Expected Value Forumula's

dvdfan

Im reading a bit about Bet Sizing and expected Value and have a few questions. Is there a poker resource that has formula's and explanations on how to work out different expected value.

Also from the bit im reading in Skalanskys "No Limit Holdem Theory and Practice" and he refers to expected value and a situation occurs where you have the nuts on the river. If you bet $100 he expects to be called x% of the time, if he bets $250 he expects to called x% of the time and if he bets €500 he expects to be called x% of the time.

I was just wondering how personal judgement can affect this. How can we be really sure that they'll call x,y, and z a certain percentage of the time so we leave it down to our own judgement going by what read we have on the player and also based on what hand we think he might have based on the betting previous to this.

If my notes on the player are innacurate due to taking them while he was tilting, someone else was playing on his account etc and/or my reading of his hand was innacurate then are these enough wrong variables to make the Expected Value calculations completely wrong.

Im going to start looking through hand histories and doing formulas to calculate my EV etc because i know, at least for me, that i wouldnt be able to do these calculations during the 30 second time limit, so i presume its a matter of making the calculations often enough that youll commit it to memory eventually.

Im going to play for an hour or two say on tribeca 10c/25c, and then go through all the hand histories after and do EV calculations, do you think this would be a good idea??

I also want to try and think more about what my opponents cards might be instead of just concentrating on my own but the time limit makes this a bit awkward, has anyone any good strategies for this that use that they find helpful.

Also probably a silly question but you know when someone min bets the flop say 25c into a 50c pot after only the sb and bb completed, i have A2s, i miss the flop completely but hes raise is so weak and i dont want to be re-raising to take down a 75c pot. I dont have odds to call as i need to hit my ace approx 14/1 but the call is only 25c which is nothing. I know this is -EV to call but when the raise is so weak and small its tempting. Should i get out of this habit. I know in this circumstances even if i do hit im only going to win a small pot anyway but in general terms this situation can come up quite a bit, should i just fold or keep re-raising to let him know i wont allow him to make weak bets with drawing or marginal hands?

Hitman Actual

I haven't time to read through your post now, but here's a couple of 2+2 links which might help with EV calcs in general. Also, make sure you have pokerstove.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=2997442
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=3069765

eggie

dvdfan wrote:

Im reading a bit about Bet Sizing and expected Value and have a few questions. Is there a poker resource that has formula's and explanations on how to work out different expected value.

Also from the bit im reading in Skalanskys "No Limit Holdem Theory and Practice" and he refers to expected value and a situation occurs where you have the nuts on the river. If you bet $100 he expects to be called x% of the time, if he bets $250 he expects to called x% of the time and if he bets €500 he expects to be called x% of the time.

I was just wondering how personal judgement can affect this. How can we be really sure that they'll call x,y, and z a certain percentage of the time so we leave it down to our own judgement going by what read we have on the player and also based on what hand we think he might have based on the betting previous to this.

These variables are pretty much judgement based. Studying hand histories against players will help you judge what they will call with certain holdings. No need to get into the math while playing though, just make good notes in reference to the pot and his stack, eg. he'll call a 2/3 pot size bet (20 BB) with 2nd pair on river (stack 60BB).

Also probably a silly question but you know when someone min bets the flop say 25c into a 50c pot after only the sb and bb completed, i have A2s, i miss the flop completely but hes raise is so weak and i dont want to be re-raising to take down a 75c pot. I dont have odds to call as i need to hit my ace approx 14/1 but the call is only 25c which is nothing. I know this is -EV to call but when the raise is so weak and small its tempting. Should i get out of this habit. I know in this circumstances even if i do hit im only going to win a small pot anyway but in general terms this situation can come up quite a bit, should i just fold or keep re-raising to let him know i wont allow him to make weak bets with drawing or marginal hands?

Dont think of it as only 25 cent, think of it as one big blind, you are calling one big blind to win 3, with odds of 14/1 - not great. However, if you have a good read and looking ahead thinking you can take it away from him on the turn for example it changes things. When raising you got to consider your folding equity when you have nada,and the opponents range of hands. Lets say in your example you think it is a weak continuation bet from previous plays and raise to 1.00 (4 BB). 70% you reckon he will fold, 30% he calls or reraises and you lose.

EV - (0.7 x 3BB) + (0.3 x -4BB) = 0.9 BB Again judgement based but studying hand histories, player tendencies and making good notes will improve your accuracy. Think in terms of Blinds or in reference to the pot because when you move up levels it will be more than 25 cents and it will be a big leak in your game.

dvdfan

Ok Thanks for the replies, the 2+2 threads were helpful but they refer to all in bets. I donwloaded poker stove but theres no help with it. Does the equity refer to your chances on the next card or by the river??

Anyway i taught id post my 1st hand that i got involved in and see can someone do a calculation for me and after trying these a few times ill be grand then and able to do my own. I am reading about this in Skalankys Theory Book but dont want to skip ahead as the calculations are basic so far and i just want to get a better understanding of calulating as i move forward in the book as there is alot of this.

Holdem No Limit - $0.2 BB

MP+1 ($11.31) [punker_kb ]
MP+2 ($39.88) [Hero]
CO ($37.70) [lucifil666 ]
Button ($40.23) [ST3VE ]
SB ($14.16) [WAYS ]
BB ($11.73) [gail1861 ]
UTG ($25.46) [Harold S ]
UTG+1 ($22.78) [Ive Got ]
UTG+2 ($8.23) [Heybaberib ]

Hero is MP+2 with Jd, Jh
Preflop: (9 players, $0.3)
Harold S calls $0.20, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.20 and raises $0.80, lucifil666 folds, ST3VE calls $1, WAYS folds, gail1861 calls $0.80, Harold S folds

Flop: As, Ts, 5s (3 players, $3.3)
gail1861 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40 and raises $0.80, ST3VE calls $1.20, gail1861 calls $0.80

Turn: 8d (3 players, $6.9)
gail1861 checks, Hero checks, ST3VE checks

River: 8c (3 players, $6.9)
gail1861 bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80, ST3VE calls $0.80

Results: Hero has Jd, Jh
gail1861 has 3s, Ad
gail1861 wins $8.84 with Two Pair: Aces and 8s

Ok so im likely slightly ahead against 2 random hands here with this disgused pair on the flop and it looked like a weak feeler bet so i re-raised to see if i could get some information. (On hindsight i see my re-raise was as weak as the continuation bet giving any flush draw the odds to call (If they havent already made the flush) and really not giving me any information at all. The good thing is looking through this HH i can see where i went wrong. A raise in the region of $2-$2.50 would have been more like it to cut out the flush draw odds and maybe pair of 10's weak kicker or even and ace giving the texture of the board and i would be folding to any re-raise)

So with not much information on the flop and 2 callers for the sake of this calculation i assume at least 1 of them has an Ace but nobody has a made flush yet and id like to calculate my EV even though it looks obvious its not +EV if he has an ace.

I taught this hand would be a good example because there's a possible made flush, the flush draw and top pair.
I have only 2 outs which i need to hit to improve my hand. The flush draw is on and im basing my calculations on one of them having top pair. I Assume all of these come into play in affecting the formula.

So if someone could be ever so kind to work out the EV calculations but explain what each step is then i can try my own them and see if there are any mistakes.

Hitman Actual

This is complicated to say the least and I'm not sure what you're asking. Is it the EV of getting from flop to river and a showdown? What's your plan for the turn? If a spade comes will you call? If there's betting/all-in's what will you do? There are far too many variables, and any 'formula' you could come up with would be flawed because of this and the assumptions you need to make.

I think you're over-complicating things way too much. EV calculations cant be easily applied to every poker situation. They're easy when the money goes in, or when you're closing the action, more difficult when there might be a couple of decisions still to be made (i.e. you value-bet the river and get CRAI), but much less applicable when there are so many variables in play.

eggie

Dupe.

eggie

Your EV in the above hand is prob zero. I check fold the flop. You are drawing to one out Jc, which could still be useless to a made flush or when another spade hits unless its your other Jack (runner runner quads required most times here).