy, Brave Inca & Macs Joy all beat Jazz Messenger so they therefore must be miles better than DC. :rolleyes:

We could go round in circles all day like this, best just to treat the trials with a pinch of salt save for knowing what horses are fit and well.

I won't be backing DC anyway because:

1. It is only a 5 year old. I'm not one for trends TBH but 5 year olds just have such a bad record in this race that there has to be something in it.

2. It is just way too short in the betting, i'm convinced that if he wasn't the great-English-white-hope he would be at least 4 or 5/1 based on what he has actually achieved in relation to his market rivals who have proved themselves in this race.

3. I've just got a gut feeling that he isn't good enough (not scientific, but you have to trust your instincts)

*Off Topic* Mods are we having a tipping comp for Cheltenham again this year? (WBailey, vengence shall be mine!! )

my point is would you lay DC? or would it be a high risk to lay it? as for jazz messenger thrashing straw bear, straw bear wasnt right on the day due to some sort of infection. hence why we dont know how good straw bear is. therefore it was impossible to judge DCs performance without being relatively positive. it passed the line first so it won and that is all that winners have to do isnt it? when DC beat hardy it had to make all of the running and wont at cheltenham.

my point was supposed to be interpretated as the horse always passing the post first, which surely shows that the horse has a fighting spirit. and it has beaten (the margin on a victory is not important) all it has come across which are all top class horses. surely youd be stupid to lay the horse when it hasnt been beaten at cl1 this season and is improving all the time...

its all about how you interpret the facts and i understand your point of view. personally i interpret facts not too literally in horse racing as it can be an unpredictable sport:) my point is would you be tempted to lay this horse ziggy?

goodfela

knighted, apologies if you were offended - i was only joking which is why i added a smiley face

I'm not a good enough gambler to advise other people but for my money i don't think Sublimity has much chance at all in the CH. Interesting horse for sure but does he have a real chance against Detroit City, Brave Inca, Macs Joy, Hardy Eustace, Iktitaf. I don't fancy Jazz Messenger or Straw Bear that much either and i would still put my money on them ahead of him. On his very best form he is still behind Straw Bear and his preparations this season have been disrupted.

If he runs into the places for you at a big price i'll be the first to congratulate you but maybe you should look for reasons to back him, rather than reasons not to...

knighted

goodfella wasnt offended i was being sarcastic as i wanted to provoke responces and discussion as i do think this horse will improve -whether it improves enuff is anyones guess so i took 55s on betfair for 20 eurs and might take 60s for 40 euros and try to lay off at below 20s for a free bet nearer the time-he is an interesting horse

also for the world hurdle still 28s available for celestial wave might be a trading oppertunity there -cant see that one going off at that price as he done nothing wrong so far

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote:

my god you'd know this was an Irish forum, complete rubbish about Sublimity, anyone who thinks this horse can come in the top 5 is wrong.

Detroit City has been immaculate all season, the only Champion Hurdle contender who is unbeaten all year. had to make his own pace in dawdling races and still won. the faster pace and course is not a plus for anyone as ALL THE ABOVE contenders are proven at the course. at the end of the day its whoever gets their horse there 100% on the day and has luck in running etc as theres sfa between them all. my money will be going on Straw Bear as i think hes still relatively unexposed and has more to come and if he comes back before the festival Harchibald who has nothing to find on past form.

First of all if straw bear has a chance so does sublimity on the sureme novice form from last year. You could make a case that sublimity was overpriced at 100/1, his true price probably nearer the 40 or 50/1 mark. Lets not forget this only implies he has a 2-2.5% chance of winning the champion. For what its worth neither will be in the first 4 IMO.

Most people here acknowledge DC's chance but the over riding opinion, which i agree with, is that he should not be favourite for the race. My reasons for this stance have already been outlined.

Sure isn't horse racing and betting on horses in particular a game of opinions lads

fade2black

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055026825


Aver eagerly awaiting Champion this year.

Colonel Sanders

Btw a mate of mine spoke to one of the brave inca syndicate and they see macs joy as their biggest threat. He said hardy eustace will not finish in front of him in march.

we'll see on the 14th.

fade2black

Colonel Sanders wrote:

Btw a mate of mine spoke to one of the brave inca syndicate and they see macs joy as their biggest threat. He said hardy eustace will not finish in front of him in march.

we'll see on the 14th.

What a heap of bullshit.

scojones

Colonel Sanders wrote:

Btw a mate of mine spoke to one of the brave inca syndicate and they see macs joy as their biggest threat. He said hardy eustace will not finish in front of him in march.

we'll see on the 14th.

Heh. Your mate should have told him where to go. Was that particular member of the syndicate not at Leopardstown last week? He has his head in the clouds if he doesn't see Hardy as a threat.

knighted

Colonel Sanders wrote:

Btw a mate of mine spoke to one of the brave inca syndicate and they see macs joy as their biggest threat. He said hardy eustace will not finish in front of him in march.

we'll see on the 14th.

they should have taken the 400k they were offered a couple of years ago-good money at the time-

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Morgans

There are far worse each way longshots out there than Sublimity. Horse goes well fresh. Ate the hill at Navan in a desperate contest last time out, but was unlucky not to be involved with Straw Bear in last year's supreme, and he will be one of the few wanting soft ground on the day. It will be good to soft at best.

DC has every chance, but still needs to improve past some very tough horses.

Hoofer

Judging on improvement horses, mac's joy will be the one to fear most.Bj will be turning in coming down the hill with plenty of horse, jumps well but just seems to lack a gear at the finish, but this year will be finely tuned by Jessica.He will be going to cheltenham fairly fresh as his had an easy campaign preparation so far.Hardy eustace will be there abouts and may make his own pace again.I do not fear Detroit city as he will find the pace of the CH a different ball game and will have to jump foot perfect, but P Hobbs will have him ready.I definetely will not be supporting DC.As for sublimity, a good each way bet. 3 lengths fourth to straw bear in the supreme last year is a good form around Cheltenham considering being hampered a few hurdles out.The horse won well at Navan which is Irelands most similar track to Cheltenham and you can bet J. Carr will have it ready but massive improvement is needed to tackle the rest

mdwexford

knighted wrote:

yes md last time we checked this is an irish forum ,and home to the best raceshorses in the world also -u start off ur comment by dismissing sublimity-thats fair enuff as i said earlier we dont know a lot about him and pitched his name in to gauge reactions -but then u say -"at the end of the day its whoever gets their horse there 100% on the day and has luck in running "

does this not apply to sublimity -if he turns up 100% and gets the luck in running that he didnt get last year do u not think he has what it takes to finish in the top 3 or 4 -personally i dont know but i was impressed with his run last year and that race is a good feeder to the champion hurdle and bearing in mind he only finished three and three quaters lenghts behind ur selection straw bear -having met trouble in running-i think its a bit wrong to dismiss him entirely
if nothing else it is a good trading option as think he into 50s with pp and 55 on bf no way will he start bigger than 20s come the day

i await ur wrath md

ok pal ill bite

sublimity has never done anything of note to rank him as a contender so my quote didnt apply to him. Straw Bear has improved around 20lbs since the Sup Nov, Sublimitys runs have been getting worse since Cheltenham.

ty..;)

mdwexford

Colonel Sanders wrote:

First of all if straw bear has a chance so does sublimity on the sureme novice form from last year. You could make a case that sublimity was overpriced at 100/1, his true price probably nearer the 40 or 50/1 mark. Lets not forget this only implies he has a 2-2.5% chance of winning the champion. For what its worth neither will be in the first 4 IMO.

Most people here acknowledge DC's chance but the over riding opinion, which i agree with, is that he should not be favourite for the race. My reasons for this stance have already been outlined.

Sure isn't horse racing and betting on horses in particular a game of opinions lads

on his Supreme Novices form from last year Straw Bear has no chance, the fact that he has improved over 20lbs since that run is why hes a contender. Sublimity has 26lbs to find with Straw Bear on official ratings. he wont even run in the CH anyway, run him in the county hurdle or something where he might actually have a hope.

knighted

take ur point on straw bear as a contender-but where does jazz messanger fit into this -
sublimity had a virus so couldnt run to improve his mark -time will tell

Hoofer

Straw bear certainly has improved, but still does not figure on the list of top CH horses.This horse will be ready though for a crack at Ch, hard to know will he come up the hill with the rest at that pace, might just lack the experience

Sublimity

Ok,

Oh my...

Well, to be honest I hate these sort of things... but after seeing the comments here (google) I had to register and reply..

Most of you guys need to firstly READ the form and secondly LOOK at the race...

and thirdly, only two things ever came out of Wexford.., KNACKERS and STRAWBERRIES... and a strawberry can't type...

We'll see come the 13th of March... you'll all see...

SUB.

Hoofer

Hey Sub, How do you feel after ur winning performance at navan?

mdwexford

Sublimity wrote:

Ok,

Oh my...

Well, to be honest I hate these sort of things... but after seeing the comments here (google) I had to register and reply..

Most of you guys need to firstly READ the form and secondly LOOK at the race...

and thirdly, only two things ever came out of Wexford.., KNACKERS and STRAWBERRIES... and a strawberry can't type...

We'll see come the 13th of March... you'll all see...

SUB.

ftb do your job please pal

ban this person

Hoofer

Ya Sub, Chill out with the Wexford remarks, were only talking bout horses here

mdwexford

knighted wrote:

take ur point on straw bear as a contender-but where does jazz messanger fit into this -
sublimity had a virus so couldnt run to improve his mark -time will tell

well SB was under the weather in the Christmans Hurdle so the form doesnt amount to a whole lot. in saying that JM was immpressive but i just get the feeling hes not up to top class conditions races. another handicapper imo.

knighted

ignore the newbie kn objock -if he can reply with reasoning for or against sublimity or any horse for that matter it would help -but u do seem to get picked on a lot md-people seem not to like brutal honesty for some reason -its a debate at the end of the day-

knighted

Sublimity wrote:

Ok,

Oh my...

Well, to be honest I hate these sort of things... but after seeing the comments here (google) I had to register and reply..

Most of you guys need to firstly READ the form and secondly LOOK at the race...

and thirdly, only two things ever came out of Wexford.., KNACKERS and STRAWBERRIES... and a strawberry can't type...

We'll see come the 13th of March... you'll all see...

SUB.

are u mr carr or mr henessy by any chance? either that or u live close to the curragh

Colonel Sanders

fade2black wrote:

What a heap of bullshit.

Just telling you what a syndicate member said. His opinion, not mine.

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote:

on his Supreme Novices form from last year Straw Bear has no chance, the fact that he has improved over 20lbs since that run is why hes a contender. Sublimity has 26lbs to find with Straw Bear on official ratings. he wont even run in the CH anyway, run him in the county hurdle or something where he might actually have a hope.

On form from last year there was not much between straw bear and sublimity. Had sublimity not been hampered in the supreme he'd have finished a lot closer and was only 4l behind straw bear at punchestown. Obviously straw bear has improved this year but who's to say sublimity hasn't also. Winning an egg and spoon race by 20l proves nothing but we won't know til the 14th of march.

Btw I just want to repeat that I think both have no chance of winning the champion.

Colonel Sanders

sjones wrote:

Heh. Your mate should have told him where to go. Was that particular member of the syndicate not at Leopardstown last week? He has his head in the clouds if he doesn't see Hardy as a threat.

yes he was at leopardstown, that where he spoke to him. Possibly a hint that Brave inca wasn't fully wound up for the AIG (please note David Hyland amongst others were laying the horse at 6/4 at the off and there wasn't a bean for it) or possibly the syndicate member being over optimistic.

He never said that hardy isn't a threat just that they're confident of reversing form in march and sees macs joy as a far bigger threat.