Newmill back over fences

easytiger!

THE reigning holder of the Queen Mother Champion Chase crown could come face to face with a serious pretender to his throne at Punchestown on Sunday when Newmill and Nickname are poised to lock horns in a fascinating clash of Ireland's fastest chasers.

Really looking forward to seeing Newmill over the bigger obstacles, very patiently handled again this year. Possibly one of the most under-rated chasers in training. Can't see connections being over-hard on him though so Nickname might be the pick

knighted

should be a good race -moscow flyer running in the charity race at punchestown festival this year

mdwexford

by very "patiently handled" do you mean a complete waste of a horse by a shockingly bad trainer??

knighted

lol - u remind me of myself

fr wishy washy

mdwexford wrote:

by very "patiently handled" do you mean a complete waste of a horse by a shockingly bad trainer??

OTT comment imo,Newmill won two Grade 1 Chases (including the big one) last season and is a better horse when kept fresh.

Colonel Sanders

horse put up 2 great performances to win 2 grade 1's last spring but how did trainer not first exploit a handicap mark of 134? Imagine the fun Tony Martin or Charles Byrnes would have had with this horse before going for G1 races. Could have landed a colossol touch in something ike the Victor Chandler.

I fairness I respect Marti Brassil in handling Nickname, acknowledging that the festival is not the be all and end all and is r€pepared to miss out if he doesn't feel the going will suit his horse. There are an awful lot of good 2m conditions chases in Ireland to compensate patient connections for leaving the festival alone.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote:

by very "patiently handled" do you mean a complete waste of a horse by a shockingly bad trainer??

Newmill won the Queen Mother and at Punchestown last year following a similar campaign last year. This was done by JJ Murphy, having got the horse from another trainer Tom Ger O'Leary the previous summer. One of the reasons why Jon Joesph got the horse was due to the horses poor performances under its previous trainer. My guess is that the owners were satisfied with the horses progression to date.

Given that the horse is better on better ground, why would you run him mid winter.

One completely incorrect implication from Mdwexford.

As for Colonel Sanders query about the Victor Chandler. Pretty certain that was connections plans for Mansony this year, and look what happened. Its not all about lining horses up for gambles. Thank God. Martin has ruined more good horses than its worth. David's Lad wasnt allowed to run on its merits for more than 2 years to get a Grand National. To the extent that he was banned from the race for non-trying. As i was saying, I'm pretty sure connections werent wishing they had won the Victor Chandler at the end of hte season.

Taff

I guess winning the QM and at 16/1 (much bigger a/p) is as good a touch as you get

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote:

by very "patiently handled" do you mean a complete waste of a horse by a shockingly bad trainer??

an obvious trolling attempt.
(from a guy who still considers Iktitaf a genuine champion Hurdle contender)

This guy has been ripping everyones opinions to shreds for the past while his own ideas are "flawed" to say the least

mdwexford

knighted wrote:

lol - u remind me of myself

ill take that as a compliment knighted....:D

mdwexford

fr wishy washy wrote:

OTT comment imo,Newmill won two Grade 1 Chases (including the big one) last season and is a better horse when kept fresh.

so because he won 2 Grade 1 chases the horse shouldnt jump fences for 10 months. can you show me some evidence of him being better fresh.

Morgans

Newmill's record on good ground or better. 191211

The 9 was when he went nuts under an amateur in a Tipperary bumper. The second was when he was beaten by Accordion Etoile in a novice hurdle. He is unbeaten in chases on good ground on better.The last two races on good ground were when winning the Queen Mother Champion Chase and when winning the Kerrygold Champion Chase at Punchestown.

I think this is the main reason why you dont see him running week in week out between November and March, and one of the reasons why his campaign is remarkably well tailored.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote:

Newmill won the Queen Mother and at Punchestown last year following a similar campaign last year. This was done by JJ Murphy, having got the horse from another trainer Tom Ger O'Leary the previous summer. One of the reasons why Jon Joesph got the horse was due to the horses poor performances under its previous trainer. My guess is that the owners were satisfied with the horses progression to date.

Given that the horse is better on better ground, why would you run him mid winter.

One completely incorrect implication from Mdwexford.

As for Colonel Sanders query about the Victor Chandler. Pretty certain that was connections plans for Mansony this year, and look what happened. Its not all about lining horses up for gambles. Thank God. Martin has ruined more good horses than its worth. David's Lad wasnt allowed to run on its merits for more than 2 years to get a Grand National. To the extent that he was banned from the race for non-trying. As i was saying, I'm pretty sure connections werent wishing they had won the Victor Chandler at the end of hte season.

the horse took some time to get to grips with fences and his success last year was in no way related to the change of trainer imo.

he has won on all types of ground but perhaps there is a point that he might be better on good ground.

there were plenty of race Newmill could have gone for this season, Tingle Creek, Desert Orchid Chase, Dial a bet Chase etc but instead Murphy decides to run him in the Morgiana Hurdle on this heavy ground he apparently hates which was a complete waste of time.

last year his preparation included two 2 mile hurdle races which he had no chance of winning. Now for arguments sake lets say the horse gets injured the week before Cheltenham. its been a complete waste of a season. this used to annoy me with henrietta knight and Best Mate as well. Cheltenham may be the mecca of jump racing but its not the be all and end all for the season. there are plenty of other Grade 1 races all year with plenty of prestige and prize money. Murphys handling of Newmill has IMO which i am more than entitled to Morgans been absolutely shocking.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote:

Newmill's record on good ground or better. 191211

The 9 was when he went nuts under an amateur in a Tipperary bumper. The second was when he was beaten by Accordion Etoile in a novice hurdle. He is unbeaten in chases on good ground on better.The last two races on good ground were when winning the Queen Mother Champion Chase and when winning the Kerrygold Champion Chase at Punchestown.

I think this is the main reason why you dont see him running week in week out between November and March, and one of the reasons why his campaign is remarkably well tailored.

four of those runs were 3 years ago. he didnt run on good ground for 2 1/2 years yet won 6 times so i think its fair to say he goes on soft. his novice hurdle campaign he ran on soft ground all year with great success.

Morgans

There was nothing in Newmill's form as a novice to suggest that he was Champion Chase material. The distant last of five behind War of Attrition as a novice was the final straw for the owners, who had seen their horse win one Grade 2 (a poorly contested on over 2m5f on heavy ground). Backed him that day meself.

To say that the change of trainers meant nothing is very brave indeed. And to suggest that the change in campaign has meant nothing to the horse is also brave. (polite word for wrong) The horse has improved upwards of 2 stone on what he had shown as a novice. Of course, as a novice, he ran 7 times, winning twice, missed cheltenham anyway, and won 30K sterling circa for his owners.

When trained by JJ Murphy and given a different campaign, one which possibly concentrates on the horse being right for the big days (at Cheltenham and the late spring festivals) where ground might be in his favour, he runs in a total of five races (3 chases) and wins 270K sterling for his owners.

One of the main worries for Kauto Star is the fact that he has had three hard Grade 1 chases in soft ground.

You are entitled to your opinion, you I am also entitled to beleive that you are blatantly wrong. Very wrong in this case. I agree that Chelt shouldnt be the be all and end all, but it is not just about Cheltenham, March is the time of year that its best for your horse to be in form - Chelt, Aintree, Fairyhouse, Punchestown, Sandown even all come on the back of each other, between March and May. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and to say that a horse who achieves his objectives and wins the QM and at Punchestown. (the Tingle creek isnt worth as much as the Punchestown race he won at) as being absolutely shocking leads me to believe that you dont know as much about racing as you think you do.

As for the merits of running a horse continually in the Tingle Creek, the Dial a Bet chase or the Desert Orchid Chase (not going to contest both) in ground that doesnt perform to his best in, and potentially leave the races that he has a real chance of winning behind in DEcember, it would be evidence of a poor campaign.

Lets look at the horses he will be up against in March and the amount of runs they have had so far this year

VPU - 2 runs - Tingle Creek when trainer said he was unfit - Desert ORchid Chase
Well Chief - 0 - Unraced for more than a year and a half
Foreman - 2 runs - one prep in a hurdles in France, then the Desert Orchid Chase
Ashley Brook - 1 - handicap hurdle at CHelt last saturday
Nickname - 4 - probably running more frequently, as it has been mentioned, needs soft ground, and hoping for it come Cheltenham time
In Compliance - 2 -
Monet's Garden - 2 -
Accordion Etoile - 0 -
Sporazene - 2 - 2 four runner races
After that we are looking at horses who are 25/1 plus.

March is the time to be right.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote:

four of those runs were 3 years ago. he didnt run on good ground for 2 1/2 years yet won 6 times so i think its fair to say he goes on soft. his novice hurdle campaign he ran on soft ground all year with great success.

He goes on soft and will run on soft again, if it happens to be soft at Chelt, but he is a far better horse on good ground. One of the reasons, is that he handles it better than horses who simply need soft ground. Nickname, Foreman for instance.

One of the reasons why he was so disappointing as a novice chaser for a different trainer is that the horse had the stuffing knocked out of it running over the wrong distance in the wrong ground.

Horses like Accordion Etoile and Cloone River have been stuck in their stables for a lot of their careers (partly because of injury) and partly because it is doing more harm than good to run them into the ground in soft/heavy ground. Absolutely pointless.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote:

There was nothing in Newmill's form as a novice to suggest that he was Champion Chase material. The distant last of five behind War of Attrition as a novice was the final straw for the owners, who had seen their horse win one Grade 2 (a poorly contested on over 2m5f on heavy ground). Backed him that day meself.

To say that the change of trainers meant nothing is very brave indeed. And to suggest that the change in campaign has meant nothing to the horse is also brave. (polite word for wrong) The horse has improved upwards of 2 stone on what he had shown as a novice. Of course, as a novice, he ran 7 times, winning twice, missed cheltenham anyway, and won 30K sterling circa for his owners.

When trained by JJ Murphy and given a different campaign, one which possibly concentrates on the horse being right for the big days (at Cheltenham and the late spring festivals) where ground might be in his favour, he runs in a total of five races (3 chases) and wins 270K sterling for his owners.

One of the main worries for Kauto Star is the fact that he has had three hard Grade 1 chases in soft ground.

You are entitled to your opinion, you I am also entitled to beleive that you are blatantly wrong. Very wrong in this case. I agree that Chelt shouldnt be the be all and end all, but it is not just about Cheltenham, March is the time of year that its best for your horse to be in form - Chelt, Aintree, Fairyhouse, Punchestown, Sandown even all come on the back of each other, between March and May. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and to say that a horse who achieves his objectives and wins the QM and at Punchestown. (the Tingle creek isnt worth as much as the Punchestown race he won at) as being absolutely shocking leads me to believe that you dont know as much about racing as you think you do.

As for the merits of running a horse continually in the Tingle Creek, the Dial a Bet chase or the Desert Orchid Chase (not going to contest both) in ground that doesnt perform to his best in, and potentially leave the races that he has a real chance of winning behind in DEcember, it would be evidence of a poor campaign.

Lets look at the horses he will be up against in March and the amount of runs they have had so far this year

VPU - 2 runs - Tingle Creek when trainer said he was unfit - Desert ORchid Chase
Well Chief - 0 - Unraced for more than a year and a half
Foreman - 2 runs - one prep in a hurdles in France, then the Desert Orchid Chase
Ashley Brook - 1 - handicap hurdle at CHelt last saturday
Nickname - 4 - probably running more frequently, as it has been mentioned, needs soft ground, and hoping for it come Cheltenham time
In Compliance - 2 -
Monet's Garden - 2 -
Accordion Etoile - 0 -
Sporazene - 2 - 2 four runner races
After that we are looking at horses who are 25/1 plus.

March is the time to be right.

there was a lot in his novice form which suggested to me that he would go on the be a decent horse.
he has been campaigned like this once so i think it is "brave" to straightaway think its a fantastic idea. to compare his mark as a novice hurdler to his form as a second season chaser is pointless as it is to say he earned more prize money last year than in his novice year. you are aware prize money for novices is far less yeah.

If you think Kauto Star has had 3 hard races you dont have a clue what your on about.

If Newmill achieves his objectives this season then maybe you have a point to his campaign plan but i would much rather be giving it a go in races like the tingle creek and dial a bet than getting hopped off in hurdle races. maybe you can tell me what the point of these hurdle races are as opposed to a racecourse gallop??? btw the tingle creek is far more prestigious than the over the top chase at punchestown.

What was the difference between running him in the dial a bet as opposed to the morgiana???

obviously VPU is going to be half fit when its his first run of the season, are you expecting him to be 100%. was Newmill fully fit in the morgiana??
the argument about his campaign is good but if you are trying to say he has the best chance of winning the champion chase by naming the above horses and their runs then you are wrong. he had a soft time of it last year and hasnt a prayer in this years renewal.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote:

He goes on soft and will run on soft again, if it happens to be soft at Chelt, but he is a far better horse on good ground. One of the reasons, is that he handles it better than horses who simply need soft ground. Nickname, Foreman for instance.

One of the reasons why he was so disappointing as a novice chaser for a different trainer is that the horse had the stuffing knocked out of it running over the wrong distance in the wrong ground.

Horses like Accordion Etoile and Cloone River have been stuck in their stables for a lot of their careers (partly because of injury) and partly because it is doing more harm than good to run them into the ground in soft/heavy ground. Absolutely pointless.

i agree with you there is no point in running horses on unsuitable ground but my point is its not like hes putting him away for a good ground campaign.hes running him on heavy ground in hurdle races which hes coming nowhere in and it has to be denting the horses confidence.

knighted

and accordian etoile wont be running in the champion chase this year;)

knighted

plus thats prob the only time i will pay u a compliment md -im usually a narky barsteward -lol -but i do see ur point and agree to a certain extent but its good to have conflicting points of view on the board it opens up good discussions -

keepitquiet

19 Jan 2006 Thurles (20Y/Sft,RPR155)
'He will always be a bridesmaid to the likes of Brave Inca over hurdles so he will stay over fences. The Champion Chase seems to be weakening and the better ground at Cheltenham will suit this horse. He is best fresh so he might not run again before then.'- John Joseph Murphy, trainer

-clearly the trainer knows his horse is a chaser and is BEST FRESH.

15 Mar 2006 Cheltenham (16Gd,RPR172)
'I thought he would in the first three for sure. I was very confident without being arrogantly confident and everything went great today. I was afraid he might get buzzed up and start thinking about things if Central House took him on, but he was still able to dictate it and that was the plan. It was only two weeks ago we decided to run. I was still contemplating changing to the Champion Hurdle then because he is a totally different animal now to the one that met Brave Inca and Macs Joy at Christmas. We were trying to build his confidence for the past year, but running in the Champion would not have been better than this'. - J J Murphy

- was obviously over exicited when he said this! would have been foolish to run him in the champion hurdle.

25 Apr 2006 Punchestown (16Gd,RPR171)
'A good horse and a gifted one. Newmill won over 2 1/2 miles this season and I don't agree with people who say he doesn't stay. He is a relentless galloper and has a high cruising speed that allows him to burn off the opposition. It is too early to be thinking about that [King George], he will probably have a couple of runs over hurdles, like he did this season. That [ACC Bank Champion Hurdle] would be a bit greedy. He was declared as precaution in case smothing went wrong early today' - John Muprhy, trainer

- clearly the trainer stuck to his guns and started off with hurdles and likes to keep the horse fresh. whether he is right or wrong about the horse needing to be fresh im sure he knows better than us all!

clearly the owner is happy for the horse to prepare for cheltenham all yr and they believe they have a great horse. personally i dont think the horse will win, but you have to look at it like this, if they can get the horse to win 3 champion chases than it will be an achievement that will be remmebered and its got a few champion chases left in it. like how best mate was ran... why run a horse alot when you believe it will be able to win at cheltenham if it is fresh. you risk it falling and getting injured and not being able to win at cheltenham, why not go for history?

Morgans

mdwexford wrote:

i agree with you there is no point in running horses on unsuitable ground but my point is its not like hes putting him away for a good ground campaign.hes running him on heavy ground in hurdle races which hes coming nowhere in and it has to be denting the horses confidence.

I think he is putting him away for a good ground campaign. Like all ground dependent campaigns, they can easily go wrong. Anything from weather to watering policies, injury, can waste a year's planning. I think it was clear from the trainers quote that Keepitquiet put up that connections had been thinking of keeping the horse over hurdles - due to the lack of confidence that the horse had over fences after his previous trainer. This wasnt neccessarily his fault, all his horses were wrong all that season - including his other high class horse Scarthy Lad.

I do think that the work done pre-christmas by the trainer of these good ground horses is minimal, and are often run over hurdles in small field conditions races to a) give the horse a good run out at a course to make him realise what its all about, and b) in a setting where he is not going to suffer from a serious fall or interference from a large field, where he can be eased down when he gets tired and gain some benefit from the exercise without the risks of being unfit jumping fences.

After Christmas, things get a bit more serious and the horse is trained in earnest, not just kept ticking over. While it wouldnt be ideal to Cheltenham without a serious racecourse workout, this weekends race looks an ideal way to me to set the horse up for Cheltenham, even if he is not 100% fit and on soft ground. It will do more good at a time he needs to be nearing peak condition. I think there are question marks whether he can retain his title, but I think given the trainers record with the horse, you have to accept that he will be going to Cheltenham in the best condition possible.

Is Macs Joy being given an absolutely shocking campaign this season? I would think that one of the positives about the horse is that he has missed several battles with good horses and will arrive at Cheltenham a fresher horse than most in the Champion Hurdle. Newmill will hopefully arrive at Cheltenham fresh.

I didnt really like the way Best Mate was campaigned, (eventhough I dont think he was hidden in the way some say - the last five Gold Cup winners were having their first run of the calendar year in the Gold Cup) and it would be great to see these horses more often, but it was no coincedence that such a campaign helped Best Mate to become the only horse in 35 years to retain the Gold Cup.

easytiger!

Opinions are going to differ on how this horse is handled but the trainer is obviously aware of what suits this horse, coming from a small stable situation when he gets good material he's going to mind it. I don't suppose the ground down in Cork was any better than anywhere else so it wouldn't make any sense for Murphy to be training him hard in ground he doesn't like for races that aren't his target. As for the landing a big touch in inferior chases, gimme a break, there were plenty of cute Cork hoors with 40/1 dockets the first year he won. The likes of Byrnes are admittedly great men to land a touch, but does he have any greater Grade 1 success? (and there are a few people in this game for whom punting isn't the be-all and end-all. mad i know )

mdwexford

its an interesting debate which was kept pretty civil on the whole
it would be very boring if we all agreed on everything and we need more interesting threads on here.

i guess by the end of the season we'll know whether it has been a successful campaign for Newmill.

Colonel Sanders

I agree its not all about landing touches but to bypss prestigious races with a top class horse just for cheltenham is a bit wasteful IMO. Running off 134 last year Newmill could have fallen over twice and still won pulling a cart which would not have compromised his cheltenham chances one iota. There is far too much emphasis on the Festival with a lot of big purses being contested by sub standard horses due to the public's obsession with Cheltenham. it used to be a case that horses were put away for a few weeks to keep em fresh for march now its sometimes a matter of months. As i said thats why I actually admire Martin Brasil, for not suffering from Cheltenham myopia.

Morgans

The only reason why Nickname is not campaigned the same way as Newmill is the ground. Nickname will win that Dial A Bet Chase at Leoparstown for the next three years at least. Newmill no matter how much he tries wont. Newmill is far from certain to run at this years festival (like last year) due to the ground. He has a chance this year becuse of a change of policy with the cheltenham clerks of the course. You will probably see Newmill and not Nickname at Punchestown.

ChuckProphet

RichieLawlor wrote:

an obvious trolling attempt.
(from a guy who still considers Iktitaf a genuine champion Hurdle contender)

This guy has been ripping everyones opinions to shreds for the past while his own ideas are "flawed" to say the least

I don't see how u can dismiss Iktitaf for the ch after one bad run, where obviously something was wrong. Just look at the horses he's beaten so far. Most still think BJK is a certainty even after his last run!!

fade2black

ChuckProphet wrote:

I don't see how u can dismiss Iktitaf for the ch after one bad run, where obviously something was wrong. Just look at the horses he's beaten so far. Most still think BJK is a certainty even after his last run!!

I make it two bad runs. He's also had quite a busy campaign

fr wishy washy

fade2black wrote:

I make it two bad runs. He's also had quite a busy campaign

I think running him in that 2 mile slog at the Curragh at the back end of the flat did him no favours.Pat Smullen gave him (he had to) a very hard ride.

easytiger!

When did this turn into a CH thread? Going back to the original point any views on today's race, hard to know what to make of Newmill, but he didn't look to be settling and the ground didn't appear that heavy. Nickname showed a good turn of foot again(emerged from the murkiness) but surely won't get the ground he needs at Cheltenham

knighted

nickname running at naas in two weeks time-ground was soft couldnt see much cause of the fog but newmill was just imitating moscow flyer -every champion chaser has to fall at punchestown -its the law -lol

mdwexford

the campaign is in trouble now.....

hurdle races have ruined his jumping

masterK

mdwexford wrote:

the campaign is in trouble now.....

hurdle races have ruined his jumping

That's actually a very good point, I often find horses that have run over hurdles get used to the rhythm of a hurdles race and the smaller obstacles which they can usually jump without too much effort, then when put back over fences it takes them a couple of chases to get their jumping back up to scratch.

Morgans

Damned if you do, damned if you dont type of situation. A campaign of this type worked last year, and while obviously not ideal, he isnt out of the QM campaign yet. (I think the ground might scupper his chance at the festival in any case) but I dont have any issues with horses switching between hurdles and fences. It depends on the individual horse. Of course, we dont know how well or how poorly he jumped before the fall.

But I couldnt believe the price that Nickname drifted to on the day. Silly that he was touching evens.

fr wishy washy

Morgans wrote:

But I couldnt believe the price that Nickname drifted to on the day. Silly that he was touching evens.

I think because people thought the ground was drying out and that it wouldn't suit him.It was still very heavy/holding ground when the race started.

Morgans

I know Fr Wishy Washy why people opposed him but I couldnt believe it the extent that they did. Ground doesnt dry out like that in Ireland, and while he is virtually unbeatable on heavy, it was hardly good or faster at race time.

masterK

Very interesting to see Well Chief stand his ground tomorrow. If he's the horse he was 2 years ago he will win the Queen Mother in a canter. The very fact he is making his comeback in such a competitive race suggests he's in good order.

fr wishy washy

Morgans wrote:

I know Fr Wishy Washy why people opposed him but I couldnt believe it the extent that they did. Ground doesnt dry out like that in Ireland, and while he is virtually unbeatable on heavy, it was hardly good or faster at race time.

A lot of people go by what they hear on ATR and they (ATR) were saying (after the second race that day)that it mightn't suit Nickname and a lot of punters out there(particularly across the water) wouldn't be clued in to Irish ground.

Morgans

I dont know if Newmill has to win the Champion Chase like last year to justify the means, but the horse has never been shorter in the betting for the race than now, after his last prep race. And of course, would have been shorter but for the re-ermergence of Well Chief. Interesting the top two in the market had earned less to date this year than those next in the betting, both having just run once over fences.