Hand from William Hill heat

yahoo_moe

I know there's a WH thread already but just wanted to start one to see what people think about this one hand... the details mightn't be 100% but this should pretty much give you the idea:

8-handed, avg. stack 10k, blinds 50-100. Folded round to John Shipley (c. 6.5k) in middle to late position who raises to 400 with K-Q o. Peter Roche (c. 13k) calls behind from button with 9c10c. Flop comes Q-8-x with two clubs so Shipley's got top pair and Roche has flush draw and a gutshot. Shipley leads for 800 and Roche insta-raises to 4k. Shipley pushes all-in and Roche calls (he's pot-committed). No club or J by the river so Shipley doubles up and Roche halves his stack.

My question is: what do people think of Roche's flop raise? He's got 13 outs, so he's about 50% but if that's me, I figure I'm behind as it stands to a pre-flop raise and a c-bet (even if he's only holding A-K) so I just call the 800 against a short stack and see if the turn hits me rather than risking half my above-average stack on the fact that he'll fold. Would my way be too cautious?

careca

He's pushing because he is happy to take the pot there and he might get Shippley to fold the best hand. Shippley still has 5k behind and would fold AK there and might even fold JJ, 1010, 99. If hes called then fine its a race.

Edit to say, if he just calls and his club hits, he probably won't get any more chips from shippley.

ianmc38

I'd play the hand the same way.

Hitman Actual

Looks fine to me... just a semi-bluff raise on the flop, happy to take down the pot with no pair/big draw, and then being committed (as you say) when Shipley pushes. All he's really worried about then is a bigger flush draw, I'd imagine.

If he lose he still has 65BBs, so he's well in the game. If he wins he's in a great position to take it down. Standard. And I don't know the speed of these games, but I'm sure they're along the lines of the Poker Million crapshoots, so you have to take any opportunity to double up.

FWIW, I'd put Peter Roche up there with the best of the Irish in terms of talent, temperament, etc. Definitely one of the best in the country.

yahoo_moe

lenny_leonard wrote:

And I don't know the speed of these games, but I'm sure they're along the lines of the Poker Million crapshoots, so you have to take any opportunity to double up.

FWIW, I'd put Peter Roche up there with the best of the Irish in terms of talent, temperament, etc. Definitely one of the best in the country.

Absolutely, his temperament seems great... commentary suggested the structure was a lot less crapshooty than Poker Million so I guess I'm really wondering if he absolutely had to gamble and risk a step back that he never really recovered from... I'm more into tournaments than cash so it's why I'm asking

I mean, I get that the raise gives him two ways to win (50%ish draw or a Shipley fold) so I can see the attraction and if Shipley pushed on the flop, I can understand the logic of a call (better than even money with a 50% chance to win) but I know that given the chance at a cheap card in those situations, I tend to take it rather than start a race against a shorter-stacked opponent where s/he needs a double-up more than I do...

I agree that calling and hitting a club could shut down my opponent (though I don't think it'll necessarily happen every time) so when I play it my way and take the cheap card for pot odds, does this mean I'm losing value because I'm worrying too much about the 50% of the time I lose the pot?

Hitman Actual

I don't think that he took a 'gamble' at any point in this hand. You could argue against the preflop call maybe, but he had position with a nice speculative hand, with stacks relatively deep (tournament-wise at least). He then makes a good semi-bluff raise on the flop, and a good +EV call on the end.

I think this all comes down to how much of an edge you want in a tournament. If you had QQ, and you knew your opponent had AK, would you call an all-in preflop if you had 13K and the opponent had 6.5K?

yahoo_moe

lenny_leonard wrote:

If you had QQ, and you knew your opponent had AK, would you call an all-in preflop if you had 13K and the opponent had 6.5K?

in a flash... maybe I'm thinking of Roche's hand too much in terms of "unmade hand that's definitely behind" rather than as a "hand with a 50% chance to win"

Well, no more doubts, I'm a believer - I look forward to the ups and downs of playing 50% draws more aggressively

phantom_lord

ianmc38 wrote:

I'd play the hand the same way.

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Gus Ivey

Its all well and good to say you would have played the hand differently after you see the outcome. But if Shipley had of been out drawn, it still would have been a good play. He put Shippley to a desicion for his tournament life, knowing that if he got called he was still a 50-50