Festival Handicap Fancies

Colonel Sanders

All the talk so far (justifiably) has centered around the conditions races but I have probably made more money from handicaps over the last 3-4 years at Cheltenham. Just wondering had anyone any sneaky ones for the handicaps in March?

I feel Vintage treasure is being lined up for a tilt at the grand annual chase. He's a classy enough beast and Davy Russell didn't look too interested at leopardstown on Sunday. Trainer holds him in high regard and he's sure to be feasibly handicapped due to his relatively modest runs over the larger obstacles. Only a matter of time before C Byrnes lands a Cheltenham gamble and I think this could be it.

easytiger!

Yeah I thought Davy was being a bit tender the last day. Byrnes probably changed his mind when he saw Donn McLean had it tipped:rolleyes:

mdwexford

i was just thinking the same thing funnily enough.

surely theres a few plot jobs being lined up, someone must know something.
i cant think of any handicap blots at the mo

fade2black

Ah yes...if someone knows of another sky's the limit could they tell us all please.

easytiger!

When do entries for these races have to be in? Was looking thru Moore's string there but nothing jumping out at me:(

The jock

The following two are my handicap fanices for cheltenham

The Nicky Henderson trained Oedipe
Arthur Moore trained Bon Temps Ruler

Colonel Sanders

fade2black wrote:

Ah yes...if someone knows of another sky's the limit could they tell us all please.

TBH fade I was thinking sky's the limit could well be going for a repeat job in the jewson novices........

easytiger!

Millanymare got an exercise ride in the 2.30 in Fairyhouse, first handicap run over fences over a trip way too short for him. His winning form is on good ground but I'll be interested to see if Martin gives him any Cheltenham entry. Surely has something in mind anyway:cool:

Colonel Sanders

I also think new alco has an outstanding chance in the william hill chase on the 1st day. Has v good course form and his run behind exotic dancer in november suggests he could still be well handicapped. Surely he can't be put up too much for his last run on pillar day as it was effectively a flat race for the last mile or so. If he can brush up on his jumping 'he'll be one of my bankers of the meeting.

Morgans

Tysou will win the Grand Annual.

Colonel Sanders

Tysou's handicapped up to his eyeballs and will be vulnerable to a younger more unexposed horse.

Morgans

Been laid out for it. But your fears are valid.

I dont suppose you'd like a side bet Tysou vs Vintage Treasure for finishing position in the Grand Annual??

Colonel Sanders

No way can I give an answer til I see the weights which will confirm/unconfirm my thoughts that vintage treasure may be extremely well handicapped.

Tysou was PU last year off a mark of 147 and has only dropped 3lbs in the ratings, he's not for me in a handicap thats usually as hot as the grand annual.

Crumbs

Two Pipe-trained horses that are definitely better than their handicap marks:

Commercial Flyer - looks good for the William Hill Handicap Chase. Needs to have improved his jumping though.

My Immortal - still a novice for this season so has other options but I think the County Hurdle could be the plan.

masterK

easytiger! wrote:

Millanymare got an exercise ride in the 2.30 in Fairyhouse, first handicap run over fences over a trip way too short for him. His winning form is on good ground but I'll be interested to see if Martin gives him any Cheltenham entry. Surely has something in mind anyway:cool:

Off a chase mark of 86 I'll be very surprised to see Millanymare get in at Cheltenham, she'd need to be a few pound higher to even get into the Foxhunters.

She is a very well handicapped horse judging by his hurdling mark but that was also the case last April in a Handicap at Thurles on good ground. I thought she was a good thing and backed accordingly. She was definitely not just out for a race that day.

Sizzler

I tend to agree with Alan King here....Lounaos has seriously impressed me this year, not entirely disgraced in the AIG against older and top class opposition, the filles allowance will come in handy too

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/07/02/06/RACING_Katchit.html

BobbyD10

Will Aran Concerto appear in the Supreme Novices (which does look easier) or the Ballymore we will learn more Saturday. Meade's decision could cost alot of ppl money.

Crumbs

In my continuing quest for Pipe stable handicap snips, I've come across Quick.

He runs tomorrow at Newbury and I expect him to run like he has for the past two seasons - crap. As a result, his official rating has dropped from a high of 142 to 129. Based on previous form, he's capable of winning off that mark.

The Pertemps Final looks the race for him. He finished 3rd in it in 2005 off an effective mark of 133 and he was well down the field in it last year off 137. This year, he could be in on 124 or lower (taking into account the 5lbs jockey's claim if Glassonbury rides him) which would give him a nice low weight.

Despite his poor form for the last year and a half, the stable has continued with him. He's only a 7yo so it's unlikely that he's on a total downgrade. He goes best on good or better ground and he has a lot of course experience including winning over C&D in Dec '04. Could go off a big price on the day.

meriwether

Does anyone remember Fontanesi from C'ham 2005?
That was the Pipe/handicap stroke personified.
He won the Vincent O brien off ten sone, and just sneaked into the handicap.
16/1 he won at. He was raced in trips that didn't suit for a year, came nowhere, and his handicap plummeted.

00dyel

These are my picks at the moment- if you have other suggestions feel free to let me know.
William Hill Handicap Chase: Juveigneur
Sporting Index Handicap Chase: Heads on the Ground
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle: Any Suggestions?
Coral Cup: New Field
Kim Muir: Garde Champetre
Jewson Handicap Chase: Oedipe
Racing Post Plate: Little Brick
National Hunt Challenge Cup: Gungadu
Pertemps Handicap Hurdle: Any Suggestions?
Foxhunter Chase: Whyso Mayo
Grand Annual: Saintsaire
County Hurlde: Carraciola

terry mac

Is that Le Volfoni still lugging around the place. Never have I felt so sick as when he fell last year looking all over a winner. My friend had pneumonia and was sitting curled up on the floor in corner of bar in Best Mate enclosure by the end of the day. Still maintains he would have been grand if that yoke had won. I put it down to the ameteur jock they had up. The great thing about some of the Cheltenham handicaps is that a horse who's won last two times isn't automatically going to be a short price.

Colonel Sanders

I like new alco in the willhill and saintsaire in the grand annual.

No vintage treasure in the grand annual and unfortunately skys the limit doesn't run in the jewson.

fade2black

terry mac wrote:

Is that Le Volfoni still lugging around the place. Never have I felt so sick as when he fell last year looking all over a winner. My friend had pneumonia and was sitting curled up on the floor in corner of bar in Best Mate enclosure by the end of the day. Still maintains he would have been grand if that yoke had won. I put it down to the ameteur jock they had up. The great thing about some of the Cheltenham handicaps is that a horse who's won last two times isn't automatically going to be a short price.

Snap. I told all my mates to back it last year and had a nice bit on each way. I couldn't watch it again when RUK showed the festival again last week

Maruco

I agree with Quick for the Pertemps Final. He looks absolutely laid out for the race. Others to keep an eye on are Hautclan, and I just have a feeling that a part-owned JP horse is being aimed at the race with Rhinestone keeping him in the handicap proper with many plot jobs having to run off the wrong mark!

jimmy6904

Fancy Pedrobob in the VOB handicap hurdle. He is off a featherweight of 10 stone. Had a good run last time out at Newbury in the totesport trophy. Stayed on well last time at Cheltenham up the hill which is always positive. Handles all types of ground and his trainer is fairly shrewd. 16/1 in PP.

The jock

William Hill Handicap Chase:

Juveigneur:Has 2lb lower to carry this year(11st 3lb) than when it was 2nd, caught close from the finish by Dun Diore.This horse has the stanima as it showed by coming a close 3rd in the Welsh National and Juveigneur a course winner has the class to be running in the Gold Cup as it showed when it was a close second to the Gold Cup contender State of Play.Knowwhere is a intersting outsider who was second to Exotic dancer during the year and likes it around this course.I also think New Alco will be finishing strongly up the hill.

Sporting Index Handicap Chase:

Il de boitron: is getting a stone turnaround with native jack on last years race and 9lbs turn around on spot the difference on last years race when it was fourth beat only 12 lengths first to fourth at 100/1.I think its a real good bet in the race e.w at around 50/1.It needed the run last time out which was over a trip too short.It was a fast finishing 4th last year and should run better this year off lower weight and will have ground in favour that it didnt last year.It was 3rd in the La Touche also so it definatly stays and jumps well enough.

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle: Risk Runner Lord Adonis have both being running well all year and are outsiders with chances.Pancake will be tough to beat.

Coral Cup:

Kawagino:who was 7th in last years Champion Hurdle is a very intersting contender off 10 stone 1lb.It was a fast finishing last time in the Totesport hurdle at Newbury and will love the step up in trip.

Powerstation:Has only 10stone to carry and could be the handicap blot of the year.This same horse was second to Black Jack Ketchum at last years festival and showed on its last run that he still retains enough ability to win a race like this.Penny Pictures is a Pipe horse that could be nicely in the handicap aslo with 9stone 11lbs.

Kim Muir:

Wolf Creek:If it gets into the race it will may be my festival nap.It looked all over the winner of the 4mile 1 furlong National Hunt Chase at last years festival turning into the straight but it did not get the trip but it still was a close 4th.It hasnt ran since last years punchestown festival but the horse runs well fresh so Ive heard.Patricksninetheenth also is a interesting horse who runs well fresh.

Jewson Handicap Chase:

Oedipe:This Ex French horse won on its English debut by a wide wide margin.Its gone up 20lbs for that win which might not even see it into the race handicap but if it scraps in watch out!As for the irish horses in this Vic Venturi ran a eye catching race last time out.

Racing Post Plate:

If Mansony takes on this race off 10stone 13lbs rather than the Queen Mother Chase it should run very well for Arthur Moore.If the course specialist Vodka Bleu came back to form it would be a danger.

National Hunt Challenge Cup:

Ballytrim: Has been crying out for a trip all year long wheather or not it has the class to beat Gungadu is another question.

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle:

Quick and Buachill Eile are horses ive been following all year long and Quick may use its front running stlye and boot on clear off its lower weight than it has carryied in this race for the past 2 years.Buachill eile finished like a train last time out behind adamant approach and has run well around the course before.

Foxhunter Chase:I fancyied WhySo Mayo all last year for the race and this year my fancy is Bobbawn who has come in for some support recently.

Grand Annual:

I backed Zum See in the race last year and it ran a cracker,i think its a better horse this year and could be placed to good effect.Hasty Prince also has been running well all year could get in the shake up.

County Hurlde:

Carraciola:Off 10 stone 2lbs i cant see it being out of the first 5.Ever since it reverted back to hurdles from fences this year it has improved alot.It was second to Desert Quest in a big handicap hurdle and a close 4th to Heathcote last time out in the Totesport trophy.

Mister Hight has been running well all year long with good efforts in the Pierse hurlde and totesport trophey last time when it shown that he would prefer a faster gallop which it is most likely to get in the County Hurdle.